【Public Bank 交流专区 3】花旗说大众是亚洲最贵的银行股

ThermoFisher

大众银行2007年损益表分析：

1)净利息收入占总收入的63.5%；(2006年：67.2%)

2)回教银行收入占集团净收入总额的9.4%；

3)其它营业(主要是来自基金管理业务，股票经纪活动和销售证卷)收入占集团总收入的27.2%(2006年：22.8%)

无花

2008年第一季
('000)                1Q2008
利息收入      894,699
回银收入    1,018,334
其他收入      557,536*   
                     
(*其中 200,000是ING给的商誉)

ThermoFisher

如果扣除了ING给的商誉：

2008年第一季

('000)         1Q2008

利息收入      894,699 （39％）
回银收入    1,018,334 （45％）
其他收入      357,536 （16％）

小巴菲

下星期应该会公布业绩了吧！

ss24

布林频带开始收缩，成交量达14VMA，MACD震荡指标转正数，MACD和SIGNAL线交缠在一起，MFI和RSI转好，STOCHASTIC脱离超卖弱势区。

股价开始闯10.20阻力了，接下来如果成交量能保持14VMA或以上，闯关的能力将大增，成败关键因素。

支持在10.00， 阻力在10.20，10.40

anferny

(吉隆坡10日訊)大眾銀行(PBBANK，1295，主板金融股)即將在下週中期公佈08財政年次季業績，分析員看好該銀行能夠再接再厲，取得優異表現。

基于備受看漲的貸款成長、銀行保險及單位信託部門的高收費業務營收、外匯收入增加，以及財富管理部門的強勁貢獻，分析員預期，該銀行將能夠取得更優異的營業額成長。

然而，分析員預計，大眾銀行的稅前盈利成長會減緩，主要是被日常開銷增加所壓制。該銀行所有員工都在今年1月份獲得調薪，同時銀行保險部門增加人手，進而提高成本。

據大眾銀行管理層透露，貸款成長迄今並沒有顯示走弱的跡象，同時對貸款成長保持樂觀看法，相信有強勁貸款批准率的6月份，將有望取得15至16%的全年目標。08財政年次季的貸款成長預期將衝破20%，特別是住宅、汽車貸款和中小型企業貸款帶動。

目前，大眾銀行的貸款可望高于分析員所預期的11%成長目標。然而，由于07年的貸款基數較低，還有批准與需求減少，所以他們認為，貸款成長將在08年下半年開始放緩。

隨著淨呆帳率從07財政年的1.34%，逐步改善到如今的1.09%，盡顯大眾銀行資產素質持續走強。雖然毛呆帳與貸款成長同步上升，但該銀行的淨新呆帳稍微減低。由于管理層的保守政策，所以預計短期內的資產品質，都不會有惡化的可能。新呆帳劇降，因此，該銀行管理層預期呆帳率將下滑到1%。

料年杪發終期股息

鑒于考慮到全球經濟可能陷入衰退和通貨膨脹升溫，連帶影響借貸活動並增加拖欠的可能，艾芬投資銀行分析員預計，未來數月的呆帳數量或將攀升。

另外，他預期，大眾銀行將在08年次季宣佈派發中期股息，然后在年杪派發全年總計40到45仙的終期股息。

由于資本與有風險資產比率穩健，加上流動資金充裕，大眾銀行管理層堅信能夠維持80至85%的股息支付率。

因此，該分析員保持08財政年每股盈利預測在70仙，但09至2010財政年卻降低到65仙，因為推論該銀行將推高資本和保留資金用作合併計劃，或資產品質面對問題。

隔夜拆息率(OPR)可能調升，將為大眾銀行捎來好消息，主要是因該銀行的大部分貸款是依據浮動利率所定。假設利率與定期存款利率分別增加50基點和25基點，該分析員相信，只要該銀行的資產品質依然良好，其08至09財政年淨利，將提升1.4%和0.8%。

艾芬投行分析員保持大眾銀行08至2010財政年的盈利預測，以及目標價格11.20令吉。

他預期，大眾銀行08年淨利將從07年的21億2390萬令吉，增加至24億5010萬令吉，而總收入從51億1130萬令吉提高至58億480萬令吉。

擁有強穩的資產負債表、抗壓盈利和極具吸引力的6.5到7%股息回酬，該分析員認為，該股股價近期滑落，提供投資者最佳累積時機。他給予該股「買進」的投資評級。

红龙

*DJ Public Bank Target Cut To MYR9.94 From MYR11.70 By CS   
  
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 10, 2008 21:57 ET (01:57 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

小散户

看来PBBANK真的会回复RM12 ++呢...虽然一天爬一个2个价位罢了.

