【tan81 个人专区】欢迎大家发表零售市场行情的看法

tan81

还没有想清楚。不过直觉认为SHELL的冲击最大。因为会影响汽油的销量。而且，6月尾和7月初，SHELL会关闭14天。会影响产量。

ThermoFisher

如果。。我是说如果石油和农产品在近期爆跌，有什么行业的股票能够幸免，或受影响最轻？什么行业的股票可能会受重创或遭遇灭顶之灾呢？

（虽然题目很大，但我想听听tan81兄在这方面的分析 ）

[ 本帖最后由 ThermoFisher 于 28-5-2008 01:20 PM 编辑 ]

tan81

很好的问题。可以尽量帮你思考。我觉得你应该换个想法，不是什么股票，而是什么金融产品。思考过后，才给你回复。

简单的直接做法，是债卷和现金。

Mr.Business

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 28-5-2008 01:16 PM 发表
如果。。我是说如果石油和农产品在近期爆跌，有什么行业的股票能够幸免，或受影响最轻？什么行业的股票可能会受重创或遭遇灭顶之灾呢？

（虽然题目很大，但我想听听tan81兄在这方面的分析 ）

希望你讲的早日成真。。。现在因为石油和农产品泡沫而好景的公司，自然在泡沫破灭后大跌，例如油气股和棕油股。倒不是说泡沫破灭它们的生意会大受影响，只是抄钱离开获利而已。

因为泡沫破灭而得利的公司应该有航空股咯。。。我认为应该注意这些股票的价钱走势，看有没有先知力量买进或卖出。。。意思是说油价高昂可是油气股和棕油股大跌，而航空股大起，很可能就是泡沫要破灭了。。。

PS：还要看美元走向。。。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 28-5-2008 01:38 PM 编辑 ]

ThermoFisher

生意兄，如果把经济规模缩小，只谈马来西亚，我国经济是靠双油撑起一片天，如果双油齐齐暴跌，加上美国的经济衰退（几乎是事实了），我国第一季的制造业已经明显的放慢,马来西亚经济会否遭受更大的打击呢？

[ 本帖最后由 ThermoFisher 于 28-5-2008 02:29 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

回顾过去，全球资源牛市是从2001年开始 (香港高手讲的)。资源牛市跟美元币值开始贬值有关 (也跟打仗有关)，而这里的资源指的是石油，小麦，金属。。。

而我国牛市的开始应该跟2005年政府宣布跟美元脱钩有关系。外资预期零吉开始升值，因此进来我国，顺便跟随资源牛市主题，抄油气股和棕油股。

泡沫应该要结束了，因为美国总统要换人了，而且热钱也抄到食物了，到了饿死人的情况了。。。

现在应该如何？我想只有等吧。。。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 28-5-2008 02:18 PM 编辑 ]

tan81

Posted on Tuesday, May 27, 2008, 12:00AM

I've been on television recently discussing the U.S. financial crisis. These shows often feature a panel of so-called financial experts who rarely agree with each other. The reason their advice is different is simply because each expert speaks to a different segment of the population.

Giving Credit

For example, Suze Orman, Dave Ramsey, and Larry Winget speak to people who are deep in credit card debt. Their advice is excellent, direct, practical, and to the point. I should know -- in the late 1970s, I was one of the debt-ridden people they're speaking to. I was deeply in debt because my business was suffering and I was using credit cards to live on. Instead of paying off my credit card, I'd get a new credit card and use that one to pay off the old credit card. I, too, once used a home equity loan to invest in my business -- and lost it all.

At my lowest point, I was nearly $700,000 in debt. One evening, I attempted to check into a motel in upstate New York and my credit card was declined. I slept in the car that night. Many people might say that this was a horrible experience, but that isn't true -- it was a wake-up call. It was clearly time to look in the mirror and face who I really was. I realized that if I wasn't going to be tough on me, the world would take on the job.

