|
发表于 23-7-2008 05:18 PM
|
显示全部楼层
DiGi.Com
“Breathless” Yellow Man not blue yet
Buy (Unchanged)
TP: RM26.20 (from RM25.20) Current Price: RM23.60
- DiGi’s 1H08 PAT of RM588.5m (+18.6% YoY) was in line with our and
market expectations.
- EBITDA margins were slightly lower (1H08 -1ppt YoY; 2Q08 -0.8ppts
YoY) while subscriber net adds were modest (2Q08 +1.3% QoQ; 1H08
+10.2% YoY) – both within expectations.
- Maintain Call but raise TP to RM26.20 as we roll-over our valuation to
7x mid-2010 EV/EBITDA (vs RM25.20; 7x 2009 EV?EBITDA) in line
with an expected stronger 3Q08.
Modest QoQ growth within expectations. Based on competitive activity in
1H08, we expected DiGi to post a modest 2Q08 (PAT +2.8% YoY; EBITDA
+0.2% YoY). We think DiGi focused on strengthening ARPUs, deepening
existing subscribers’ usage as well as converting prepaid users to its postpaid
plans. We think this helped translate into a 9.7% QoQ growth in postpaid
subscribers and a 12.4% QoQ growth in postpaid ARPUs.
More blues than yellows... Prepaid subscribers grew by 9,000 net
subscribers or only 0.2% QoQ, with prepaid ARPUs staying flat QoQ at
RM55/mth while prepaid AMPU was up 2mins/mth or only 1.2% QoQ. This is in
stark contrast to the over 4% QoQ net subscriber growth boasted by Celcom
since 2Q07.
…but “breathless”-ness not unexpected. DiGi was in more of a defensive
mode for the prepaid sector in 1H08. This may continue into 2H08, if it
continues to pursue growth in the postpaid segment as the more appealing of
the two segments in light of (i) impending MNP at end-3Q08 or 4Q08, (ii) to-belaunched
(mobile) broadband services in 4Q08 or 1Q09, and (iii) a continued
push by unlisted new entrant U Mobile. In fact, trade sources speak of U
Mobile registering 0.1m users to-date. Our expectations are for U Mobile and
other players outside of the 3 incumbents to total 0.5m subscribers at end-
2008. Anything less will afford upside risk to our estimates for the incumbents –
assuming price competition remains healthy.
Buy: Yellow Man can outlast its rivals. DiGi declared an interim dividend of
57sen/sh tax-exempt, in line with expectations. Maintain Buy on weakness but
raising TP to RM26.20 based on 7x mid-2010 EV/EBITDA (previously RM25.20
based on 7x 2009 EV/EBITDA) in line with regional celcos. Downside risk is
buffered by a forecast gross dividend yield of 6.8%. There is upside potential
from a potentially more robust 2H08 if DiGi is able to benefit from seamless
MNP implementation, does not experience further delays in the roll-out of 3G
services, and contains the impact of higher inflation on its operating (and
equipment) costs.
DiGi.Com – Summary Earnings Table
FYE Dec (RM m) 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F 2010F
Turnover 3,652.5 4,362.6 5,156.2 5,619.0 6,554.3
EBITDA 1,694.7 2,110.0 2,391.0 2,613.7 3,039.4
Pretax Profit 1,087.1 1,445.3 1,723.9 1,900.3 2,338.0
Net Profit Ex. EI 805.7 1,062.6 1,275.7 1,425.2 1,753.5
EPS Ex. EI (sen) 107.4 141.7 164.1 183.3 225.5
EPS Ex. EI growth (%) 71.1 31.9 15.8 11.7 23.0
PE Ex. EI (x) 22.0 16.7 14.4 12.9 10.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 8.3 7.5 6.8 5.7
Div Yield (%) 10.4 9.7 6.8 7.6 9.3
Net Gearing (x) Cash Cash Cash Cash Cash
ROE (%) 40.3 63.8 75.1 76.1 85.8
P/BV (x) 11.8 13.3 18.6 15.9 12.6
Consensus Net Profit (RM m) 1,169.0 1,260.0 1,354.0
Source: Aseambankers |
|