【新海峡时报(NSTP)交流專區】

goodluck88

散叔说“再融資資產投資在股市”，是指re-finance屋子投资股市的事吗？

hdcyng

原帖由 糊涂 于 3-12-2008 01:04 AM 发表


当然不会，我倒是蛮喜欢看些负面的分析，补足糊涂功课的不足之处。
看了她的分析后，糊涂才得知NSTP 09 年1H的新闻纸价格锁定在USD900/tonne，难怪市场会那么悲观。
据我所知，市场上回收旧报纸的价格已回落 ...

我不明白! Locked News Paper prices at USD900/tonne是甚么意思!!
一盘指的是用future来护盘, 确保cost不受价格影响!
会亏的话应该是像中国航油那样赌超过所需要的量!
难道是它的子公司买进过量的USD900/tonne新闻纸??
请糊涂大大教我也!

糊涂

先看看久闻
11-07-2008: Rising newsprint cost takes toll on media stocks
by Doreen Leong
Email us your feedback at [email protected]

KUALA LUMPUR: With soaring newsprint prices, media companies are feeling the brunt of the rising costs and may find it difficult to pass the burden to consumers.  Over the past year, newsprint prices rose sharply and would soon approach US$900 (RM2,970) per tonne level, according to a report by Credit Suisse. This was driven by supply cuts by major newsprint producers and rising oil prices. Less than a year ago, newsprint was at about US$650 per tonne, according to industry observers. They said it is expected to breach US$1,000 in the next few months.

As a result of higher costs, media companies’ margins are expected to take a hit if they do not pass the increase in costs to consumers. “While the logical fix for higher costs would be to raise cover prices (the cover price is below the cost of the newspaper), we believe management may hold back seeing that consumers are already suffering from higher petrol, electricity and food costs,” Credit Suisse said in its report recently.

Also, there is a risk of lower advertising expenditure by companies due to weaker consumer sentiment as they cope with higher inflationary pressures and uncertainties in the political scene. The slowdown in the property sector is also having an impact on print media companies. Property companies, which are the second highest advertisers in English papers last year, are likely to defer new property launches. This meant that lower property adex was to be expected following potentially slower new launches, said Credit Suisse.

More recently, share prices of media counters such as Star Publications (Malaysia) Bhd and The New Straits Times Press Bhd had declined to its six-month low. Share price of The NSTP closed at a low of RM1.49 on Monday while the Star closed at RM3.18 on Wednesday. According to Bloomberg data, Credit Suisse has an “underperform” call while BNP Paribas has a “hold” call on Star with target prices of RM2.75 and RM3.30 respectively. The counter closed two sen higher at RM3.20 yesterday.

Analysts polled on Bloomberg have “market perform”, “hold” and “trading buy” calls on NSTP with target prices between RM1.92 and RM2.46. The counter closed 20 sen higher at RM1.70 yesterday. Nevertheless, any hit on the Star’s bottomline due to the higher newsprint prices would not be seen until the first quarter of next year, according to Credit Suisse. This is because the Star has enough newsprint stocks for the current fiscal year. Credit Suisse has cut net profit estimates for Star’s financial year ending Dec 31, 2009 and 2010 by 17% to 18% due to the higher newsprint costs. It has also lowered its FY2008 and FY2009 adex growth forecasts to 4% and 2.5% from 5% for both years.

Meanwhile, Aseambankers Research said in its note on May 26 that shares of Star were expected to continue outperforming amid weak investor sentiment, backed by a net cash hoard of RM430 million. According to Credit Suisse, the Star offered an attractive dividend yield of 5%, which is sustainable, given its strong balance sheet position.

糊涂

再看看这篇昨天的报导

2 Dec 2008: Corporate: Double whammy for print media industry
by Kathy Fong
Email us your feedback at [email protected]

Daily newspapers have been getting noticeably thinner of late. This is certainly not because there is less earth-shattering news that is worth putting into print as global economic growth decelerates. Neither is it true that the publishers are saving cost by printing fewer pages after the sharp rise in newsprint prices. Thinner newspapers are in fact evidence of a slowdown in advertising revenue - the bread and butter of the mass media. Newspaper publishers derive their profits mainly from selling advertising space, not from the number of newspaper copies that are sold; the readership and circulation figures are just two important tools they use to attract advertisers.

