Gems TV 宝石加工企业

smart_603

又新低了，很高兴。你们说会去到那？ 0.7不是问题。

[ 本帖最后由 臥龍先生 于 29-5-2007 01:28 PM 编辑 ]

大师

酱掉法，0.6应该很快就要来了。

臥龍先生

會不會是個值得趁低買入的好股呢 ?

大师

哈~手痒。。。0.705进，0.735出。千后不到5分钟。。。

大师

每个都在卖，到底谁在买？

大师

GemsTV掌门人谈投资之道
http://www.jrj.com 2006年11月23日 14:51 华尔街日报中文网

Jason Choo　　Jason Choo是彩色宝石加工企业Gems TV Holdings Ltd.的首席执行长。这家公司在泰国进行生产，并通过互联网以及英国的两个家庭购物电视频道来销售产品。它本月在新加坡上市，市值约为11亿新加坡元（约合7.06亿美元）。Gems TV通过发行股票筹得了3.09亿新元用于在美国、中国、日本以及德国扩展业务。Jason Choo持有Gems TV20.5％的股份，他在一年半以前开始担任该公司的首
席执行长。

　　35岁的Jason Choo生于吉隆坡，但是他的大部分童年时光是在加拿大温哥华度过。他在美国科罗拉多学院（Colorado College）获得了经济学学士学位，并于1994年回到东南亚开始为其家族的企业Cathay工作，这家公司在新加坡从事电影分销业务。

　　Jason Choo在2004年以202，100美元在eBay拍得了与沃伦•巴菲特（Warren Buffett）共进午餐的机会，这使他在新加坡远近闻名。巴菲特以其敏锐的投资判断力而成为了全球最富有的人士之一，拍卖所得资金全都捐给了慈善机构。 Jason Choo在新加坡开设的几家酒吧备受衣着考究的年轻才俊们青睐。Jason Choo还是一名被动式投资者，他通过老友运营的一家金融咨询公司LonsdaleCapitalPte.Ltd.安排了诸多投资活动。日前Jason Choo在新加坡的香格里拉大酒店（Shangri-Lahotel）接受了史蒂芬•莱特（Stephen Wright）的采访。

　　《华尔街日报》（以下简称WSJ）：你的第一份工作是什么？你从中学到了什么？

　　Jason Choo：我搬到新加坡为家族涉足电影行业的企业Cathay工作。我当时负责公司的保险工作，曾努力让管理层学会使用电子邮件以及诸如此类的东西。这是一个没多大意义的工作。

　　决不要在家族企业里工作。白天大家讨论的是工作，回家后谈论的还是工作。从来没有休息的时候，这绝不是一种健康的生活方式。家族企业应该由能够胜任这份工作而又不会把工作带回家的人来管理，他可以是家族里的专业人士，也可以是其他专业人士。

　　WSJ：你什么时候开始进行投资？你的投资策略是什么？

　　JasonChoo：我们最终把Cathay卖了，那时我就开始投资了。当时我22岁左右。正如巴菲特所说的那样，我们那时只是“摇摆式投资者”，也就是说，只要碰到好题材，我们就会把投资转向它。这种投资方式大约持续了两年，后来我们意识到这不是长远发展的正确途径。我们四处摇摆的投资方式无异于在拉斯维加斯玩百家乐。我在半年多的时间里拜读了巴菲特的所有着作。书中所讲的所有内容忽然在脑子里融会贯通；我认为如果没有前两年的投资经历，我恐怕不会完全领悟书中的道理。

　　WSJ：现在你如何进行投资？

　　Jason Choo：我们努力找到那些在资本配置方面比我们做得更好的公司及管理团队，如果他们做不到，那就（通过红利以及回购股份等方式）把资金还给我们。我们的想法是，如果我们不愿在一家公司投入1，000万美元的话，我们也不会对它投资10万美元。我们根本没有多样化的投资策略。因为这是获得高于平均水平收益的克星。我们的投资重点集中在一个非常小的公司圈子内，这样就可以更好的理解它们的业务，我们也能够仔细地对它们进行监督。

　　WSJ：你得到的最好的商业建议是什么？

　　Jason Choo：和很多成功人士谈话以及阅读使我在这方面获益匪浅。我学会避开复杂的商业问题，因为你根本无法解决它。把企业尽可能保持简单。第二点也是我要求经理们每天早上做的一件事情，就是看看眼前的状况并提出以下问题：事情本该如此吗？这是我想要的状况吗？当你密切关注某个情况的时候，很容易“不识庐山真面目”。

　　WSJ：一位好经理应该具备哪些特点？

　　Jason Choo：沟通是关键。我告诉管理层，如果有重要的事情需要沟通，千万不要通过电子邮件来做。电子邮件会被收件人以很多种方式进行解读，因为他无法读到其中的语气、看不到肢体语言以及感觉不到对方的感受。我们往往使用视频会议、Skype以及微软（Microsoft）Messenger就重要问题进行实时交流。与管理层进行谈话更加开放，你的姿态在表达：不论我说的正确与否，请给我反馈。电子邮件显然是一个重要的工具，但是对于某些问题，决不要用电子邮件来沟通。