小散户

原帖由 红龙 于 11-7-2008 10:09 AM 发表
DJ Public Bank Target Cut To MYR9.94 From MYR11.70 By CS   

怎样才能下到 9.94 ?

Mr.Business

新闻。

‘Uptrend in Klibor may be prelude to rate rise’
Published: 2008/07/11

AmResearch, which expects the overnight policy rate to be raised to 4 per cent by year-end, says banks are in talks with Bank Negrara on a rise in their base lending rate

BANKS are lending to each other at higher rates in the interbank market as they expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to raise the key interest rate, analysts said.

A rise in the Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate (Klibor) of late seems to suggest this, AmResearch said.

“The uptrend in Klibor suggests that financial institutions are betting on the possibility of an upward adjustment in the overnight policy rate (OPR) in the near future. The hike would range between 10 bsp (basis points) in the short term and a bigger 20-25 bsp in the longer term,” the research house said in a report on Tuesday.

It noted that the Klibor has been rising since late May, with the three-month rate moving up to 3.7 per cent from 3.61 per cent; while the 12-month interbank rate jumping 23 bps to 3.87 per cent from 3.64 per cent over the same period.

BNM has kept the OPR unchanged at 3.5 per cent since April 2006.

There is high expectation among analysts that BNM will raise the rate at its next monetary policy meeting on July 25.

AmResearch, for example, expects the OPR to be raised by 50 bps to four per cent before year-end.

Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, however, isn’t giving out any clues as to whether this will happen.

AmResearch believes that a hike in the OPR is inevitable given the surge in prices of good and services.

“Our checks revealed that bankers are in discussions with the central bank on the possibility of an increase in their base lending rate, which currently stands at 6.75 per cent,” it said.

Centrals banks in the region have been raising interest rates to control sharp spikes in inflation.

Indonesia, for example, raised its key one-month rate by 25 bps to 8.75 per cent while India raised its prime lending rate, for the second time this year, to 8.5 per cent.

Just on Tueday, Zeti said inflation in Malaysia probably exceeded six per cent in June, higher than initially thought. The last time it exceeded six per cent was a decade ago.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... 0711013647/Article/


Banks will be biggest winners: Analysts
By Roziana Hamsawi        
Published: 2008/07/11

Extending the home loan tenure by even a minimum of one year could bring more income for the banks, analysts say

BANKS will emerge the biggest winners from a proposed move to ease customers’ housing loan payments.

Banking analysts contacted yesterday said home financing is a major business for most major banks and extending the loan tenure by even a minimum of one year could bring more income for the banks.

However, not many customers will opt for this “aid” as a longer loan tenure means extra burden.

“As it is, the duration of mortgage loans is usually up until the borrowers are 60 to 65 years old, and by adding an extra five to 10 years to that is undesirable,” one analyst said.

He added that most banks have already put in place a mechanism to help their customers restructure their loans on a case-by-case basis.

One such bank is Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank), which has welcomed the call by the government for banks to assist borrowers with payment plans.

“Although we have not advertised the additional financial assistance, we have been offering our customers the flexibility to restructure or reschedule their financing on a case-by-case basis to ensure they are able to continue to meet their financial obligations,” said Maybank chief executive officer Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar.

He said the bank will continue to engage with its customers and monitor the current position with a view to providing additional financial advisory services to customers in need of such assistance.

Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop told the Dewan Rakyat on Wednesday that the Finance Ministry is in discussions with banks to reduce the monthly repayments for housing loans to lessen the financial burden of the lower-income group.

Another analyst admitted that such a scheme would most likely attract low-income earners with housing loans of RM100,000 and below.

