危机可能已经见底了，不过。。。

tanhy

As 'cash for clunkers' ramps up, new cars sell outAs 'clunkers' program reaches new stage, dealers struggling to keep enough new cars on lots

NEW YORK (AP) -- The nation's car dealers have a new worry: they're running out of vehicles.

[size=1em]As the "cash-for-clunkers" program reaches its next chapter, and consumers pour into showrooms, some dealers say their stock of new cars -- especially for fuel-efficient smaller models -- is waning.
[size=1em]At Larry Miller Honda in Boise, Idaho, about two-thirds of the car lot is empty. The dealership is nearly out of 2009 models -- something that usually doesn't happen until the late fall.
[size=1em]And the situation is so dire at a Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep dealership in Beaver Springs, Pa., that the owner, Michael Andretta, is essentially shutting down this weekend to repave his car lot.
[size=1em]"I'm out of cars," Andretta said. "I do not have a single car in my dealership that qualifies for anything."
[size=1em]Such a scenario amounts to a complete shift from earlier in the year, when hard-hit dealers saw cars pile up as consumers largely shunned big-ticket purchases.
[size=1em]It also reflects the rampant popularity of the incentive program, which gives car owners vouchers of up to $4,500 to trade in older, gas-guzzling vehicles for new, cleaner varieties.
[size=1em]On Friday, President Barack Obama approved another $2 billion to extend the program until Labor Day, putting consumers back in the car-buying mood. The program's first $1 billion ran out in about a week.
[size=1em]However, industry officials say shoppers now searching for deals may need to be more flexible, given the dwindling number of cars on many lots. Customers hoping for a blue vehicle, for instance, may need to settle for a white one instead, said John McEleney, the chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association.
[size=1em]"eople are having to maybe make a second or third choice," he said.
[size=1em]The association's chief economist, Paul Taylor, said in a statement Friday that "the overall inventory of passenger cars and light trucks can support another month of robust new vehicle sales" as automakers ramp up production.
[size=1em]Still, even as car lots thin, some wonder whether the new infusion of government cash into the clunkers program is actually weakening consumers' resolve to go out and make a deal.
[size=1em]During the first phase of the program, which began last month, consumers flocked into dealerships, worried that they'd miss out otherwise as the money ran out. Now, shoppers may not feel as pressured.
[size=1em]At Crown Ford in Lynbrook, N.Y., sales manager Anthony Ciuffo said Saturday that walk-in traffic had slowed down at his dealership, although phone calls remained steady.
[size=1em]"It seemed that there was more sense of urgency prior to passing the bill," he said. "eople feel that they have a longer window of opportunity."
[size=1em]Ciuffo said sales had been brisk earlier in the week, and that his dealership had sold out of the Focus sedan and mid-size Escape SUV -- two of Ford's most popular cash-for-clunkers vehicles. Like many dealers interviewed, Ciuffo said additional cars should arrive in about a week to 10 days.
[size=1em]But John Rogin, who owns a Buick dealership in Livonia, Mich., said he wasn't expecting the same frenzied pace that he witnessed earlier, since many of those who could afford a new car already jumped at the chance to do so when the program debuted.
[size=1em]"This is really going to slow up," he said. "It's not going to accelerate from here."
[size=1em]What's more, he said he's beginning to notice a changing consumer sentiment. The early excitement that came with the program is slowly morphing into bitterness among consumers discovering that their vehicles don't qualify for vouchers, he said.
[size=1em]To be eligible, vehicles must have a combined city/highway mileage of 18 miles per gallon or less when they were new.
[size=1em]"Right now, it's, 'Oh well, I don't qualify,' " he said.
[size=1em]But, he said, those ineligible are now wondering: "What about me?"
[size=1em]To be sure, dealers say they are happy with the program and thrilled with the increase in business.
[size=1em]Paul R. Smith, general manager of a Chevy dealership in East Hartford, Conn., said the number of prospective buyers has doubled -- to between 20 and 25 per day from 10 -- in his showroom where car roofs sport signs that read, "If your car qualifies, this car qualifies."
[size=1em]The Chevy dealership, on a strip occupied by several others, has sold 25 cars in the cash-for-clunkers program so far. Still, Smith worries about how many cars he'll have left until 2010 models arrive in November.
[size=1em]"We're running out of inventory," he said. "I'm very concerned."
[size=1em]
[size=1em]美国政府真的是无所不能，之前的1 billion 在1个礼拜就派完，现在又加多2个billion
[size=1em]迟点可能会推出cash for old pcs, cash for old LVs, cash for old underwear

