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那几股算是復甦股(RECOVERY STOCK)及值得投資???.
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請問各位,在目前時勢中那几只股才是真正”RECOVERY STOCK”
條件: 1. 股價必須少過RM1.50以下.
2. ROE 不可以超過10以上.
3. 如果五年業績歷史話, 其中几年是作虧本生意, 不可以每年賺錢..
根據我所知,往往所得到回報高于BLUE CHIP股及成長股,有時候回報會低于成長股的回報,也是冷眼所希望買的股.
以我的愚蠢生意眼光,
APLI, SALCON, TEKALA 及 LIONDIV 可以列為復甦股(RECOVERY STOCK)
This week, I bought 1 lot LIONDIV, APLI及SALCON.
任何善意批評本人都可以接受..
不知道各位有任何高見,不妨告訴大家.
本人非常感激各位的指點. 謝謝. |
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发表于 30-8-2004 08:46 PM
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what counter is that ?
can u describe ?
APLI and salcon |
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发表于 30-8-2004 11:27 PM
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tomteohyk 于 30-8-2004 18:55 说 :
請問各位,在目前時勢中那几只股才是真正”RECOVERY STOCK”
條件: 1. 股價必須少過RM1.50以下.
2. ROE 不可以超過10以上.
3. 如果五年業績歷史話, 其中几年是作虧本生意, 不可以每年賺錢..
...
功课做好了吗? 若做好了, post 出来, 这样大家都会给您意见的!
加油喽! !
共勉之。 |
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发表于 30-8-2004 11:49 PM
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tomteohyk 于 30-8-2004 06:55 PM 说 :
請問各位,在目前時勢中那几只股才是真正”RECOVERY STOCK”
條件: 1. 股價必須少過RM1.50以下.
2. ROE 不可以超過10以上.
3. 如果五年業績歷史話, 其中几年是作虧本生意, 不可以每年賺錢..
...
我有點不明白為什麼要這樣選股?
tomteohyk 于 30-8-2004 06:55 PM 说 :
條件: 1. 股價必須少過RM1.50以下.
公司的實際NTA及賺益和股價沒有很直接的關係,不明白為什麼一定要局限於RM1.50以下.要做低價股其實很簡單的,只要拆細就可以了,RM1.50一split成三才0.50sen,一split成十0.15sen;要做高價股其實也很簡單的,只要reverse split就可以了,RM1.50三RS成一就4.50sen,十RS成一就是15.00sen.
tomteohyk 于 30-8-2004 06:55 PM 说 :
條件: 2. ROE 不可以超過10以上.
不解? 可以解釋嗎?
tomteohyk 于 30-8-2004 06:55 PM 说 :
條件: 3. 如果五年業績歷史話, 其中几年是作虧本生意, 不可以每年賺錢..
要實施低買高賣戰術嗎? 那為什麼不找盈利平穩的股支? 又不懂? 可以解釋嗎?
我反認為盈利不平穩的股支很難有大戶基金做骨架,風險很大,可以說掉就掉,而且投機氣氛比較濃.
