【Public Bank 交流专区 3】花旗说大众是亚洲最贵的银行股

ThermoFisher

多重因素衝擊下半年業績　銀行股盈利前景嚴峻

2008年9月3日
報導 - 梁志華

（吉隆坡2日訊）儘管銀行領域在08年第二季的整體業績表現，還算符合預期，不過，在經濟放緩、政治不穩定，及通脹高企等多重衝擊下，「下半年將面對更嚴峻的挑戰」已是同業的共識，為此，分析員下修對銀行業的盈利預測。

銀行領域在08年第二季的業績表現，大致上符合市場與分析員預期，惟國貿資本（EONCAP）斯人獨憔悴，因為一次過的貸款虧損撥備金，而在次季陷入虧損狀態。

亞歐美投資銀行研究主管邱武益指出，他所研究的6只銀行股，在第二季的整體核心淨利取得不俗表現，按季與按年分別上揚10.5%與11.2%。雖然營運成本與貸款虧損撥備上揚，但是淨利息收入還是保持穩健表現。

他指出，銀行領域依然保持在相當健康的水平，貸款持續成長，資產素質也有所改善。

平均貸款利率在7月份繼續處於下滑趨勢，從6月份的6.08%下跌至6.02%，主要因為銀行同業的激烈競爭，以及銀行體系資金充裕。但是，銀行領域的資產素質不跌反升，淨呆帳率進一步下滑，從2.7%改善至2.5%。

貸款成長在7月份寫下9.9%的表現，比較6月份的11.7%，主要來自家庭與商業貸款，兩者按年分別上揚8.8%與9.4%。7月份的貸款前瞻指數也保持穩健的表現，貸款申請按年增長11.9%，而貸款批發則按年上揚2.3%。

下修貸款成長預測

儘管如此，益資利研究分析員指出，7月份的貸款成長，也暴露出銀行領域在下半年的盈利風險。貸款成長從11.7%放緩至9.9%，反映出貸款業務方面的成長開始退色。

商業貸款指數的疲弱表現，更進一步顯示整體貸款成長，在未來的月份將呈下滑趨勢。基於大馬的經濟成長在08與09年，料將只有5.5到5.7%與5.2到5.4%的水平，分析員將這兩年的貸款成長預測，分別下修至7到8%與6到7%。

梁志華經濟成長放緩料將對消費支出造成負面衝擊，對於那些貸款偏向家庭或消費領域的銀行，如大眾銀行、豐隆銀行及大馬證券銀行等，預期將面對較高的風險。

邱武益表示，「下半年將會面對更嚴峻的挑戰」，已是銀行同業的一個共識。全球經濟放緩、政治不穩定，以及通脹高企，料將成為銀行領域的關鍵風險所在。

儘管通脹壓力還未影響到銀行的資產素質，不過，他相信呆帳水平在第三季將會提高。

整體而言，他預期銀行領域在08與09年的淨利，將取得12.7%與8.7%的成長，低於上季預測的14.4%與9.1%。

ThermoFisher

分析員下調銀行股今明年財測
即時新聞 國內財經  2008-09-02 17:42

（吉隆坡）國內銀行領域次季表現平穩，不過營運環境挑戰增加，在呆賬率可能走高與貸款成長偏低影響盈利收入下，分析員維持銀行股“中和”評級，不過卻下調今明年財測。

雖然如此，益資利研究推薦買進大資本及擁有高股本回酬的股項，如大眾銀行（PBBANK,1295,主板金融組）、土著聯昌（COMMERZ,1023,主板金融組）與豐隆銀行（HLBANK,5819,主板金融組）；至於亞歐美研究則推薦業務穩健的大眾銀行。

綜合銀行業盈利表現，次季總盈利按年僅微漲2%，按季甚至下滑31%；領域核心淨利則按季上揚10.5%，按年達11.2%。而表現最佳的是興業資本（RHBCAP,1066,主板金融組） 、艾芬控股（AFFIN,5185,主板金融組）與大眾銀行，各自盈利按年增長67.1%、30.5%與13.2%。最差表現者為國貿資本（EONCAP,5266,主板金融組），主要是支付長年呆賬率的一次過撥備達1億9400萬令吉。

无花

Note To Editors:
This press release is issued by  
Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Dr. Teh Hong Piow
Founder & Chairman of Public Bank
  
29 August 2008
   
Budget 2009

The Budget 2009 is a well-crafted budget by the Government which should ease the financial burden of low and medium-income households and businesses, particularly SMEs, who are faced with rising cost of living and operating cost. Equally important is that the Budget 2009 clearly is geared towards supporting domestic economic activity, enhances the country's competitiveness and resilience to withstand external challenges.

