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楼主: tan81

【tan81 个人专区】欢迎大家发表零售市场行情的看法

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发表于 15-4-2008 05:37 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 tan81 于 15-4-2008 03:08 PM 发表
用了一个星期的时间,才看完9年的报告。所以近期才潜水。
你要请我喝茶。


我是看IGB的。不过,兴趣却是MidValley。 所以,我会集中讨论 Midvalley。
不过,依然可以回答你,一些关于 ...


不了,要和春哥带你去cititel 冲凉,叫埋散叔。顺便照镜子。
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发表于 15-4-2008 05:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
如何能把图像放入帖里?请tan81兄来这里看看。

http://chinese4.cari.com.my/myfo ... e%3D1&sercari=6
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发表于 15-4-2008 08:26 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 422# 股友 的帖子

我又要跟...
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发表于 15-4-2008 08:30 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 424# 蚂蚁小弟 的帖子

你青头的,最好不要跟,,,,!除非你想要去拿红包。
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发表于 15-4-2008 10:14 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 422# 股友 的帖子

股友也时常去“照镜”噢,看来下次的聚会可以放在cititel了
大家洗洗,喝喝甘蔗,照照镜
IGB少说要5年才能break even,刚重手投资而且maintenance很Q高的;大大看看KLCC(贪污的嫌疑很重),pavillion那个说赚钱?
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发表于 16-4-2008 12:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
不错.应该是长辈级吧!以后多多指教.谢谢您的分享.照片中是你本人吗?长得瞒漂亮.
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 楼主| 发表于 16-4-2008 12:22 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 427# sin1985 的帖子

谁是长辈级? 俊哥比较适合成为长辈。
他准备被小辈带去偷吃。小心不要被抓包。

我放自己照片时,你错过了。可以到我的部落格找。
我应该比你大4年。
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 楼主| 发表于 17-4-2008 10:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
Most of us are aware of the sacrificial slaughter of Bear Sterns. Some people call it a bailout, but I call it a handout -- a government handout to some of the richest people on Earth, paid for by American taxpayers.

It's the survival of the richest, and the poorest be damned. There's something dismal about a society that operates by those values.

The Economy on Life Support

I understand why the Federal Reserve did what it did with Bear Stearns. The Fed was doing its job -- acting as the lender of last resort, pumping money into a dying system. It wanted to prevent a run on the bank and economic chaos. It was a very creative financing move, using the Fed's magic checkbook to pump more liquidity into a thirsty market -- sort of like a physician administering life-saving measures to a critically wounded patient.

My problem with the move is that the Fed saved this patient because it's a wealthy one. Saving the biggest investment banks in America is welfare for the rich. Would the Fed do that for you or me if we screwed up our investment portfolio? Is the Fed going to bail out the millions of people facing foreclosure because the value of their homes is less than their mortgages? If I'm a small-business owner and fall behind on my taxes, is the Fed going to pay my taxes for me? If I can't pay off my college loan, will the fed pay it for me?

Aren't these investment bankers supposed to be the smartest guys in the world? Aren't they the people we entrust with our investment and retirement money? Aren't they supposed to be financially fit? Some blame subprime borrowers as the culprits in this mess, but the supposedly brilliant investment bankers bought their mortgages. Was that smart?

A Handout for the Rich

This bailout was a signal to Wall Street that the Fed stands behind them -- that they're on the same team. It was a thumbs-up to the super-rich: "Do what you want. If you screw up, we'll cover your blunders."

Ralph Nader's father purportedly once said that "Capitalism will never fail because Socialism will always bail it out." My concern, especially in this election year, is that socialists will seek revenge. Already I can hear the war cry "tax the rich!" The problem with taxing the truly rich is that the rich simply move their money to countries that treat them and their money with undue respect. And when the rich move their money, the poor and middle class end up paying more taxes.