　　WSJ：工商管理硕士（MBA）学位有多重要？

　　Jason Choo：我很幸运所处的职位不需要我再拿一纸文凭。理论上讲，MBA学位不错，但是我更愿意聘用那些有文科教育背景的经理，而不是全部接受商业教育的人。我发现文科学生在横向思维方面比MBA学生好得多。MBA会让你在一条很窄的路上走下去。尽管它有很多可应用的知识，但是企业是一个不断活动的目标。

　　WSJ：你曾经让自己的同事失望过吗？

　　Jason Choo：在本该打电话的情况下，只是发了一封电子邮件，我没有遵守自己制定的首要法则。我不断强调电子邮件的种种问题，却没有以身作则。从中我学到，如果收到的邮件让我感到有点恼怒，觉得必须马上回复的话，我就不回复。事实上我是这样做的，把回复的所有内容都写出来。然后把它们都删掉。一旦把它们都写出来，你就从先前的情绪出跳出来。这时你就能够理智地看待整个状况，然后再给对方打电话。

　　WSJ：你为什么要花费202，100美元与巴菲特共进午餐？

　　Jason Choo：为了感谢他。他间接地教了我很多东西。我们去赴宴的时候就知道他不会告诉我们书中以外的东西。我想了解的是这些投资“教科书”背后的那个人。

　　我们没有花很多时间来谈论投资，为此我遭到很多批评……我也没有问他：你怎么知道一家公司被低估了，因为在他的书中你就可以了解到这些内容。我们确实谈到了投资，他给了我一些建议。他的建议证实我们做的是正确的，而且我们没有错误解读书中所有关于他及其投资哲理的内容。

　　Stephen Wright

disneykcland

0.785 了，24小时涨了11仙。

臥龍先生

Gems TV Holdings –


The manufacturer and television home shopping retailer of jewellery has been appointed the exclusive global outlet for Zultanite, a gemstone,
by Zultanite Gems. It will offer loose Zultanite gemstones and set jewellery via its shopping programmes and website. Zultanite, discovered in the 1980s, 'is considered a rising star in fine jewellery', Gems says. It is found only in the mountainous regions of Anatolia, Turkey.

八月照相館

原帖由 臥龍先生 于 20-6-2007 01:05 PM 发表
Gems TV Holdings –


The manufacturer and television home shopping retailer of jewellery has been appointed the exclusive global outlet for Zultanite, a gemstone,
by Zultanite Gems. It will ...

算是好消息吧！
不知适不适合做个长期投资？
大家有什么意见。

价位曾经达到$1.50呢！

臥龍先生

In March 07, Company opened its third production facility in Thailand, which aims to raise total in house production capacity to 42k/week by end May-07.  Company is adding, and will continue to add, about 100 craftspeople/mth to its workforce to meet rising demand. Company recently announced an increase in its US subscriber base to 31m subscribers and aims to accelerate the expansion of its US subscriber base to 40m by FY08. Plans to expand into new markets are also progressing with Company's Japan subsidiary GemsLondon receiving approval from the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications to be registered as a broadcaster for telecoms services. Company intends to launch its Japanese TV home shopping channel by Oct-07. Similarly, Company intends to enter PRC with an online presence in FY08 and will continue to explore TV opportunities in that Market. Earlier in Oct-06, Company started operations in Germany thru partnership with Gems TV Deutschland, a German TV production company. Company has an option to acquire 40% of the Germany entity, which has a subscriber base of more than 3.3 m.

這兩年會有很多計划, 公司成不成功就得看它進不進得去中國和日本市場了..


[ 本帖最后由 臥龍先生 于 21-6-2007 09:38 PM 编辑 ]

arnofren

这个股票还有潜能吗？

disneykcland

不明朗，因其第3季度的报表很不理想。

arnofren

原帖由 disneykcland 于 7-8-2007 07:01 PM 发表
不明朗，因其第3季度的报表很不理想。

谢谢你的资料！

smart_603

this one will become penny sooner...

臥龍先生

Gems TV Holding (S$0.46) - Weak earnings not a surprise; great bargain now

Expect FY07 results to meet our target

Expect only 16% contributions from the US.

We expect group sales to reach US$140m inFY07, up 9.1% yoy on the back of additional sales from the US market.UK sales (goods only) are likely to post declines in 4Q07 (Apr-Jun),both yoy and qoq, to US$18.8m.
Meanwhile, US sales (goods only)could increase by 12% qoq to US$11.5m. There is no yoy comparison forthe US as the business was only started in mid-Dec 06. Even though weexpect US sales momentum to pick up, the US should only contribute15-16% to group revenue in FY07. FY07 results are expected on 24 Aug.


Costs to weigh down earnings. Three key reasons for our weak FY07 net profit estimate are:

1) a revenue/cost mismatch due to US accounting policies;

2) a rise in outsourced products (from 25% to above 40%), due to supply constraints in the US; and

3) additional costs paid to carriage providers in the US.