tanhy

Jobs Report: Waiting for Further Confirmation of Recession's End

[click to enlarge charts]

Non-farm payrolls fell
-247k
in the month of July according to the BLS. Also, positive revisions were made to May now
-303k
(previously 322k) and June now
-443k
(previously 467k). Details of the report were as follows;
Goods-producing
-128
Construction
-76
Manufacturing
-52
Service-providing
-119
Retail trade
-44
Professional and business services
-38
Education and health services
-17
Leisure and hospitality
+9
Government
+7

The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to
9.4%
from 9.5% the previous month. However, rather than being a sign of an improving labor market it is simply a result of a drop in the participation rate of
0.2
percentage points, or put another way,
-422k
individuals left the civilian labor force in July.

The picture of long term unemployment continues to get worse with the percentage of the those unemployed for 27 weeks or more rising to a new record of
33.8%, easily surpassing the previous peak of 26% reached in Jun 1983.
As David Rosenberg noted, there are a few anomalies in this month's data that make things look a little better than they might otherwise: Auto-sector jobs saw their biggest rise in 11 years which may have had spillover to other manufacturing jobs during the month. Also, the government added jobs in July after shedding them in May and June.
Still, the above anomalies don’t negate the continuing trend of less bad economic data. That doesn’t mean that the unemployment rate has stopped going up. I still expect the unemployment rate to breach
10%
by year end. However the recession is at or very close to an end, although I’d like to see a confirmation in readings such as industrial production and capacity utilization before making that call.

美国政府又被抓到出猫，单单7月份就有422k人从统计消失, 怪不得失业%会跌

tanhy

The Congressional Budget Office [CBO] put out its estimate of the Federal budget deficit for the current year (10 months) through July [emphasis added]:
Monthly Budget Review
(Congressional Budget Office, August 6, 2009)

The federal budget deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2009 reached $1.3 trillion, CBO estimates, close to $880 billion greater than the deficit recorded through July 2008.
Outlays rose by almost $530 billion (or 21 percent) and revenues fell by more than $350 billion (or 17 percent) compared with the amounts recorded during the same period last year. The estimated deficit reflects outlays of $169 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program [TARP], recorded on a net-present-value basis adjusted for market risk…

The budget deficit last year was high, but we are beating it by $880 billion. Oh joy.
The CBO suggests that this estimate understates things because it just includes payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and does not include their total operations, which are horrendous money sinks.
For example,
Zero Hedge
has been reading Fannie Mae’s
Second Quarter Supplement, which provides a breakdown of troubled loans suggesting that Fannie Mae loan has nearly $1 trillion in troubled loans. Who knows how much more Freddie Mac would add? Zero Hedge reports [emphasis added]:

…The report describes FNM’s exposure to problematic classes of mortgages on their book.
That total comes to a whopping .9 Trillion. The total book of business is $2.7 Trillion, fully 32% of their book is troubled...

