危机可能已经见底了，不过。。。

tanhy

Goldman Sachs to Repay U.S. Tomorrow, Blankfein Tells Lawmakers


June 16 (Bloomberg) --
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the fifth- biggest U.S. bank by assets, will repay $10 billion to the Treasury Department tomorrow, Chief Executive Officer[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=+Lloyd%0ABlankfein&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]
Lloyd Blankfein[/url]
wrote to congressional leaders.
Blankfein sent letters, copies of which were obtained by Bloomberg News, to members of the House Financial Services Committee, led by
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barney+Frank&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Barney Frank[/url]
and[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Spencer+Bachus&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Spencer Bachus[/url], and to the Senate Banking Committee, led by
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Christopher+Dodd&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Christopher Dodd[/url]
and
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Richard%0AShelby&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Richard Shelby[/url].
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Lucas+van+Praag&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Lucas van Praag[/url], a spokesman for Goldman Sachs in New York, confirmed the letters’ contents.
“Goldman Sachs is grateful for the government’s extraordinary efforts and the taxpayers’ patience,” Blankfein, 54, wrote the lawmakers. “Real stability can return only if our industry accepts that certain practices were unhealthy and not in the long-term interests of individual institutions and the financial system, as a whole.”
Goldman Sachs, the most profitable and highest paying securities firm before it became a bank last year, was among 10 lenders that won clearance last week to repay a combined $68 billion to the U.S. Treasury. The 10 banks also have sold more than $99 billion of debt guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. through the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program that went into effect in November.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley have said they don’t intend to issue more debt backed by the FDIC. Goldman’s van Praag declined to say whether Goldman Sachs will continue to sell FDIC-guaranteed debt, although he noted that the bank hasn’t issued any since March.

我最讨厌就是GS
不过GS其实不需要讨钱，bailout 其实只是要救Citi, BOA 和几家烂银行
GS这次因该炒股票赚了不少钱，投机石油因该又捞了一笔

財神

原帖由 tanhy 于 16-6-2009 12:17 发表


我个人看法，有时候快刀斩乱麻，比住vip 套房好

个人意见，输钱不要买凶手杀我

算了，等上到我要的价钱才卖吧。
最基本不要输钱的价位。

smart_603

wow...妖孽又再开新贴唱衰股市，不懂居心何在？明明都小牛了！可能他买了很多期货吧！从1400+回升到2300+，调整是正常的，它不调整我更担心。！别扮专家了，拿出真本是来！记住，股市没有专家，只有输家或赢家。我在这次的涨升赚了6位数，你呢？来比比成绩吧。

smart_603

哇！妖孽又开新贴唱衰股市了,不懂机心何在，可能买了很多期货吧！明明已经是小牛了，股市从1400+升到2300+，它不调整我更担心！整天扮专家，又没赚钱！我呸！股市是没有专家的，只有赢家或输家。我从这次的涨升赚了6位数，你呢？我想你应该在这里消失了吧！

tanhy

原帖由 smart_603 于 17-6-2009 03:58 PM 发表
哇！妖孽又开新贴唱衰股市了,不懂机心何在，可能买了很多期货吧！明明已经是小牛了，股市从1400+升到2300+，它不调整我更担心！整天扮专家，又没赚钱！我呸！股市是没有专家的，只有赢家或输家。我从这次的涨升赚了6 ...

我不会花时间来entertain 你
你这么本事，赚了这么多钱，自己开个贴来唱好

alpinev18

We Don't Have to Repeat the 1930s06/16/09 - 04:41 PM EDT
.
The S&P 500 suffered a drop of more than 22 points Monday, closing at levels not seen since the end of May. Is this significant? Maybe, but it is not significant in and of itself.

One day does not a trend make. One significant number for the 2.3% drop in the S&P was the volume, the second lowest since the March 9 bottom.
There did not appear to be a rush to take profits after the big rally. It was more like a case of boredom allowing the market to just fall through inattention. The follow-through trading for the rest of the week will determine if Monday's decline has significance. (The S&P closed down 11.75 points on Tuesday.)

Last week, a number of Real Money commentators expressed bearish opinions on the near-term prospects for the U.S. stock markets. Among those weighing in were Helene Meisler, Dick Arms, Doug Kass, Vincent Farrell and myself. This morning, an explosion of negative postings and publications was noted around the world. Some of these are discussed here. European View From London, Wolfgang Munchau, writing in the Financial Times, discusses a research paper by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke.
Eichengreen and O'Rourke compare the state of the world economy in 2009 to 1930's. They imply (it is not directly stated) the question: Can anything be done to prevent an economic path continuing to run parallel to the earlier course all the way to a bottom equivalent to 1932? This draft does not directly answer the question, but the implied answer (to the implied question) is at least "maybe," and possibly "yes." They conclude the current draft of the paper with the following paragraph: To summarize: The world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-1930. Looking just at the U.S. leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-1930. The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work.

The conclusion I take from this excellent paper is the opinion that correct policy actions (which have been started), if continued, can arrest the global decline. It is clear that they are not arguing that a recovery is near, just that the decline can be slowed and stopped without going all the way to a 1932-like condition in 2011.

