[转载]Buy American. I Am. By WARREN E. BUFFETT

Focus

October 17, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This dXXXXXn leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

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Focus

Buy American, Warren E. Buffett, he is!
Buy Malaysia. Anyone?!!!

巴菲特买的是美国的前途，
有谁看好马来西亚的前途呢？

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goodluck88

buffet有的是庞大的资金，小小的散户是不能跟他的方法的。。。

cct2048

原帖由 goodluck88 于 3-12-2008 11:20 AM 发表
buffet有的是庞大的资金，小小的散户是不能跟他的方法的。。。

李光耀：奧巴馬財經團隊6個月內可見成果   2008-12-02

      新加坡內閣資政李光耀昨天表示，美國總統當選人奧巴馬已任命他的新財經團隊，團隊成員將在未來三到六個月內透過措施決定美國是陷入長期且深或中期且淺的衰退。

     根據新加坡媒體今天報導，李光耀昨天在香港出席美國前總統柯林頓發起的「柯林頓全球計畫（Clinton Global Initiative）」亞洲會議，在與柯林頓對話時做出上述表示。

     不過，李光耀認為，面對十幾年來最嚴重的金融危機，不可能看到美國經濟短期內很快地復甦。

      李光耀說，只有這些人可以告訴你，哪些是當前需要解決的困難，這些人是美國出色且最具經驗及思維者，例如伏克爾（Paul Volcker）、薩默斯（Larry Summers），和蓋特納（Tim Geithner），還有一個委員會在他們背後。

      李光耀說，有信心奧巴馬任命的財經團隊，可以扭轉疲軟的經濟。

      談到這次金融風暴何時能結束，李光耀認為，相信半年內這場風暴仍難以解決，但可以訂定中、長期方案，讓全球經濟復甦過來。

       李光耀指出，由美國次級房貸引爆的金融海嘯，除非能為房地產找出底價，再設法在這個底價上為房地產增值，否則美國就會像日本一樣出現通貨緊縮，並在預期個人財產減少下，失去消費的動力。

       李光耀強調，現在的問題不是通貨膨脹，而是通貨緊縮。如果人人都貧窮了，就不願消費。

      李光耀也和柯林頓談到再生能源、水源和環境等諸多問題。