CBO writes this about the hit we are taking from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The budget deficit estimate:

…includes net cash payments of $83 billion in support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, although CBO believes that those two entities should be considered federal operations and that the full scope of their activities should be incorporated in the budget in a manner similar to the TARP.CBO estimates that spending increases and revenue reductions stemming from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 [ARRA] have totaled more than $125 billion so far this year (excluding the impact on the budget from the effects that the legislation has had on the economy)…

So, this budget deficit estimate probably underestimates the actual deficit we are incurring. Additional problem areas exist too. For example, the Federal government has taken on an increasing role in funding unemployment benefits (which are up sharply) and Medicaid spending (also up sharply) that normally would be picked up by the states.
CBO continues:

…Outlays topped $3.0 trillion for the first 10 months of the fiscal year,
growing by 21 percent compared with outlays through July of last year-or if the estimate is adjusted to reflect the shifts in payment dates, by 20 percent. Payments for the TARP and net cash disbursements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac account for nearly half (or $252 billion) of the increase over last year.
Spending for unemployment benefits is more than 2½ timeswhat was spent in the first 10 months of 2008 because of higher unemployment and legislation that increased the amount and duration of benefits. Federal spending for health care has also grown rapidly.Medicaid spending grew by 24 percent, largely because of a provision in ARRA that temporarily increases the share of Medicaid costs paid for by the federal government…

So, we are in record territory here, both in terms of budget deficits and in terms of total spending. For example, spending has already topped $3 trillion and there are still two months to go. The higher spending tab for unemployment and Medicaid is currently a subject of dispute with governors of many states. The Feds are picking up the tab now, but they want states to begin doing so. Unfortunately, the states are generally broke also, with California, Michigan, New York leading the way.

tanhy

If Americans Do Not Return to Work, There Is No Recovery

First, a historical note...

US equities have just come off their best July since 1989. Overall, the market is up over 8% for the year.
But if we look backward (after all, hindsight is 20/20), March 1989 also saw a huge run up. It was followed by an even stronger rally in July, during which volume dried up. It appears the same is happening now. What came next in 1989 was a big sell-off in September, followed by an even greater one in October.
Don't look now, but history tends to repeat itself.
Also, consider the fundamental picture. We have rallied 48% from the March lows on the back of what? Good earnings? Good employment figures? Good spending figures? Expanding GDP? No.
We have rallied based on one of the largest and most concerted propaganda campaigns ever waged, supported by government stimulus. But no government can stimulate forever. The bottom line is this, if Americans do not return to work, THERE IS NO RECOVERY. Memorize this line. Post it on your refrigerator, your mirror, your dashboard – wherever!
So maybe now you're asking yourself, "Aren't the unemployment numbers getting better?"
Well, let's see...
Verizon – 8,000 jobs cut
Motorola – 7,000
Microsoft – 5,000
Untied Technologies – 8,000
HSBC – 6,100
Anglo American – 19,000
Avon – 2,500
Goodyear Tire – 5,000
GM – 10,000
Nissan Motors – 20,000
Panasonic – 15,000
PNC Bank – 5,800

Many of these will be released in the third and fourth quarters. No doubt there are plenty more we haven't heard from yet. Frankly, I couldn't list the thousands of companies and millions of jobs lost in this write-up. That's just a sampling. But let's get to some hard and fast figures.
According to Seeking Alpha, 13 million Americans will lose their benefits by years' end. So if unemployment claims are falling, people must be getting back to work. Right?
WRONG!
They are exhausting their benefits. There are 30 million people in the United States on food stamps. There are only 200 million working-age Americans (age 15–64). Is there any wonder why the Administration is NOW saying they will have to raise taxes on the middle class to fund their programs?
Unemployment has been estimated by many good economists as being around 20%. Unfortunately for these people, their nanny-government lifeboats are slowly running out of air.
Those 3 million people who lost their jobs in the second half of last year? Once you factor in their dependants, that equals 10 million people who have no income and no savings.