Not only will taxes go up, but the prices of food and fuel will increase, because the purchasing power of the dollar will continue to decline. This rise in cost of living, plus higher taxes and stagnant wages, could lead to unrest -- protests, riots, and possibly chaos. In other words, what the Federal Reserve was attempting to prevent may happen anyway.

When Capitalism Stumbles

Bailing out the rich means over $800 billion from the Fed's magic checkbook entered the market. Immediately, the stock market rebounded and the price of gold and silver declined. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro. While this looks like a good sign, I'm afraid the problem isn't solved. The inevitable may only have been delayed.

Our problem is a toxic U.S. dollar. Printing funny money steals from the poor and middle class, savers, and the elderly. It may be legal, but it isn't moral or ethical. As long as the Fed is allowed to wield its power at will, the prices for food and fuel will only go up.

So will the price of gold and silver. Some are calling for gold and silver to go over $2,500 and $200 an ounce, respectively. Some even believe gold will go as high as $5,000 an ounce. I hope not. While I get excited about seeing the gold I purchased for less than $300 an ounce flirt with $1,000 an ounce, I also begin to worry.

The rise in the price of gold is a sign that capitalism has stumbled. And when capitalism stumbles, workers' wages buy less and savings are wiped out. Even gains from the stock market are diminished because our dollar gains are worth less.

Troubles Past and Present

Throughout history, when capitalism stumbles chaos erupts and sometimes despots take over. For example:

• In 1897, the Russian ruble was pegged to gold and a period of relative economic growth followed. Russia went off the gold standard to finance World War I. The government fell to the Bolsheviks in 1917, and the Russian mafia took control of the economy.

• After World War I, the German middle class was wiped out and Adolf Hitler was voted into power in 1933.

• In the 1930s, China was the only country on the silver standard. In 1935, the nationalist Chinese government started issuing paper money. In 1937, in order to fight the Japanese, the government began printing funny money. The value of their currency went from four yuan per dollar in 1936 to a trillion yuan per dollar in 1949. In May of 1949, the Chinese government fell to Mao Tse-Tung and the Communists.

• In 1984, Yugoslavia hosted the Winter Olympics just as their currency, the dinar, began to devalue. In 1989, the IMF recommended more devaluation and the freezing of workers' wages. Rioting broke out, and in 1989 Communist party leader Slobodan Milsoevic was elected into power. Yugoslavia broke apart as war and ethnic cleansing began.

As capitalism falters, the rich move their money out of the country, violence increases, and politicians promising prosperity are elected. It's happened before, and I fear it's happening again. Trouble brews when we steal from the poor and give to the rich.
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发表于 22-4-2008 01:48 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 428# tan81 的帖子

tan81兄,你的照片越来越劲爆了,让人坐立不安。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 22-4-2008 01:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
请注意我的帖子的文章,不要过于注意我的照片。
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:01 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 431# tan81 的帖子

你老是换女友,要找你的贴很不容易。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 22-4-2008 02:04 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 432# ThermoFisher 的帖子

不要多多借口。这证明你是集中焦点在看照片的。。。
通常找贴,不是用名字的吗?

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发表于 22-4-2008 02:12 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 433# tan81 的帖子

因为我找帖是认照片不认名字的,所以有时会觉得很混乱,不过不要紧啦,看在你常常换美女的份上我就不投诉了
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:21 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 434# ThermoFisher 的帖子

压在你脸上,敝息而死也无遗憾了。。。。。
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:28 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 435# 股友 的帖子

你是在说你自己吧。。。哈哈。。。

(有象你那么漂亮的女朋友就应该满足了吧,还要去CITITEL照镜?!
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:33 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 436# ThermoFisher 的帖子

我是去当选美裁判,没其他的意思。(没人会信吧。。。。)
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:38 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 437# 股友 的帖子

能被你这个大帅哥选到是她们的福气。。。
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发表于 22-4-2008 02:43 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 438# ThermoFisher 的帖子