Publishers will not hesitate to add more pages to their newspapers as long as advertisement sales, and the ratio of ads to pages, are climbing. But this is not quite the situation the print media is facing now. Companies, whether local or multinational corporations, are cutting their budgets as the shock waves from the financial turmoil in the West hit local shores. Unfortunately, advertising expenditure is often among the first few items on the list to be slashed, although some quarters argue that companies should continue to spend on advertising to defend their market share, which would otherwise likely shrink during slow times. According to Nielsen Media Research, advertising expenditure (adex) fell 3% month on month in October - the first contraction in 21 months, when it recorded a 4% drop in December 2006.

The signs of market weakness were already showing by the middle of the year. In July, adex growth declined to a single digit, coming in at 7% versus 15% in June. The growth rate was 8% in August and 6% in September, before the US credit crunch swept across the globe in October. Between January and October this year, adex growth for the print media industry was 11.2% y-o-y, thanks to a strong 16% growth in 1H2008. Given the current harsh economic conditions, prospects for the print media industry are unlikely to improve. Credit Suisse's analyst Loke Foong Wai says in a report that newspaper adex is highly correlated with GDP growth; in 2004/05, when GDP growth decelerated from 7% to 5%, newspaper adex growth slowed to 4% from 13%. Already, Star Publications Bhd, the leading English daily publisher, has warned of challenging times ahead after the media group saw lower earnings in 3QFY2008 ended Sept 30.

"The strong advertising expenditure growth seen in the first half of this year may not be sustained for the remainder of 2008," thXXXXX said when it released its 3Q results two weeks ago. It added that it was experiencing rising direct costs and operating expenses "due particularly to the sharp increases in newsprint and fuel prices during the period under review". Star Publications' net profit dropped 11% q-o-q to RM39 million from RM44 million in 2QFY2008 amid lower revenue of RM202.9 million compared with RM211.7 million in the preceding quarter ended June 30, 2008.

The New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd, however, reported a higher net profit of RM16 million in 3QFY2008, up 19% from RM11 million in 2QFY2008. Revenue was also higher at RM148.6 million versus RM145.8 million previously. NSTP attributed its higher earnings to XXXXXnal gains from the disposal of properties, higher advertisement revenue and a higher share of profits from associate MNI Holdings due to the higher newsprint prices. Despite the higher quarterly profit, NSTP, which publishes both English and Malay language dailies and magazines, also warned that the impending economic slowdown and increase in newsprint prices will adversely affect its earnings.

Media Chinese International Ltd (MCIL), the dominant player in Chinese print media, also experienced a drop in net profit in 2QFY2008 ended Sept 30. The group's net profit fell 26% to RM21.3 million from RM28.8 million in the preceding quarter despite higher revenue. It is a double whammy for print media groups as the going gets tough. Not only is advertising revenue falling, but costs, particularly of newsprint, are climbing. The price of newsprint is definitely another wild card that may hurt the earnings of print media groups. Analysts are expecting print media companies to feel the pinch of higher newsprint prices soon as their inventories, procured six to nine months ago, would have been depleted.

"Newsprint prices appear to have peaked and could fall to US$800 to US$850 per tonne by 1Q2009 but this is still relatively high compared with an average of US$650 per tonne in 2007," says Credit Suisse's Loke. Worse still, the ringgit is weakening against the US dollar, putting more pressure on the newsprint costs of print media groups. MCIL says the rise in newsprint costs is likely to continue due to the strengthening of the US dollar against the ringgit. The greenback has appreciated 12% against the local currency since mid-July, from 3.21 to 3.61 currently. Some economists say the US dollar is likely to stay strong in the near term partly because of capital flight to the currency which is viewed as a safe haven despite the financial turmoil in the US.