And how about the 4 million others who lost their jobs in the first half of this year? They will be next. The numbers get so depressing, I hate to even count them up.
As I have said before, unemployed people don't spend money. They don't buy technologies, or durables, or even pay their mortgage. Bankruptcies are up 600% in this recent downturn. And that includes the time after Congress affected new rules to make bankruptcy harder.
So who is going to pay for anything when they are struggling to buy groceries?
If the equity averages are already rallying on the back of these horrible stats, there is nowhere to go but down when the real truth sets in.
And we have seen this corollary frequently in recent months. When stocks and risk assets fall, so do the currencies, and the dollar rises. We are a long way from being out of the woods on this retracement.
So why do I cite all this doom and gloom about the United States? Believe me, there's plenty more to go around. Because the fact of the matter is this: When these chickens do come home to roost, we will see another gut-wrenching breathtaking sell-off in equities, which will be followed by currencies. We have not seen the end of this yet.
While some are talking of a recovery, others are talking about a possible double-dip recession – and I'm reasonably sure we are in for a "multi-dip." It is hard to be bullish on the dollar for any reason, but if the market drops again, which I believe it will, funds will rush right back to the dollar (and the yen).
So far, we have seen range-bound trading in the recent months as currencies search for direction. This week the big news was the US GDP. Risk currencies rallied on the back of it, but for 24 hours they have remained flat as there were no buyers to move it higher.
Also, the market got awfully jittery on the release of the consumer spending news yesterday. The manufacturing euphoria expended itself, and now we find out that personal income has dropped 1.4%, the biggest fall in four years. Inflation-adjusted spending fell 0.1%. The real dark spots in the economy have started showing back up. The stimulus has worked its way and done its best, but its effects are now negligible. Even though there are signs of a "recovery," it isn't going to be one without the consumer. If he's exhausted his means of spending, or is just afraid to put out any money, the recovery trade will be doomed. And that means dollar strength once again.
But for now, we will have to trade with what we have. It is hard to argue with the markets, even with the most compelling of reasons. A person may as well try to stop an ocean wave from breaking onshore.
And as we look ahead, we must always be mindful of what may be. As numerous talking heads were saying on Tuesday of this week, "We have turned the corner... things are going to get better – if they don't get worse!"

tanhy

Clinton: Chinese reassured on US financial healthClinton says Chinese seem reassured on US financial health, `breathing a little easier'

[size=1em]WASHINGTON (AP) -- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton says she thinks the Chinese "are breathing a little easier" about the health of the U.S. financial system.
[size=1em]U.S. and Chinese financial and diplomatic officials held two days of high-level talks in Washington last month.
[size=1em]The Chinese are the world's largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities. They have expressed concerns about the safety of their investments, given the rising U.S. budget deficit.
[size=1em]Clinton says she thinks "it is fair to say that they are somewhat reassured" after the recent talks. She says the U.S. economy is on the mend and President Barack Obama is committed to getting a handle on the deficit.
[size=1em]Clinton says the Chinese have an export-driven economic approach, but need to stimulate more demand for goods by Chinese consumers.
[size=1em]Clinton made the comments in a Thursday interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria that is set to air Sunday.

tanhy

Wen: No plan to halt China's easy credit policyPremier Wen says China still faces economic problems, easy credit policies will continue

BEIJING (AP) -- China's top economic official cautioned Sunday that the country still faced economic problems and assured jittery investors that easy credit policies aimed at kick-starting a recovery would continue.