[ Last edited by kaii on 31-8-2004 at 12:02 AM ] |
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发表于 31-8-2004 01:36 AM
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这是冷眼所说的反向投资法,至于说recovery stock,我认为liondiv还不及lionind。lionind在今年反弹很大,如果债务问题顺利解决,其公司前途无可限量。 |
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![](static/image/common/ico_lz.png)
楼主 |
发表于 31-8-2004 11:03 AM
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APLI COUNTER
年份 DPS EPS PER
1999 0.0 -232 NIL
2000 0.0 11.8 6.2- 13.5
2001 0.0 2.1 18.8 - 48.8
2002 0.0 1.3 25.7 – 75.4
2003 0.0 1.1 28.1 – 50.9
BALANCE SHEET (RM MILION) JUN 01 JUN 02 JUN 03
SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY 98.05 99.69 103.65
LONG TERM ASSETS 88.68 92.60 89.75
CURRENT ASSETS 72.78 62.22 73.29
LONG TERM LIABILITIES 16.95 12.66 14.62
CURRENT LIABILITIES 46.45 42.46 44.78
PROFIT & LOSS (RM MILION)
SALES 136.24 128.74 143.73
EBITDA 17.56 14.49 13.04
INTEREST EXPENSE 2.85 2.49 2.31
PBT 61.80 5.35 3.53
EARNINGS 60.28 3.28 3.98
KEY STATISTICS & RATIOS
NTA/SHARE 0.24 0.24 0.26
D/E RATIO 0.40 0.31 0.38
GROSS MARGIN 20.50 18.18 15.68
ROE 61.48 3.29 3.84
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31/03/2004
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER CURRENT YEAR TO DATE PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
31/03/2004 31/03/2003 31/03/2004 31/03/2003
RM'000 RM'000 RM'000 RM'000
1 Revenue 44,408 35,158 128,040 104,304
2 PBT 4,854 29 15,669 1,649
3 PAT
after tax and minority
interest 4,041 778 12,977 2,549
4Net profit/(loss) for
the period 4,041 778 12,977 2,549
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per shares (sen)
1.16 0.22 3.73 0.73
6Dividend per share (sen)
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR
END
7 Net tangible assets per share (RM) 0.2900 0.2600
APLI 的搖錢樹在越南 開廠曾加產生手套,明年”利潤及營業閣”看頭 |
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楼主 |
发表于 31-8-2004 11:08 AM
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SALCON COUNTER
年份 DPS EPS PER
1999 ?? ?? ??
2000 ?? ?? ??
2001 ?? ?? ??
2002 ?? ?? ??
2003 ?? ?? ??
BALANCE SHEET (RM MILION) JUN 01 JUN 02 JUN 03
SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY NA NA 145.25
LONG TERM ASSETS NA NA 88.61
CURRENT ASSETS NA NA 315.31
LONG TERM LIABILITIES NA NA 1.03
CURRENT LIABILITIES NA NA 253.27
PROFIT & LOSS (RM MILION)
SALES 129.78 153.46 7.51
EBITDA 16.96 16.19 2.24
INTEREST EXPENSE 0.47 1.82 0.07
PBT 16.90 16.88 7.10
EARNINGS 13.97 15.03 6.23
KEY STATISTICS & RATIOS
NTA/SHARE NA NA 0.67
D/E RATIO NA NA 0.40
GROSS MARGIN NA NA 37.98
ROE NA NA 4.29
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
30/04/2004
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER CURRENT YEAR TO DATE PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
30/04/2004
30/04/2003
30/04/2004
30/04/2003
RM'000 RM'000 RM'000 RM'000
1 Revenue 22,535 99,411
2 Profit/(loss) before tax 734 17,326
3
Profit/(loss)
after tax and minority
interest 217 11,189
4
Net profit/(loss) for
the period 217 11,189
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per shares (sen) 0.11 5.90
6
Dividend per share (sen) 0.00 0.00
1. Framework Agreements for water projects in Yunnan Province, People's Republic of China.(The JV Co. will be responsible in supplying potable water to the existing Cheng Gong County and will involve the construction of a water treatment plant with a capacity of 20 MLD and expandable to 60 MLD.)
2.Announcement
Conditional Asset Transfer Agreement with the Construction Bureau of the People's Government Linqu County
(Limited or its nominated subsidiary will undertake, for a period of 30 years the supply of water to the Linqu County including the operation and maintenance of water supply sources, laying and maintaining pipelines, metering and the collection of water revenue. The consumption of water in Linqu County is currently estimated at 15 million litres per day.)