Today, older and wiser, I have tremendous respect for the power of debt and the value of credit. Credit is another word for trustworthiness. I'm currently millions of dollars in debt, but it's good debt invested in income-producing real estate. While millions of homeowners are threatened with foreclosure, my investment real estate is doing very well. In fact, I'm doing even better because more people are renting than buying.

The Strata of Financial Advice

If you're deeply in debt like I was and want to get rich someday, I suggest you start by following the advice of Orman, Ramsey, and Winget. For a certain portion of the population, their advice is very rich indeed.

But there are other types of financial advice, some of it not nearly as beneficial. The lowest kind assures people that the government will take care of them. This is what the people who are counting on Social Security and Medicare have been led to believe. The problem is that the U.S. government is the biggest debtor in the world, and those depending on it to take care of them will only become poorer.

Another type of bad financial advice tells us to get a safe job, save money, live below our means, buy a house, get out of debt, and invest for the long term in a well-diversified portfolio of mutual funds. On those financial TV shows, I get into the most head-butting with the so-called financial experts who subscribe to this philosophy. That's because, according to the Census Bureau, in 1999 the average U.S. income was $49,244. By 2006, the average income declined to $48,201. This means that U.S. workers haven't had a pay raise for seven years. So much for the advice about getting a safe job -- it's the opposite of rich advice.

Diversify at Your Peril

Moreover, in January 2008 the Federal Reserve Board dropped the interest rate twice over a period of just eight days, by a record 1.25 percent. If my crystal ball is accurate, I expect another .5 percent drop sometime later this year. Savers are actually losers, then, because interest rates are low and inflation is high. So urging people to save money isn't rich advice, either.

Finally, the S&P stood at 1,352.99 in March 2008, which is below its mark of 1,362.80 in April of 1999. So much for the advice of investing for the long term in a well-diversified portfolio of mutual funds -- that's also not rich advice.

Warren Buffett has said that diversification is for people who don't know what they're doing. And my rich dad once told me, "Diversifying is like going to a horse race and betting on every horse. The only way you win is if the darkest of dark horses wins." So my concern is that people who follow this second type of financial advice may actually wind up poor in the long term.

Get Rich, Stay Rich

So there's different financial advice for different people, and the price of poor advice is that millions will be poor if they follow advice that isn't aimed at them.

To become rich, I recommend investing in your financial education. There's a difference between that and financial advice. A solid financial education allows you to know the difference between good advice and bad advice, rich advisers and poor advisers.

If you want to become rich -- and remain that way -- it's important to know what financial advice is best for you.

tan81

there's different financial advice for different people, and the price of poor advice is that millions will be poor if they follow advice that isn't aimed at them.

To become rich, I recommend investing in your financial education. There's a difference between that and financial advice. A solid financial education allows you to know the difference between good advice and bad advice, rich advisers and poor advisers.

这个是很多人没有做的事情。Ｔ。Ｈａｒｖ　Ｅｋｅｒ　是其中一位被富爸爸点名的世界级财务教育的训练者。

[ 本帖最后由 tan81 于 29-5-2008 12:48 AM 编辑 ]

小金鱼

富爸爸穷爸爸的书最好是４个职业，如何成为投资人为致富目标，残就残投资理念错误，以房地产借贷出租来投资，相信如今很多美国人都中照，本地也一样，有市没价，叫苦连天

tan81

富爸爸鼓吹的是投资于正数现金流的房地产，即是会带来被动收入的发地产。买股票，也是一样的建议。偏偏大众非常固执的认为，资本增值才是唯一的收入。
所以，才有今天的次贷风波。
其实，那种做法都是因为有人做了傻事（给高价钱买入），却希望有更多傻子（会卖更高的价钱）。
到了今天，还是有无数的人，在股票市场做同样的事情，不畏惧市场泡沫。

ljlq

原帖由 tan81 于 29-5-2008 09:59 AM 发表
富爸爸鼓吹的是投资于正数现金流的房地产，即是会带来被动收入的发地产。买股票，也是一样的建议。偏偏大众非常固执的认为，资本增值才是唯一的收入。
所以，才有今天的次贷风波。
其实，那种做法都是因为有人做了 ...