[size=1em]"We still face many difficulties and challenges and there is uncertainty over the prospect of the international economy," Wen Jiabao said during a recent visit to eastern Jiangsu province, according to remarks posted Sunday on the central government's Web site.
[size=1em]He said the economy continues to be challenged by plunging demand for Chinese exports and challenges in boosting domestic demand.
[size=1em]Wen said Beijing will stick to its "relatively relaxed monetary policy" and a "proactive fiscal policy" -- a reference to the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus for the world's third-largest economy.
[size=1em]Chinese leaders say the country's recovery is not firmly established even though economic growth accelerated to 7.9 percent in the latest quarter, up from 6.1 percent in the previous quarter. They say the rebound is still dependent on government spending and a full-fledged private sector recovery has yet to take hold.
[size=1em]Wen's pledge of continued easy credit added to a string of government assurances to nervous investors that the flood of bank lending that fueled China's nascent economic rebound would continue despite concerns that it might be adding to dangerous speculation in stock and real estate.
[size=1em]Analysts are concerned that stimulus-fueled speculation in stocks and real estate could cause a boom and bust in those markets. They say reckless lending could add to pressure for prices to rise and leave banks burdened with bad debt.
[size=1em]Total lending by Chinese banks soared to 7.1 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in the first half of the year. Economists say an estimated 15 percent of that has flowed into stocks and real estate in violation of government lending rules.
[size=1em]Banks have been told to curtail credit for the second half of the year and make sure borrowers put money into productive investments, according to Chinese news reports. They say 10 lenders, including Bank of China Ltd., the country's No. 2 commercial lender, were ordered to buy 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) in government bonds to curb their credit growth.
[size=1em]
[size=1em]中国政府继续开水喉，股市下个礼拜又会大炒

stanleymyc

谢谢分享 , 资料很好

tanhy

原帖由 stanleymyc 于 10-8-2009 09:24 AM 发表 谢谢分享 , 资料很好

呵呵，不需客气
美国失业见底，这可是天大的好消息
差不多每一个主要媒体都是这样报，冲啊

tanhy

今天忽然间发现帐号不见了500分查一下短消息，又没有新的消息
因该是被油鬼子偷掉了
很厉害的油鬼子,再偷多两次，就要变丐帮帮主
看来是时候转台了

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 10-8-2009 03:31 PM 发表
今天忽然间发现帐号不见了500分查一下短消息，又没有新的消息
因该是被油鬼子偷掉了
很厉害的油鬼子,再偷多两次，就要变丐帮帮主
看来是时候转台了

大大, 你要转去那里呀?

打死油鬼子 !

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 11-8-2009 08:40 AM 发表


大大, 你要转去那里呀?

打死油鬼子 !

我不知道为何会不见了500分
有可能是我在某个帖大骂CARI每天卡贴，称赞CARI的竞争对手load得快

呵呵，做得好就称赞, 做不好就骂，扣了我分，短消息也不来个。。。典型的鸵鸟心态

虽然这些分也不能换McD吃。。。

tanhy

CIT delays report, could have to file for bankruptcy

[size=1em]NEW YORK (Reuters) - Troubled lender CIT Group Inc (NYSE:CIT
-
News) said on Tuesday it has delayed filing its second-quarter report with regulators and said if it could not complete its debt tender or arrange other financing, it would file for bankruptcy.
[size=1em]CIT is still reviewing assets and businesses that it may sell as well as the related valuation adjustments that must be included in the quarterly report, it said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
[size=1em]New York-based CIT, which last month secured $3 billion in emergency funding from bondholders, has been battling to restructure its debt and avoid bankruptcy.
[size=1em]The company has launched a tender offer for its outstanding $1 billion floating-rate notes due August 17. In a filing on Tuesday, it said if this offer were successful, it would use the proceeds from its emergency funding to complete the tender and make the payment on the August 17 notes.
[size=1em]The 101-year-old lender had already postponed its results, originally expected on July 23, while arranging the emergency funding. It said last month it expected a second-quarter loss of more than $1.5 billion.
[size=1em]Shares in the company slipped slightly to $1.46 in premarket trading, down from $1.48 on Monday.

tanhy

Stocks slide after wholesale inventories fall

[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are stepping up their selling following a government report that wholesale inventories fell for a record 10th straight month.