The Government clearly recognises that the Malaysian economy will face significant challenges due to increasing external economic uncertainties and high global inflation. Some of the major developed economies are already slowing down, compounded by the effects of the credit crisis and financial market turbulence whilst high inflation have taxed household income considerably. Also, signs are growing that the emerging market economies are unlikely to be spared from the weakening global economic trend.

Amidst this challenging economic backdrop, the Budget 2009 is a positive counter cyclical budget. In particular, the proposed increase in public spending on infrastructure projects in 2009 should serve as a stimulus to the economy, particularly to private investment and private consumption.

Coupled with the cut in the corporate tax rate announced earlier in the Budget 2008, the proposed measures in the Budget 2009 to ensure the development of all five growth corridors, the tourism sector and small and medium enterprises should further stimulate domestic activity and thus cushion the economy from the external slowdown through private investment and private consumption. These measures to boost private investment would help cushion the economy from weak external demand.

Despite the expansionary stance, the Government remains committed to its fiscal discipline and prudence as the budget deficit is expected to fall from 4.8% of GDP in 2008 to 3.6% in 2009. This is important in order to anchor investor confidence. This fiscal prudence is clearly shown in the expected modest and decreasing level of the budget deficit and also in the larger surplus of the current account of the Federal Government in 2009. As the fiscal deficit is due to higher developmental expenditure, the Budget 2009 enhances future productive capacity of the economy and also the Government's capacity to move towards a budget surplus when the Malaysian economy resumes a higher growth trajectory in the future.

In terms of financing the deficit, the Government is not expected to have major constraints given the high level of liquidity in the Malaysian economy. As such, like previous budgets, the Budget 2009 is not expected to cause any crowding out of private investment.

This budget should support the Malaysian economy to achieve the projected 5.4% GDP growth for 2009. This rate of economic growth remains respectable, considering major growth headwind from abroad. Together with Bank Negara Malaysia's accommodative monetary policy and stable interest rates, the GDP growth target is realistic.

Furthermore, the economy has strong fundamentals to support the growth outlook. In particular, the banking sector remains strong and healthy to further support the economy as reflected by the industry's high capitalisation, ample liquidity and high and improving asset quality.


Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Dr. Teh Hong Piow
Founder and Chairman
Public Bank

ss24

布林频带再度微微打开，成交量高于14VMA，MACD持续走好，MFI在中等水平没变化，RSI微跌在中等水平，STOCHASTIC K线没变化。

布林频带再次出现打开是好现象，但仍有待MFI、RSI、STOCHASTIC K线增强才有望突破阻力区。

阴阳烛图：今天出现Grave Stone doji，显示延续前一天的犹疑不决，接下来如果出现阴烛，就能被确认为这次反弹的反转信号。

支持在10.10，10.00，9.95，阻力在10.20，10.30，10.40

SuperRahman

希望它再突破一点点！　加油！

ThermoFisher

短期目标价 = 10.50   

ss24

我认为如果能够突破到10.50，反而值得继续持有，因为突破了10.40后，有机会更上一层楼；当然，这是指稳定的突破，不是突然间的突破。

现在问题是PBBANK能否突破10.10-10.40的阻力区，如果能够，就有机会重返上升轨道，不然，就会出现横摆／继续下滑（如果再次跌破10.00）的现象。

曼联资本

原帖由 弹煮 于 2-9-2008 02:10 PM 发表
偶一年保费4k++，那么省到的钱应该不止80块~~ “几 come 计“

Int. = Interest
LC = Late Charge, 不记得 $5 还是 $10 了。。

如果您的是每年缴费的就要小心哦！！！预期忘了要给利息15%-18%
1. 4K * 18% / 12 = $60(Int.) 再加 $5(LC) = 65
2. 4K * 15% / 12 = $50(Int.) 再加 $5(LC) = 55

一年省80，迟或忘了一个月就赔了。。。

每月缴费的也好不到哪。。。
每月大概 $333 保费
$333 * 18% / 12 = $5 再加 $5 = $10

还有年费 $80  

ss24

布林频带继续打开，成交量高于14VMA，MACD持续走好，MFI微升，RSI没变化，STOCHASTIC K线升至强势区。

10日平均线和20日平均线有形成黄金交叉的迹象，配合着布林频带的打开，成交量仍然保持着动力，其他指标开始走强，股价开始了另一轮的冲势，当前阻力为10.20及10.30。