原来，一本书的影响力可以这样大，可怕
To become rich, I recommend investing in your financial education.
这个financial education范围很广，还是只是普通的看财报能力？

江湖

原帖由 ljlq 于 29-5-2008 11:38 AM 发表


原来，一本书的影响力可以这样大，可怕
To become rich, I recommend investing in your financial education.
这个financial education范围很广，还是只是普通的看财报能力？

你还不懂？ 负爸爸叫你上他的课程？

你不要上， 你一世埃穷啦， 其伎俩跟很多传销没分别？ 只不过， 他打着专业牌。。

蚂蚁小弟

原帖由 tan81 于 29-5-2008 09:59 AM 发表
其实，那种做法都是因为有人做了傻事（给高价钱买入），却希望有更多傻子（会卖更高的价钱）。

到了今天，还是有无数的人，在股票市场做同样的事情，不畏惧市场泡沫。

其实不只是股票市场，在其他市场，甚至古董、邮票等等市场都有一样的人...

tan81

看了报章和SHELL 这几天的走势，我怀疑政府会在近几天就调涨油价。
各位，尽量保持你的满缸。
还好我的是Kancil 和一辆Motor Bike。

blackmoon123

原帖由 tan81 于 30-5-2008 11:39 AM 发表
看了报章和SHELL 这几天的走势，我怀疑政府会在近几天就调涨油价。
各位，尽量保持你的满缸。
还好我的是Kancil 和一辆Motor Bike。

当真要起啊？。。。
那么各行的运输成本就大大增加了

goodluck88

满缸很吃油的哦。。。。

jasonhanjk

原帖由 ljlq 于 29-5-2008 11:38 AM 发表


原来，一本书的影响力可以这样大，可怕
To become rich, I recommend investing in your financial education.
这个financial education范围很广，还是只是普通的看财报能力？

从简单的开始，在来复杂的。
Financial education take place by understanding what is asset and what is liability.
In Rich dad defination, assets put money in your pocket whereas liability takes money out of your pocket.

但是呢，在Cashflow Quadrant的Be-Do-Have是必需学的。
"Be" is what it takes for you being a rich person. Are you descipline enough to put money away everyday for savings, investing and tiding?
也就是说，在投资前，您的现金流必须是正的。

[ 本帖最后由 jasonhanjk 于 30-5-2008 12:49 PM 编辑 ]

Mr.Business

会复杂吗？

对我来说，这asset和liability的说法是rich dad最基本也是最有价值的说法。。。可惜很多MLM的人误解了它。。。可能也不是误解，根据我知道的，rich dad就是因为被MLM看上成为她们的必读刊物而开始风行。。。

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 30-5-2008 02:54 PM 编辑 ]

jasonhanjk

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 30-5-2008 12:48 PM 发表
会复杂吗？

对我来说，这asset和liability的说法是rich dad最基本也是最有价值的说法。。。可惜很多MLM的人误解了它。。。可能也不是误解，根据我知道的，rich dad就是因为被MLM看上成为她们的必读刊物的开始风行 ...

哦。
因该讲的是，最简单在于富爸爸的Asset and Libility的解说。到复杂的需要专业人士的协助。
很多MLM都用富爸爸来promote他们找下线。大部分因该已失败收场。

[ 本帖最后由 jasonhanjk 于 30-5-2008 12:56 PM 编辑 ]

tan81

不知道为何你们会有这样的观点。看来你们没有真正看过清崎的作品。
清崎有出售一片DVD，是专门分享MLM 的好处。
不是MLM利用它，而是清崎一直都在推荐人们进入MLM，
磨练自己或建立自己的事业。
清崎还说，自己在年轻时，没有机会了解MLM这个行业，不然就不用花这么长的时间，达到财务自由。清崎亲自说的。
我不会争辩。
有兴趣者，可以搜索这片ＤＶＤ，是富爸爸商学院的产品之一。、

我只是指出事实。