[size=1em]Falling inventories have contributed to the recession. So the Commerce Department's report Tuesday that wholesale inventories fell by 1.7 percent in June was unwelcome news to investors. It's almost double the 0.9 percent drop analysts expected.
[size=1em]In a bright spot, sales rose 0.4 percent for a second straight month. That was the first back-to-back increases in sales in a year.
[size=1em]Traders are cautious about the economy as analyst downgrades of stocks fan worries about how quickly a recover will come.
[size=1em]The Dow Jones industrial average is down 83 at 9,254. It was down 60 ahead of the report. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 10 at 997. The Nasdaq composite index is down 9 at 1,971.
[size=1em]我做运输的朋友说，今年的圣诞会很惨
[size=1em]往年7月开始，运输业就开始收到定单，为年尾的节日铺路
[size=1em]今年，水静河飞。。。
[size=1em]一般上，年尾的sales占了商家全年sales的大多数，如果最后一分钟没有出现补货，很多商家将会倒闭
[size=1em]小新政府一只告诉国民要谨慎，小心出现第2波的裁员潮，不要追高房地产。。。
[size=1em]不过对大多数人来说，左耳进，右耳出

tanhy

李嘉诚：港股现水平暂不入市 经济复苏还有一段时间

(2009-08-13)

　　（联合早报网讯）长和系主席李嘉诚今日在长和系业绩记者会上表示，港股升至现水平，他自己暂不会入市；不过他表示，长和系(长江实业及和记黄埔)是一项可长线的投资，并非一般的股票。

　　他他也希望市民不借钱或以抵押方式去买股票，因这要很小心，他更笑言，若炒股票可以赚大钱，大家就不用那么辛苦。
　　在记者会上，李嘉诚表示正在考虑和记黄埔及长江实业在上海上市。李嘉诚称，“有可能；有可能；但是我必须对这件事情非常小心，因为我代表了很多股东的利益。我会对相关细节、规则以及要求非常小心。”
　　被问及对未来经济的意见，李嘉诚表示，对于全球经济保持审慎的态度，不会太乐观，复苏还有一段时间，但最坏时刻已过去，亦没有可能「V形上返去」。
　　对于通胀的问题，他认为，若央行持续印钞，将会刺激通胀，即使未来加息，相信亦难以遏止。
　　李嘉诚提下任特首两条件
　　明报报道，李嘉诚也被被问及对下任香港特首人选的意见。他回应称，对于竞选下任特首的人，最重要是2项条件，而这两点是不分先后的。
　　他指出，第一是要获得香港人信任，第二是否胜任，这是人的质素。他会依靠这2项条件，来决定是否支持个别人选，以带领香港短、中及长期发展。
　　他重申，特首人选需要是可以胜任及信任的人。

tanhy

Buffett Says Federal Debt Poses Risks to Economy (Update1)



Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system and now pose threats to the world’s largest economy and its currency, billionaire[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Warren+Buffett&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Warren Buffett[/url]
said.
The “gusher of federal money” has rescued the financial system and the U.S. economy is now on a slow path to recovery, Buffett wrote in a New York Times commentary yesterday. While he applauds measures adopted by the Federal Reserve and officials from the Bush and Obama administrations, Buffett says the U.S. is fiscally in “uncharted territory.”
The government is trying to spark business and consumer spending through a $787 billion stimulus plan spanning tax cuts and infrastructure projects, while the Treasury and the Fed have spent billions more on separate programs to rescue financial institutions and resuscitate the banking system. The U.S. budget deficit is forecast to reach a record $1.841 trillion in the year that ends Sept. 30.
“Enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects,” Buffett, 78, said. “For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself.”
The “greenback emissions” will swell the deficit to 13 percent of gross domestic product this fiscal year, while net debt will increase to 56 percent of GDP, Buffett said.
Record Deficit
The U.S. budget deficit reached a record for the first 10 months of the fiscal year and broke a monthly high for July. The
excess of expenditure over revenue
for July climbed to $180.7 billion compared with a $102.8 billion gap in July 2008 as the government spent more than in any month in U.S. history, the Treasury said Aug. 12.
Officials must still do “whatever it takes” to get the U.S. economy back on its growth momentum, Buffett wrote.
“Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources,” Buffett said. “With government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.”

tanhy

Ugly Personal Income StatsHard to see how consumer spending will rebound with PI looking like this. Note the difference between now and the last recession.