3.Announcement
Investment in new subsidiary, Shandong Changle Salcon Water Supply Company by Salcon Water (HK) Limited
4.Announcement
Salcon Engineering Berhad accepted an award from Jabatan Air Negeri Sembilan
(The total contract value for the Project for the full period amounts to about RM34.1 million.The scope of works is to provide management, supervision, labour, tools and chemicals for a period of up till 31 March 2012 )
5.Announcement
Salcon Berhad signed Head of Agreement with three cities and a county in China
(The abovementioned projects cover a concession period of 50 years and shall be undertaken through joint venture Company to be formed between Salcon Berhad and the respective water supply companies with a proposed equity participation of 75% and 25%. The said projects cover the construction, management and development of drinkable water supply facilities with an estimated cost of RM200 million)
6.Salcon Berhad has today signed a contract agreement worth RM35.0 million with Jabatan Air Sabah on Non-revenue Water Reduction Program for Water Supply Development Project in the District of Sandakan, Sabah
7.
2. |
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![](static/image/common/ico_lz.png)
楼主 |
发表于 31-8-2004 11:11 AM
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LION DIVERSIFIED COUNTER
年份 DPS EPS PER
1999 0.0 - 0.2 NIL
2000 0.0 -10.9 NIL
2001 0.0 -1.0 NIL
2002 0.0 -2.3 NIL
2003 0.0 -0.2 NIL
BALANCE SHEET (RM MILION) JUN 01 JUN 02 JUN 03
SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY 602.3 512.85 505.54
LONG TERM ASSETS 1258.78 1152.51 1015.66
CURRENT ASSETS 454.17 439.62 557.15 LONG TERM LIABILITIES 302.56 256.44 96.41
CURRENT LIABILITIES 569.22 600.05 746.94 PROFIT & LOSS (RM MILION)
SALES 614.37 615.03 616.91
EBITDA 117.25 97.76 121.07
INTEREST EXPENSE 39.43 31.63 26.32
PBT 21.06 6.45 27.37 EARNINGS -3.49 -7.89 -0.61
KEY STATISTICS & RATIOS
NTA/SHARE 1.61 1.35 1.34
D/E RATIO 0.72 0.76 0.73
GROSS MARGIN 50.33 51.74 55.28
ROE -0.58 -1.54 -0.12
LION DIVERSIFIED的搖錢樹在”PARKSON RETAIL GROUP”
雖然”PARKSON RETAIL GROUP”所營業閣在大馬各地不如”JAYA JUSCO”,
但是”PARKSON RETAIL GROUP” 所營業閣在中國非常好.
SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31/03/2004
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER CURRENT YEAR TO DATE PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
31/03/2004
31/03/2003
31/03/2004
31/03/2003
RM'000 RM'000 RM'000 RM'000
1 Revenue 35,580 117,222 405,080 435,570
2 Profit/(loss) before tax 383,446 -869 411,093 13,696
3
Profit/(loss)
after tax and minority
interest 376,265 -1,797 386,440 800
4
Net profit/(loss) for
the period 376,265 -1,797 386,440 800
5
Basic earnings/(loss) per shares (sen) 107.90 -0.52 110.85 0.23
6
Dividend per share (sen) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR
END
7 Net tangible assets per share (RM) 1.9700 1.3400
1)Announcement
Proposed joint-venture between Parkson Investment Pte Ltd ("PIPL") and Kunming Brilliant Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. ("Kunming Brilliant") in Nanning, the Peoples' Republic of China ("PRC")
The Analysis one cash flow statement i hv'nt posted up.
May be later on.
Quite busy now. |
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发表于 31-8-2004 12:27 PM
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发表于 31-8-2004 02:30 PM
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tomteohyk
没有人反感啦~~~~
你这种作风很像 当年的我。。
买股,本来就是要 "反骨" 一点的!!!