Raising the cover price or advertising rates is how print media companies can sustain profitability. However, industry observers say raising advertising rates may be a "bold and brave" move when companies are cutting advertising budgets. High newsprint prices will be a real test for the free paper business model. Declining advertising revenue and expensive newsprint prices will be more challenging for Sun Media Group, which distributes the English daily theSun for free, as it has to bear all the costs of each newspaper it prints. The change in the industry's landscape, with growing news websites on the Internet, also makes it difficult for companies to raise their cover prices. "Readers who are cost conscious during the economic downturn may read the news on the publishers' websites instead of buying the hard copy if newspaper prices go up," says an industry observer. As a result, circulation may drop and eventually affect advertising revenue. On the other hand, online advertising is still not an income generator for the print media. More advertisements are being placed on the websites compared with some years ago but the pie is still relatively small compared to current print adex. Nonetheless, this is not the first downturn that has hit the print media industry. The survival instinct of the newspaper companies will certainly help them find ways to ride out the storm.

糊涂

原帖由 hdcyng 于 3-12-2008 06:33 PM 发表
我不明白! Locked News Paper prices at USD900/tonne是甚么意思!!
一盘指的是用future来护盘, 确保cost不受价格影响!
会亏的话应该是像中国航油那样赌超过所需要的量!
难道是它的子公司买进过量的USD900/ton ...

我也不甚明白，或许她指的是NSTP目前的新闻纸Inventory与它向MNI下的未来订单吧(以USSD900的价格下订单)。

糊涂

这两篇报导道出了报业目前遇上的困境

• 目前报纸价格比出版报纸成本低，报业的盈利都来自广告支出
• 2007年英文报章的第2大广告营收来自房产业，广告收入将随着房产计划减少而减低。
• 越来越薄的报纸就是广告收入减少的最佳证据。
• 经济衰退之际，广告支出将是各行业消减成本的主要目标之一。
• 2008年10月份的广告营收下跌3%， 7、8、9月份的成长依次为7%、8%与6%。
• 2008年上半年的强劲广告营收绝不可能持续至年尾
• 除了NSTP外，所有主要报章盈利都下滑。星报下滑11%，世华下滑26%(Utusan的业绩恐怕更难看)
• 新闻纸的价格将在近期内见顶，明年上半年的价格介于USD800-850之间。
• 无论如何，美元上涨将会增加新闻纸的成本。美元兑零吉从7月份的3.21涨至目前的3.61或相当于12%涨幅。
• 报纸涨价将会导致部分读者转看网上报导，而网上的广告营收却微不足道！报业有苦自知

就不知糊涂还看漏了些什么重点吗？

qqtanlin

我觉得重点是在成长率，这股的成长率不够大，市场有限。。。

糊涂

原帖由 老散一名 于 3-12-2008 01:20 AM 发表
哈哈，糊涂兄。
投資很簡單的。
我們不要黑馬。
我們不要數據。

糊涂大大，這裡你已經贊牛角了。（sorry 這是老散自己認為而已）
糊涂大大，什麼是被严重低沽了。

想想，糊涂看到，別人看不到。
所以， ...

谢谢老散兄的提醒，在投资股票上糊涂的确有着许多看不到的盲点，太过于相信数据而漠视行业的风险就足于让糊涂万劫不复了。。。
或许大家都看到了，只是糊涂当局者迷，依然盲目相信NSTP的数据，我会听从老散兄的劝告，暂时放弃持续买入NSTP。。。。
至于再融资的风险，糊涂曾经评估过，在一番考量后，糊涂决定把握这一次的机会(豪赌?)，希望这一场战役能够把我“每天星期天"的梦想与现实拉近一点点。

糊涂

原帖由 qqtanlin 于 3-12-2008 07:43 PM 发表
我觉得重点是在成长率，这股的成长率不够大，市场有限。。。

报业的市场差不多饱和了，成长率自然有限得紧。
糊涂看上的是NSTP的现金流、股息、还有不断侵蚀Utusan市场的能力，
尚若它的资产素质提高，它大股东media prima私有化它的机率还是蛮高的。

hdcyng

原帖由 糊涂 于 3-12-2008 07:33 PM 发表
新闻纸的价格将在近期内见顶，明年上半年的价格介于USD800-850之间。 无论如何，美元上涨将会增加新闻纸的成本。美元兑零吉从7月份的3.21涨至目前的3.61或相当于12%涨幅。