Combine this with record levels of consumer debt, and you get an ugly picture. It seems obvious that any “recovery” fueled by unsustainable public debt, loose new accounting standards, and which is jobless, is no recovery at all. But hope springs eternal, don’t it?

tanhy

The FDIC is Brokeby gjohnsit
Tue Aug 18, 2009 at 12:42:17 PM PDT When Colonial Bank failed on Friday, the 77th bank to fail this year, very few people noted that it was the largest bank failure of 2009. Even fewer people noted that the cost of cleaning it up requiredmore capital resources than the FDIC had.
   The total losses of Friday's five bank failures, according to the FDIC, would be $3.67 Billion. The problem is that the FDIC had less than $650 million in its Deposit Insurance Fund at the time.

tanhy

Bernanke optimistic economy will grow again soonBernanke optimistic economy will grow again soon; avoids blame for any crisis missteps
JACKSON, Wyo. (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday offered his most optimistic outlook since the financial crisis struck, saying the economy is on the verge of growing again.
Speaking at an annual Fed conference, Bernanke acknowledged no missteps by the central bank in managing the worst crisis since the Great Depression. But he conceded that consumers and businesses are still having trouble getting loans, even though the financial system is gradually stabilizing.


Economic activity in both the U.S. and around the world seems to be leveling out, and the economy is likely to start growing again soon, Bernanke said in a speech at an annual Fed conference in Jackson.
The mood here was decidedly more hopeful than it was last summer, when a sense of foreboding hung over the forum just before the financial crisis erupted.
Bernanke's hopeful remarks on the economy contributed to a rally on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average surged about 155 points, or 1.7 percent, and broader stock averages also gained sharply.
Despite his upbeat tone, Bernanke cautioned that the recovery is likely to be "relatively slow at first."
Unemployment, now at 9.4 percent, is widely expected to hit double digits later this year and to remain high for many months.
The financial markets have stabilized, and some businesses and consumers have found it easier to get loans. Still, the banking system has yet to return to normal, Bernanke said.
Financial institutions face further losses on soured investments. And many businesses and households still can't get the credit they need to fuel the economy, he said.
"Although we have avoided the worst, difficult challenges still lie ahead," Bernanke told the gathering of fellow bankers, academics and economists. "We must work together to build on the gains already made to secure a sustained economic recovery."
Reviewing the past year's crisis, Bernanke outlined the many emergency measures the Fed and other regulators took to help ward off a global financial meltdown. He declined to acknowledge critics' arguments that regulators failed to detect signs of the crisis before it occurred -- or that Wall Street bailouts sent a message that big companies that make reckless bets would be rescued with taxpayer money.
A $700 billion taxpayer-funded bailout program to prop up financial institutions incensed many Americans. So did the repeated bailouts of AIG, which paid hefty bonuses to employees who worked in the division that brought down the firm.
Some analysts said Bernanke appeared to be angling to keep his job for another term.
"The lack of any mea culpa suggests the Fed chairman wants to be reappointed," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. "When you go on an interview, you never speak of your shortcomings."
President Barack Obama will have to decide in coming months whether to reappoint or replace Bernanke, whose term expires early next year.
Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics, said Bernanke was engaging in a "bit of cheerleading to inspire confidence," especially among consumers whose caution could restrain the recovery.
Elsewhere at the conference, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet responded to a research paper on the origins and the nature of the financial crisis by saying he was a "little bit uneasy" about talk of a return to normalcy.
"We have an enormous amount of work to do, and we should be as active as possible," Trichet said.
The bulk of Bernanke's speech chronicled the extraordinary events of the past year.
Financial markets took a dizzying plunge starting in September and into October, nearly shutting down the flow of credit. The crisis felled storied Wall Street firms. The government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as insurance titan American International Group Inc.
Lehman Brothers failed. It filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, the largest in corporate history, roiling markets worldwide.
The Fed swooped in with unprecedented emergency lending programs to fight the crisis. It eventually slashed a key bank lending rate to a record low near zero. And Congress enacted programs to stimulate the economy, including a $787 billion package of tax cuts and increased government spending.
"Without these speedy and forceful actions, last October's panic would likely have continued to intensify, more major firms would have failed and the entire global financial system would have been at serious risk," Bernanke said.
Unlike in the 1930s, Washington policymakers this time acted aggressively and quickly to contain the crisis, said Bernanke, a scholar of the Great Depression.
"As severe as the economic impact has been, however, the outcome could have been decidedly worse," he said.
Global cooperation in battling the crisis was crucial, with central banks slashing interest rates and the U.S. and other governments delivering fiscal stimulus, he noted.
"The crisis, in turn, sparked a deep global recession, from which we are only now beginning to emerge," the Fed chief observed.
The conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, draws a virtual who's who of the financial world -- Bernanke's counterparts in other countries, academics and economists. This year's forum focused on lessons learned from the crisis and how they can be applied to prevent a repeat of the debacles.
Bernanke again urged a rewrite of U.S. financial regulations, something Congress is involved in. He repeated his call for stricter oversight of companies -- such as AIG -- whose failure would endanger the entire financial system and the broader economy. Obama wants to empower the Fed for that duty, something many lawmakers oppose.
Bernanke also said the U.S. needs a process to wind down globally interconnected companies, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. does for failing banks.
A strengthening of financial regulation is needed, he said, "to ensure that the enormous costs of the past two years will not be borne again."

