危机可能已经见底了，不过。。。

tanhy

World has avoided economic disaster, Obama says

L'AQUILA, Italy (AP) -- Lasting worldwide recovery "is still a ways off," President Barack Obama declared Friday, but he also said at the conclusion of a global summit that a disastrous economic collapse apparently has been averted.

Obama said world leaders had taken significant measures to address economic, environmental and global security issues.
"Reckless actions by a few have fueled a recession that spans the globe," Obama said of the meltdown that began in the United States with a tumble in housing prices and drastic slowing of business lending. The downturn now threatens superpowers and emerging nations alike.
Obama urged national leaders to unite behind a global recovery plan that includes stricter financial regulation and sustained stimulus spending.

先是Vice President出来放风声讲美国政府低估了危机
现在Obama出来说Lasting worldwide recovery "is still a ways off."
明眼人因该看到一些东西了吧？

超清晰

接下来媒体会配合解读老奥的言论了吧

tanhy

原帖由 超清晰 于 12-7-2009 02:19 PM 发表 接下来媒体会配合解读老奥的言论了吧

很难说，我发现到媒体是被操控的，他们会选择性highlight 一些对他们后台老板有利的事情
因为这样，新手很容易被媒体所骗，进而踏入炒家所设的陷阱

我给你一个example, 老巴在1年1度朝圣大会说了2个很重要的东西：
1。Bernanke 做对了事情
2。他看不到green shoots

是不是有点矛盾？为何Fed做对了事，但是老巴看不到复苏的迹象？

结果大部分的媒体只是渲染 1）, 股市被推高

所以投资者一定要学会分析情报，才能够站稳立场

如果不是这样难，为何大部分听了媒体和股票行意见的人会输钱？

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 13-7-2009 04:57 PM 发表

很难说，我发现到媒体是被操控的，他们会选择性highlight 一些对他们后台老板有利的事情
因为这样，新手很容易被媒体所骗，进而踏入炒家所设的陷阱

我给你一个example, 老巴在1年1度朝圣大会说了2个很重要的东 ...

金人的财报要出了, 看來很OUTSTANDING 一下下.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 15-7-2009 11:32 AM 发表


金人的财报要出了, 看來很OUTSTANDING 一下下.

金人一早已经宣布要给历史性高的bonus
这些家伙在美国政府里面有线人，在金融市场崩前short 了大量期货，又在3月头大量买进
现在其他竞争对手都倒下了，剩他一家玩完

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 15-7-2009 01:14 PM 发表


金人一早已经宣布要给历史性高的bonus
这些家伙在美国政府里面有线人，在金融市场崩前short 了大量期货，又在3月头大量买进
现在其他竞争对手都倒下了，剩他一家玩完

那TAN大大对这两天MARKET 的反應有什麼見解? 股市调整完了?

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 15-7-2009 01:58 PM 发表


那TAN大大对这两天MARKET 的反應有什麼見解? 股市调整完了?

我很难像想GS赚大钱怎样和经济复苏扯上关系，GS是靠投机股市和原产品期货大赚

这次风暴，受打击的是和房地产和信用卡有关的银行，除非Citi, BoA 和Wells Fargo交出好成绩，我才觉得经济已经好转

无可否认，Intel交出的成绩是超越预期

接下来要看GE了，GE是超级大企业，差不多包完各行各业

盘古盘古

新加坡股市调整完了

財神

原帖由 盘古盘古 于 15-7-2009 19:58 发表
新加坡股市调整完了

嗯，所谓的调整当然有大调整和小调整吧。

alpinev18

原帖由 財神 于 15-7-2009 08:00 PM 发表

嗯，所谓的调整当然有大调整和小调整吧。

唉.... 几时才有大调整呢?

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 15-7-2009 05:58 PM 发表


我很难像想GS赚大钱怎样和经济复苏扯上关系，GS是靠投机股市和原产品期货大赚

这次风暴，受打击的是和房地产和信用卡有关的银行，除非Citi, BoA 和Wells Fargo交出好成绩，我才觉得经济已经好转

无可否认， ...