好了,不要再糟蹋这精华贴了,会中saman的,下次再促膝长谈吧。
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 楼主| 发表于 24-4-2008 02:58 AM | 显示全部楼层
更多文章在: http://tan81.blogspot.com/

回想自己开始决定长期投资,从去年10月算起,现在刚刚好半年了。
我觉得是时候分享一些看法和感想了。

拥有持久竞争力的企业,通常在巴菲特的眼中,拥有以下的特色:
a. 维持不变或一直增长的ROE
b. 和ROE相近的ROA数字 (为了剔出债务带来的不实际增长)
c. 强劲的自由现金流

对我而言,许多企业正很难做到 C 项。盈利持续提升,对于长期投资而言,不算什么。重点是,企业可否在保存盈利/ 现金的同时,继续保持竞争力。只有这样的公司,股东才会因此而受益于企业的增长。不然,只有大股东和基金得益于股价的波动。

我的选股原则,基本上是以上的条件。
目前,我持有约十家公司的股票(包括妈妈的投资)。只有组合里的SHELL和Bursa符合这些条件。Vitrox的财报也符合这些条件,不过它的历史少于5年。仍然有待观察。

我自己的投资,偏向于小型股,例如Mesdaq。原因是我的年龄成本较低和自己倾向于林区的投资看法。我认同他的观点,即股价之所以可以上涨,是因为公司的业绩可以增长、再增长!而且,我们都应该在基金买入前,持有这些股票。所以,大量基金持股的公司,是不会在林区考虑的范围。许多Mesdaq公司都符合林区的持股要求。

在这半年的过程里,我同时也发现了保守的Graham价值投资法。而且,适逢妈妈要求我替她管理和投资一些钱,所以,我认为Graham的价值投资法,可以给她有个保守的价格空间。AVDPKG和MFCB都是因此而被买入的。而SHELL和Bursa则是符合三大原则的股项。许多公司,都是因为没有低价至我的目标价格,所以都在保留现金,耐心等待。这些投资,股息会比较重要。所以,除了低于价值,和还必须有定期派息的历史,我才会帮妈妈买进。只有非常小部分的资金,用来购买一些便宜的成长股。

检讨这半年里的过错,就是买了不了解管理层背景的Keladi。当自己知道真相后,已经认同以亏损RM2000++的市价,卖出所有股份。

另外,自己在刚开始投资(10月)是美国房贷开始严重亏损的时候。可是我坚持根据巴菲特的意见,持续关注低价的价值。不要在乎局势和时势变得如何。只要有价值,卖得便宜,就应该买进。经过半年来,股市暴跌了几次,也经过了大选变天的刺激,大市下跌许多,可是一些股的价格还可以维持,甚至上涨。

不相信? 举个例子,我在1400-1500左右买进SHELL。在1200点-1300点,SHELL 依然值得RM11.50,而且还派了RM0.20 的股息,也将派发RM0.30 的股息。长期在我的观察名单的NESTLE,更展现了惊人的增长。综指1500点时,它的股价是RM26左右。现在由于盈利劲升,已经来到了RM30。现时的综指还在挑战1300点。

半年来的感觉很好。也体会到了不打算卖,就没有投资的压力。有股息,就不担心投资没有回报。个别的股价,真的可以逆市而向,因为股价始终反映在价值上。长期而言,股市是称重器。和各位共勉之。

更多文章在: http://tan81.blogspot.com/

觉得好,请自己赞助稿费,按GOOGLE。谢谢。

[ 本帖最后由 tan81 于 24-4-2008 03:24 AM 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 24-4-2008 03:34 AM | 显示全部楼层
适逢各位英雄正在凭吊MEGAN。我想分享自己学到的投资法,绝对不要投资于高负债的公司。林区曾经说过,没有负债的公司,永远不会破产。如果你不小心犯错,买贵了,还可以等待和补救。可是负债高的公司,却可以倒闭。所以,我特别喜欢净现金的公司。

而且好公司,是会有 c. 强劲的自由现金流。

节哀顺变
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