We expect the company to report a net profit of US$8.5m,significantly down from US$28.8m in FY06. Recall our warning that thecompany would have more challenges (e.g. supply constraints, developingthe right product mix for new markets) over the next few quarters,starting 4Q07. Weak results shouldnot be a surprise unless they come in far worse than anticipated, whichis unlikely as our numbers are already fairly conservative.


Sub-prime is definitely a concern, but… The extent to which sub-prime mortgage problems in the US could affect real household spending is unclear. But we would assume that most of Gems TV’s customers aremiddle-income consumers, as in the UK. As such, Gems TV’s target groupshould be less sensitive to any credit crunch. Moreover, the latest moveby the Fed to cut a key discount rate has sent strong signals that itis aware of the risks posed by credit market jitters to the US economy.We believe that, at this juncture, both the Fed and Treasury will makeconcerted efforts to restore US economic stability. Looking at the relationship between real disposable income and discretionary spending by US households, it would appear that consumers would continue to spend on nonnecessities.

To some extent, we believe UShouseholds would resort to higher leverage than cut back sharply ontheir discretionary spending. Also, customers have become more sophisticated about jewellery purchases as they seek out the best value, which Gems TV is offering, in our view.

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Outperform. Gems TV’s stock has been mauled by the fear-driven market, falling 50% since its weak 3Q07 results on 14 May. We believe the extent of this decline is not justified, particularly as thecompany is well on its expansionary path. US subscribers are expectedto step up to 45m through Gems TV’s new contract with DISH Network by end-September, well ahead of theoriginal plan of 40m by end-2007. This is positive as the company willhave a larger potential customer base before the festive season begins.Its overseas expansionin Japan is also in place to be fully operational by Nov 07. Chinaexpansion has started with a retail shop in Beijing, mainly forafter-sales service.

We have kept our target price ofS$1.32, based on 15x CY09 P/E and 7x CY09 EV/EBITDA. The stock istrading at 4.5x CY09 P/E and 4.8x EV/EBITDA, while offering a FY07-09EPS CAGR of 98% vs. peers’ 23%. Taking into account management’s entrycost for Gems TV shares prior to the IPO of S$0.37 and an estimatedFY07 net cash per share of S$0.19, we believe the stock is currently irrationally priced. We see a great bargain.

臥龍先生

Gems TV (S$0.58) - 4QFY07 results - Last chance for bargain
Broadly in line. Reported FY07 net profit came in at US$7.6m, 5% below market consensus and 10% below our target. However, taking into account one-time charges relating to IPO expenses of US$662K and allowances for obsolescence of US$540K, normalised net profit was US$8.8m. The key reasons for the weak results were cost explosion in the US, competitive pricing in the UK, expanded personnel costs and set-up
costs in Japan and China. The discrepancy between our numbers and reported net profit stemmed mainly from our lower SG&A assumptions.


Better-than-expected margins. FY07 gross margin (ex-shipping) was 42% better than our 40% estimate. Sales from both the US and UK were stronger than our forecasts by 13% and 5% respectively. Including shipping revenue, gross margin was 46%, 200bp higher. Despite a 31% yoy increase in COGS due to higher outsourced production and gold prices, GEMS managed to keep its gross margins above 40%, in line with its target.


Bottom line to catch up. The favourable topline had not yet translated into bottom-line strength given the rapid rise in costs associated with the overseas expansion. However, we note that GEMS is not even a year into its US expansion. Sales for its first full festive season in the UK were also overwhelming. In our view, net profit has bottomed and is about to turn around, although not in FY08 as costs should continue to rise due to new operations in Japan and China. We would look beyond FY08 for genuine growth given that the revenue/cost mismatch should be settled and each market would make full-year contributions.


Reiterate Outperform. We maintain our EPS forecasts and S$1.32 target price, based on 15x CY09 P/E and 7x CY09 EV/EBITDA. GEMS is trading at merely 6x CY09 P/E, compared to its peer group’s 12x, while offering a FY07-09 EPS CAGR of 98% vs. peers’ 23%. The company also paid a gross dividend per share of 1.50 US cts in FY07, suggesting a 3.9% yield (vs. peers’ 1.0% average). We see a great bargain here.

little_orc

有人还对这GEMS TV有兴趣吗?
能不能够说说看法?

pig^on

原帖由 little_orc 于 29-8-2007 10:54 PM 发表
有人还对这GEMS TV有兴趣吗?
能不能够说说看法?

这支股曾在年初时被几间股票行大力推荐可升到合理价２元以上
然后又被几间股票行大力贬低跌到四毛多钱
价格波动太大
有点被操纵的味道
可怜的散户如果在块多钱进场要亏大本了
虽然这支股已经跌很多了
然后最近又有股票行大力推荐
我就是对她没信心
如果淡马锡有投资我会考虑买
反正市场上还有很多其它值得投资的股