阴阳烛图：没有出现阴烛，反转不成立，股价继续回弹，惟上影线仍在，卖压仍在。

支持在10.10，10.00，9.95，阻力在10.20，10.30，10.40

弹煮

原帖由 曼联资本 于 4-9-2008 07:30 PM 发表

Int. = Interest
LC = Late Charge, 不记得 $5 还是 $10 了。。

如果您的是每年缴费的就要小心哦！！！预期忘了要给利息15%-18%
1. 4K * 18% / 12 = $60(Int.) 再加 $5(LC) = 65
2. 4K * 15% / 12 = $50(Int ...

关于ocbc信用卡缴付大东方保险的事情，已经有了结果。
我向ocbc客服专员询问过，他们说“没有cash rebate这回事”。
累计积分，然后redeem cash来缴付保费就有。
依此来看，只有大众银行和ING合作的信用卡是唯一提供保单现金回扣的优惠。

publicpang

KHOKHOKHO前天才说你失踪很久了.....那么快你就跑出来鸟..

无花

PB-ING 的也是一样. 要redeem cash.
有得Redeem 好过没有,毕竟Redeem后就是cash 了

[ 本帖最后由 无花 于 4-9-2008 09:08 PM 编辑 ]

弹煮

他的redemption条件简直就是“瘟笨”！
要累计2300分才可以兑换到十块钱！相等于0.4%。
偶倒不如charge过去citibank shell卡？少少都有0.75%。

傻人最有傻福

原帖由 弹煮 于 4-9-2008 09:11 PM 发表
他的redemption条件简直就是“瘟笨”！
要累计2300分才可以兑换到十块钱！相等于0.4%。
偶倒不如charge过去citibank shell卡？少少都有0.75%。

少用信用卡吧.....

无花

信用卡是付账的一种方式,但是很多人就是把他当做借钱的方法

弹煮

偶每次都准时还钱的，您放心～
偶自认是精明消费者
有rebate都不要？

klon91

弹 煮， 对 于IOI 的 走 势 您 怎 么 看？

弹煮

非常抱歉，近来没看股市～

chopnel

原帖由 弹煮 于 4-9-2008 10:32 PM 发表
非常抱歉，近来没看股市～

姐姐也封笔了？

origen

FinanceAsia 选择大众银行为亚洲最好的银行。。

新闻如下：

Public Bank wins Best Asian Bank award
By The Editors  |  5 September 2008  
At last night's Country Awards dinner we announced our choice of the best bank in Asia.


Public Bank has been named the Best Asian Bank by FinanceAsia. The decision was announced at the magazine's Country Awards for Achievement Dinner, held in Hong Kong last night.

"The banks that are shortlisted for this award are whom you might expect, the cream of Asia’s banks," says Lara Wozniak, editor of FinanceAsia. "The decision on the winning bank is a highly quantitative one – with each bank scored on a number of key performance metrics. I am pleased to say that Public Bank scored the highest of the eleven shortlisted banks.”

The Best Asian Bank award is given to the bank that ranks highest among the eleven banks that have individually won our Best Bank award for each country. We ranked the banks by a series of metrics and also by their scores in Standard & Poor’s Bank Fundamental Strength Ratings. We looked at 12 metrics: return on assets, return on equity, profit per employee, total profit, total assets, percentage of net income derived from fee business, market capitalisation, NPL ratio, growth rate, number of employees, price-to-book ratio and net interest margin. The best-ranked in each metric got 11 points and the lowest-ranked got 1 point.

We then overlaid this with S&P’s Bank Fundamental Strength rating, which measures a bank’s strength, and graded them with an A rating getting the most points and an E rating the least. The S&P rating got a 25% weighting in the overall score.

At the end of this point scoring system, Public Bank emerged as the Best Asian Bank. The eleven shortlisted banks were: ICBC (China), HDFC Bank (India), BRI (Indonesia), Shinhan Bank (South Korea), MCB Bank (Pakistan), DBS (Singapore), Bank of Philippine Islands (Philippines), Siam Commercial Bank (Thailand), Public Bank (Malaysia), Chinatrust (Taiwan) and Sacombank (Vietnam). HSBC (which won the Best Bank award for Hong Kong) is excluded on the basis that it is a global bank.