说得有理, 可是股市好像不是跟着理由走.

.paylink.

调整向上还是向下？？

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 15-7-2009 05:58 PM 发表


我很难像想GS赚大钱怎样和经济复苏扯上关系，GS是靠投机股市和原产品期货大赚

这次风暴，受打击的是和房地产和信用卡有关的银行，除非Citi, BoA 和Wells Fargo交出好成绩，我才觉得经济已经好转

无可否认， ...

INTEL  还是交出红色的成绩單.... 不明白为什麼这是利好因素.

michelle_sim

对咯。。请问是调整向上还是向下？？

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 16-7-2009 03:13 PM 发表 INTEL  还是交出红色的成绩單.... 不明白为什麼这是利好因素.  

Intel 是被欧盟重重罚了1笔，否则因该是赚钱
投资者一般是没有把一次过的亏损算在内

tanhy

原帖由 michelle_sim 于 16-7-2009 05:16 PM 发表 对咯。。请问是调整向上还是向下？？

我以为这次的业绩报告会很难看，那里知道股市会因为一个analyst 的话炒上来
难道那个analyst 会比老巴，Bernanke, Obama等人更有影响力？

tanhy

原帖由 michelle_sim 于 16-7-2009 05:16 PM 发表 对咯。。请问是调整向上还是向下？？

我以为会向下，那里知道会无端端炒上来
只不过是一个analyst 的话....

tanhy

BOA 和 Citi 都赚大钱，不过股价在收市时反而跌原因是BOA的bad debt provision 大起，Ken Lewis 又发表不乐观的预期
至于Citi, 其实真正的业务是亏损，只是靠卖股份赚了一次过的钱

最真实的应该是GE
GE的revenue 跌了17%，虽然盈利超越预期，不过其实是靠cut cost

到现在为止，大部分超越预期的盈利都是靠裁员减薪
所以失业继续上升是可预期

tanhy

前几天又看到Media被利用的case末日博士Roubini发表的话被有心人当做好消息来炒高股市
Roubini随后发表谈话说他的话被误解了，不过股市不为所动

华尔街大鳄制造了金融危机，现在又用美国人的钱继续为所欲为
这就使Obama所说的金融管制？整大队美国人失业等救命，GS的人却得到历史性高的花红？

tanhy

RPT-CIT in talks with bondholders as bankruptcy loomsSat Jul 18, 2009 10:39pm EDT



* Rescue finance talks to continue Sunday

* DIP financing talks also on with banks

* Bankruptcy filing possible by Monday

By Paritosh Bansal

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc (CIT.N) was in talks with a bondholder group on Saturday, as the lender tried to hammer out a rescue financing deal before markets opened and avoid bankruptcy, a source close to the situation said.

Talks with the bondholder group, advised by investment bank Houlihan Lokey, for a $2 billion to $3 billion financing were expected to continue into Sunday with the aim of announcing a deal by Monday morning, the source said.

If a deal is not reached, the 101-year-old lender that services nearly one million small- and mid-sized businesses could file for bankruptcy protection as soon as Monday, according to the source, who did not want to be identified because talks are private.

Talks are also going on a parallel track for debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing if the lender has to file for bankruptcy, the source said.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Barclays PLC (BARC.L) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), which is also advising the company, might take part in a DIP financing, the source said.

CIT spokesman Curt Ritter declined to comment.

The ripples from a potential CIT collapse could be widespread and worsen the effects of the economic downturn for some firms.

In one early sign, an Alabama hardware supplier filed for bankruptcy blaming the CIT situation for its woes.

Moore-Handley Inc (MHCO.PK) said in court papers filed Friday that it was forced to seek bankruptcy protection "due to difficulties accessing funds" under their financing arrangements with CIT. [ID:nN18474850]

Still, the impact of CIT's demise would likely pale by comparison with the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ.PK) last September, analysts said.

CIT gained a bank holding company status in December so it could draw $2.33 billion of taxpayer money from the U.S. Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program.

CIT 因该很难逃过大难，在这么短时间内要和债主谈好条件。。。
根据消息，CIT可能需要6 billion才能避免倒闭