欢迎各路人马!!! |
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发表于 31-8-2004 11:53 PM
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tomteohyk,
我顶一顶你。
LIONDIV 与 APLI 我早就当投资股买进。等着开番。
新新投资人,别听我的,自己做功课,切记切记。 |
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发表于 1-9-2004 09:03 AM
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briansam_84 于 31-8-2004 01:36 AM 说 :
这是冷眼所说的反向投资法,至于说recovery stock,我认为liondiv还不及lionind。lionind在今年反弹很大,如果债务问题顺利解决,其公司前途无可限量。
很好,你的看法与我相当一致。
一直以来,我都是喜爱买入复苏股。。所以之前特别留意木材与钢铁价格的去向,我在60分左右就开始留意到lionind了。。重组后,它似乎以变成金狮集团中的宝石了。唯一让我犹豫的地方就是她偏高的债务。八月份木材、纸与钢铁的价格都有扬升的趋向,我想它下季度的业绩应该也能维持在每股9分左右。大家看好的lionDiv反而显得中归中举,没什么好期待!
我喜欢Tekala是因为它够”稳“,在暴雨中也会一样的屹立不倒。还有,它每季度的盈利都会扣除Good will for consolidation。这样诚实的公司倒是少见噢,所以我就很放心的去投机它咯。。 |
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发表于 1-9-2004 05:34 PM
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tanhin 于 31-8-2004 11:53 PM 说 :
tomteohyk,
我顶一顶你。
LIONDIV 与 APLI 我早就当投资股买进。等着开番。
新新投资人,别听我的,自己做功课,切记切记。
我知道LION DIV 起了,但那不关我的事,APLI 会不会起,我不知道,别PM 我。
自己做功课,OK? |
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![](static/image/common/ico_lz.png)
楼主 |
发表于 1-9-2004 07:10 PM
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发表于 1-9-2004 11:09 PM
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tomteohyk兄,
看您post出来的资料, APLI, SALCON, LION DIVERSIFIED。
嗯。。。以保守派的基本分析来看。。。结论是:无话可说!
现在就等您的对这些股的free cashflow进行研究了。。。否则更无话可说了。
冷眼的投资方法, 以反响为主。 暂时小弟对“反响投资法” 研究尚浅。。抱歉, 不能给您好意见了!
不过, 您研究这些股的努力,精神可嘉! 加油喽!
可能您就是第二代 “冷眼” 传人! 加油喽! (我顶一顶您!)
如果是我的话, 我会选 LIONDIV, 因为这只股虽然亏钱, 可是, 它却有向好的一面发展!
我应该会这样选 LIONDIV > APLI > SALCON
上面只是小小意见而已, 如果买了亏钱的话, 后果自负哦!
说说而已, 说说而已! |
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发表于 1-9-2004 11:43 PM
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tomteohyk 于 1-9-2004 07:10 PM 说 :
TANHIN
原來你買進復原股是你的柲秘神聖武器.![](static/image/smiley/default/shocked.gif)
非常榮幸,能跟你買進同樣股.
雖然遲一些,但是無所謂. 最重要是大家一起賺錢吧!
可能在這方面,我是新手上路不如你那有豐富經驗.
還有很多東西需要學習.
...
太客气了,你的分析很不错。我也收益不浅。 |
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发表于 1-9-2004 11:56 PM
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sunway group also recover
besides lion group,
suncon and suncity also recover since 2001,
but the share price also up liao |
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楼主 |
发表于 3-9-2004 07:49 PM
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事实上,salcon 股价落下已经证明我是 失败者。
实际上,TANHIN,糊涂及别人比我好。
之前相关的分析是最初的功课。
备忘录:只可以参考,千万别购买股票,后果自负!
深lu分析(有可能错误的,请纠正):
LION DIVERSIFIED HOLDING BERHAD
商业活动:
1
.Lion Diversified Holding Bhd (LDHB)以前称为 "Chocolate Product"向 Amsteel 购买 "Parkson Retailer Group"耗费达到RM431.82million。
高债务加上现金流量不能流出 (negatif figure from cash opearting activities)强迫amsteel出售价值财产""Parkson Retailer Group"给 LDHB。
看来,amsteel难逃一绝"亏损公司".