如果locked 了, 上面两点对09上半年没影响!
如果买了uds900/ton 也不会亏8millions 啊???
这是我不明白的地方???

hdcyng

原帖由 糊涂 于 3-12-2008 07:54 PM 发表


报业的市场差不多饱和了，成长率自然有限得紧。
糊涂看上的是NSTP的现金流、股息、还有不断侵蚀Utusan市场的能力，
尚若它的资产素质提高，它大股东media prima私有化它的机率还是蛮高的。

对我就是看中media prima的managment和私有化的可能!
Toyo和怡球 已经走宝了!

qqtanlin

成长率带动股价，成长率不高的，股价也不会很出色，ajinomo就是一个列子, )

[ 本帖最后由 qqtanlin 于 22-4-2009 11:42 AM 编辑 ]

titep_shin

原帖由 糊涂 于 3-12-2008 07:04 PM 发表
再看看这篇昨天的报导

2 Dec 2008: Corporate: Double whammy for print media industry
by Kathy Fong
Email us your feedback at [email protected]

Daily newspapers have been getting noticeably thinn ...

想问糊涂兄
这一片报道在那里看到的?
我也向看

qqtanlin

其实市场上还有很多比NSTP好的股

糊涂

过去3个月里，零吉兑美元汇率已贬值了约6%。
NSTP马来报销售量增加本是好事，可惜马来报的Adex一向偏低，新闻纸成本因美元涨价而水涨船高，NSTP的盈利反被销售量增加所累；而她极有可能成为报业中的最大输家，这也许是近来她股价大幅渡滑落的主要原因之一。

糊涂

原帖由 titep_shin 于 3-12-2008 08:14 PM 发表


想问糊涂兄
这一片报道在那里看到的?
我也向看

theedge 财经网，以下是连接。
11-07-2008: Rising newsprint cost takes toll on media stocks

2 Dec 2008: Corporate: Double whammy for print media industry

[ 本帖最后由 糊涂 于 3-12-2008 11:24 PM 编辑 ]

糊涂

原帖由 qqtanlin 于 3-12-2008 08:13 PM 发表
成长率带动股价，成长率不高的，股价也不会很出色，ajinomo就是一个列子(ajinomo我曾经问过你, )

其实除了成长外，还有产业周期、产业复苏等都会影响股价走势，在全球经济衰退的当儿并不容易找到类似Topglove的高度成长股，所以糊涂退求其次，只要股价有机会为我开番就好。

糊涂相信新闻纸价格将会见顶，强势美元也不会持久，糊涂更相信 - 待这些负面因素都逐渐改变后，NSTP的股价自然就会回升了。

daoheng

请问新闻纸是从美国进口还是马来西亚出产但以美元交易？？

hdcyng

原帖由 糊涂 于 9-12-2008 11:29 PM 发表


以NSTP的成交量看来，绝大部份的买家应该都是拿票的，就不知是否有方法查处市场上放票的朋友来自何方，手上究竟还有多少张票可放呢?

只要还有最大几个股东不能有多过75%和股东最少要有1,000人以上的条例;永远都会有散户放票和买票.
现有条例我们只能知道当下的5%以上大股东有多少张票可放!

还有就是,NSTP还清short-term debt后.
可能在一年后成为超高息公司或可能被The Star 出高价买下!

[ 本帖最后由 hdcyng 于 10-12-2008 03:21 AM 编辑 ]

悶蛋

在这烂市里股价被低估的比比皆是，
维持成长的也不是没有，股息比它高的更是一大堆，
开番？我也很想，但是我的选择就跟糊涂兄不一样了，
其实股票就是这样，各花入各眼，希望你的豪赌可以成功，
到时我有没有机会喝到你一杯茶