“This new arrangement can help banks reduce their cost in managing possible non-performing loans by this group of income bracket,” he said.

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... 0711011424/Article/

弹煮

9.94是算出来的一个数字，并不一定要符合股市报价的规矩。

小散户

原帖由 弹煮 于 11-7-2008 01:28 PM 发表
9.94是算出来的一个数字，并不一定要符合股市报价的规矩。

哦哦哦...

bluecandc

Stock Name PBBANK-O1
Stock Code 1295F
Last Price 10.500
Change 0.500
High 10.500
Low 10.100
Volume 15,706
11-Jul-2008 02:45 PM

bluecandc

Stock Name PBBANK
Stock Code 1295
Last Price 10.300
Change 0.100
High 10.400
Low 10.100
Volume 7,399
11-Jul-2008 02:45 PM

WEE9858

看来还是排回RM10啦！

goodluck88

PBBANK-01 大起50cents....难道会是好业绩？？？

ss24

只是近看图发觉到自己好象会有盲点，所以打算远近具备，远看整体走势，近看细微变化。





布林频带持续收缩，成交量跌少于14VMA，MACD震荡指标持续正数，出现黄金交叉，MFI，RSI，STOCHASTIC持续转好，STOCHASTIC更达强势区。

股价连连突破10.20的250MA阻力和布林中频带10.40阻力，黄金交叉的出现和STOCHASTIC出现强势，加上其它指标均转好，显示短期内股价趋强，使到PBBANK的长期上升趋势线没有被破坏。惟美中不足的是没有强势成交量配合，但看回PBBANK历史深跌后的回弹，成交量都是缓慢转强的，所以需要后续成交量逐渐转强来让PBBANK深跌后持续回升。暂时来说PBBANK应该安全了。

支持在10.40，10.20，10.00， 阻力在10.60，10.80，11.00

prestigio

原帖由 弹煮 于 11-7-2008 01:28 PM 发表
9.94是算出来的一个数字，并不一定要符合股市报价的规矩。

分析师的所谓目标价没有一次准的。。。他们只是照着CFA课本的方程式来记算而已。。。如果真的准的话就没有人做工了，全部跑去读CFA就能发达了。。。

无花

盈利可全供股息
大眾銀行抗跌力強

報導：陳玉燕
（吉隆坡11日訊）大眾銀行（PBBANK，1295，主板金融）即將在下週公佈次季業績，該行放款增長及派息率持續強勁，在經濟不明朗時期，更散發抗跌力強的魅力。

聯昌證券研究指出，大眾銀行下週公佈業績，該行放款迅速成長，盈利料錄得約15%的健康增長率，本財年派息率更可走高至100%。

報告指出，大眾銀行次季放款增長，料按年增長20%，儘管下半年經濟或放緩，本財年放款成長仍放眼18%目標。

大眾銀行今早以平盤10.20令吉開市，盤中窄幅波動，休市時揚升10仙，報10.30令吉。

儘管通貨膨脹壓力走高，大眾銀行淨未履約貸款（NPL）仍維持在約1%。

“該行2010財年股本回酬率（ROE）估計超越30%，傲視國內其他銀行。”

全球翹楚

大眾銀行管理層估計，2012財年股本回酬達35%，未來則進一步達40%，成為全球翹楚。

自07財年第4季起，大眾銀行已無需再將盈利轉入法定儲備，因為后者已超越股東基金額，這意味著該行若獲得國家銀行批准，將可把100%盈利充作股息。

管理層也指出，該行“可輕易達到”80%至85%的派息率。

“以100%派息率為準，預測08至09財年每股派息將達98.1仙及1.123令吉，回酬率報10%至11%。”

即使派息率處于較低的80%至85%，回酬也將介于8%至10%。

聯昌證券研究給予大眾銀行“跑贏大市”評級，目標價格達13.30令吉。

報告指出，大眾銀行擴張股本回酬率、本財年股息躍進、海外貢獻提升，及進軍銀行保險等新領域，都是股項催化劑。

閉市時，該股掛10.50令吉，上升30仙，成交量達126萬9700股。

无花

大众去年的年报才拿香港的银行来做对比, 现在又拿全球来比

会不会冲晕了头???