Parkson Retailer Group 利润从 1999 - 2002年
RM62.70mil(1999),RM35.30mil(2000),RM30.40mil(2001),RM37.60mil (2002).
60- 70% 销售额贡献from中国国家.30%-40%销售额贡献from马来西亚.
未来,中国零售领域将要面对僵硬竞争包括全球大零售巨人"Wal-Mart"及中国本地大规模零 售公司合并。还早断定一切!!
2.LDHB 子公司 CP Properties Sdn Bhd 建议购买 Aktif Lifestyle retailand 子公司 SunbeamSdn Bhd, Octon Electronics Sdn Bhd and Aktif-Sunway Sdn Bhd 耗费达到 RM1.00.但是LDHB 必须being 担保人关于最近短期的borrowing大约 RM20milion.
LDHB 将面对高风险如果Aktif Lifestyle Corporate Berhad 不能交纳债务.
除之外,Aktif Lifestyle 生意每年亏损.
取决于如何LDHB 管理Aktif Lifestyle retail.
没有执行.
2003年
Parkson retailer group 有36 branch在 中国,25 branch 在马来西亚.
Aktif Lifestyle 有5 branch 在马来西亚.
这购买将提高公司竞争力地位在马来西亚零售领域.
零售领域总是----- 销售额大,利润幅度小.
3.LDH management Sdn Bhd 购买 BAndar Mahkota Cheras 耗费达到RM156.78mil from Narajaya Sdn Bhd.
LDH will 购买 lion corp bhd about 24.68% stake. 耗费达到 rm226.85milion of par 1.
4.LDHB出卖50%stake 中国bewery 生意 to Belgian brewing giant interbrew about US131.5milion.
(RM499.7mil for the 50 per cent stake in 中国bewery生意 and RM199.98 million in security deposit for an option to buy remaining 50 per cents.
不合理地 如果LDHB要保留50%股分,但是没有管理权利.
利润只可以放在 profit of share associated company户之下
将来出卖其它50%股分.
这是好消息因为bewery 生意面对困境.很多对手出售bewery价格便宜.It cost 利润幅度减小.
2003年
bewery 生意 带来利润RM23milion EBIDTA
PArkson retailer group and Likom 带来利润 RM120milion.
Likom - manufactur computer casing company.
LION DIVERSIFIED HOLDING BERHAD also buy likom from lion group.
Lion Corp now owns two main board - listed assxociated
1. 41.5% in lion Industries
2. 35% in Amsteel Corp
3. 90% hot-rolled coil manufacture megasteel sdn bh.
Lion Industries in turn control
1. 59.5% LDHB
2. 83.7% LFIB
终结,
1. Best company in lion group - Lion Forest Industries.
2. Second best - Lion Industries and Lion Divefisied.
Regard cash flow analysis, just do own research.
Too much time need to write in mandarin and analysis.
Waste my treasure time and spirit.
regards. |
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发表于 3-9-2004 09:09 PM
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终结,
1. Best company in lion group - Lion Forest Industries.
yea, absolutely agree with you...the bad thing is, LFIB is lending its asscociate 100million ringgit low interest loan |
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发表于 3-9-2004 11:07 PM
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tomteohyk 于 3-9-2004 07:49 PM 说 :
事实上,salcon 股价落下已经证明我是 失败者。
实际上,TANHIN,糊涂及别人比我好。
之前相关的分析是最初的功课。
备忘录:只可以参考,千万别购买股票,后果自负!
深lu分析(有可能错误的,请纠正):
...
别灰心,我不买salcon 是因为我没有研究。投资要做到八王及老虎所说的“手中有股,心中无股”。
Lion Diversified 第四quarter 营业 increased 144.94%
每股盈利 5.88 cents
股息 5.0 cents
[ Last edited by tanhin on 4-9-2004 at 10:22 AM ] |
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