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AP sources: $2 trillion higher deficit projected

[size=1em]WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration expects the federal deficit over the next decade to be $2 trillion bigger than previously estimated, White House officials said Friday, a setback for a president already facing a Congress and public wary over spending.

[size=1em]The new projection, to be announced on Tuesday, is for a cumulative 2010-2019 deficit of $9 trillion instead of the $7 trillion previously estimated. The new figure reflects slumping revenues from a worse economic picture than was expected earlier this year. The officials spoke only on the condition of anonymity ahead of next week's announcement.
[size=1em]Ten-year forecasts are volatile figures subject to change over time. But the higher number will likely create political difficulties for President Barack Obama in Congress and could create anxiety with foreign buyers of U.S. debt.
[size=1em]Earlier this week, the White House revealed that it expects a budget deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 to be nearly $1.6 trillion. That figure was lower than initially projected because the White House scratched out $250 billion that it had initially added to the budget as a bank rescue contingency. The administration ultimately did not ask Congress for that money.
[size=1em]Still that number, together with the 10-year projection, represents a huge obstacle for an administration trying to undertake massive policy overhauls in health care and the environment.
[size=1em]Economists predict a slow recovery from the recession, further testing Obama's goal of cutting the deficit to $512 billion in 2013. Even as he seeks higher revenues to pay for new climate change and health care measures, the president could face pressure to increase revenues or make deep spending cuts to tame the deficit.
[size=1em]Earlier long-term estimates released in February and May relied on now-outdated projections of economic growth. Then, the White House predicted the economy would shrink by 1.2 percent this year, but the economy shrank 6.4 percent in the first quarter, the worst in nearly three decades.
[size=1em]In its earlier projections, the White House said the deficit would be manageable if it slides to 3 percent of gross domestic product. Earlier projections barely met that standard -- even after relying on optimistic assumptions like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan costing $50 billion a year instead of the $130 billion budgeted for 2010.
[size=1em]Now, the deficits could easily exceed 4 percent of GDP, even after cost-cutting efforts or new revenues claimed in Obama's budget.
[size=1em]Such deficits have always prompted Congress and the White House to take politically painful steps to curb them, such as former President Bill Clinton's tax-heavy 1993 deficit reduction plan. A companion effort by Obama could force him to break his promise to not raise taxes on individuals making more $200,000 a year or more.

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在Fed 宣布经济已经复苏时，Obama政府这边却暗示未来的财政赤字会比预算中更严重

不怪得分析家会怀疑这是伯南克保饭碗的竞选宣言