The essence of the Eichengreen and O'Rourke analysis contradicts the idea of a 2009 recovery. They do not yet discuss a projected bottom to the current economic decline (a bottom must precede a recovery), and nothing they have done to date would indicate they will project a bottom in global economic activity in 2009.
Asian View Another article in The Financial Times reports Chinese Premier Wen Jibao is cautioning about "the durability of economic recovery in the world's third-largest economy." The Chinese concern is centered on the continued decline in worldwide demand for Chinese exports.
From Press TV, the drastic collapse of production in Japan has been reported: "Overall industrial production in Japan fell 22.1% in the January-March period from the previous quarter, and Japan's government announced earlier in the week that it forecasts a shrink in industrial output by a record 23.4% in the fiscal year, which started April 1." In the same article, government projections that as much as 10% of this may be recovered this quarter were reported. If that were to occur, it would indicate that the global economic decline was ending, since Japan's industrial production, like China's, is export- driven. It seems likely that either the Japanese government projections are too optimistic or the Chinese pessimism is overdone.

Last week, a report from Japan indicated the error was in Japanese optimism. It was reported on June 10 in RTE Business:

"Core machinery orders -- a key gauge of business activity -- fell 5.4% month-on-month in April, far worse than the average forecast of a 0.8% increase.
Meanwhile, Japanese wholesale prices dived 5.4% in May from a year earlier -- the biggest drop since March 1987, when prices also tumbled 5.4% -- and worse than a market forecast of a 5.1% fall." This is a direct contradiction to the previous projections of second-quarter growth. It also indicates the deflationary spiral that has engulfed the Japanese economy for much of the past 18 years has still not been arrested. Bank of Japan made a statement Monday indicating that it saw a slowing of the Japanese economic decline in the second quarter. According to the Financial Times, after a meeting of its policy board, the Bank of Japan said, "Japan's economic conditions, after deteriorating significantly, have begun to stop worsening. In the coming months, Japan's economy is likely to show clearer evidence of leveling out over time." This trichotomy of news items is typical of the situation investors face near possible inflection points. The three elements are: (1) current data is still negative; (2) the cheerleaders, in this case the Japanese government, are trying to anticipate the other side of the valley, the recovery, often prematurely; and (3) the analysts, in this case the Bank of Japan, are trying to measure the rates of change (second derivatives) that must occur before the inflection point that will mark the bottom of recession. Investors fall in the third category.

U.S. ViewMartin Hutchinson, writing today in Money Morning, presents a detailed argument that the current rally has been in the context of a secular bear market, which has yet to reach its ultimate bottom.
Another bearish opinion comes from Guy Lerner at The Technical Take blog. Guy's Dumb Money Indicator has surged to a high much above anything seen since 2006. While he is not ready to declare a bearish trading position, I am taking due note of an indicator warning. The Dumb Money Indicator has been a reliable contrary indicator (high bullish reading preceding market declines). Michael Patterson, reporting for Bloomberg last week, said that professional investors were becoming more bearish. This is in agreement with Guy Lerner's Smart Money Indicator, which was on the verge of issuing a bearish signal as of Friday's close. And, of course, we have the increase in bearish opinion last week right here on Real Money, as noted in the second paragraph. What Should Investors Do? Investors are trying to analyze the situation on the horizon, just as the Bank of Japan is doing in the earlier report. That is why stock market bottoms usually occur several months before recessionary contractions end. These rallies in recessions are usually correct in anticipating the end of the contraction, but occasionally they are false signals. Examples occurred with the 43-month recession that started the Great Depression. During the secular bear market that bottomed in July 1932, there were four primary bull markets (primary bulls defined by gains of 20% or more) before the final bottom. The largest of these was the first of the four, which rose 48% from Nov. 13, 1929, to April 17, 1930. Because of the severity of the current worldwide contraction, far worse than anything in 60 years, some have been trying to make comparison to the 1930s time frame, such as in the Eichengreen and O'Rourke paper. This produces comparisons of the current rally to the 48% advance that topped out in April 1930. The question that all investors should be trying to answer is whether or not the economic and market patterns will now diverge from the 1929-1930 pattern. And, if there is divergence, exactly what is the shape? Is it like the patterns of the two previous severe recessions (1973-74 and 1981-82) or will it be less upwards and more sideways, the so-called L-recovery? Many economic metrics, such as GDP decline, many unemployment statistics, and worldwide manufacturing decline, are significantly worse than for the two other severe recessions. This means that modeling the incipient recovery here on these two previous recessions can be questioned. Likewise, the nature of the world in 2009 is far different from 1930, so modeling the next couple of years on the 1931-32 pattern is also suspect. We come right back to the L-shaped recovery (a contraction followed by a long, broad bottom with little economic growth) as a default compromise. It remains to be seen whether or not the recovery will be strong enough to support the prices reached in the recent rally. Looking around the world, it seems this is a time to be prudent and keep some powder dry. The number of negative things emerging in the past several days could have negative effects on U.S. equities. The more adventurous may want to increase short positions in stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10516982.html

看看就好. 等一下赚到$$$ 的進來唱了.

臥龍先生

大家在這論壇裡, 有自由分享發表自己的意見和看法.  

希望你們都能有更多的發表,  讓更多的初學者受益.

不過,  請不要掀起罵戰.  謝謝....

臥龍先生

大家在這論壇裡, 有自由分享發表自己的意見和看法.  

希望你們都能有更多的發表,  讓更多的初學者受益.

不過,  請不要掀起罵戰.  謝謝....

tanhy

5年来最差　香港今年出口料萎缩12%

港府统计处公布，首季香港经济实质有7.8%负增长；贸发局则调低香港今年出口预测，由原先的负6%，降至负10%至负12%，将是香港自1954年以来，出口最差的一年。
　　贸发局首席经济师梁海国说，虽然有迹象显示，海外买家重新下订单，但只是补充存货的细单，买家态度仍然保守。他相信要外围经济复苏，出口才可回稳。
　　贸发局的最新调查也显示，出口商在本季度的信心指数，虽然显著回升，但仍低于50点的分水岭，反映悲观的人仍占多数。
　　不过，梁海国指出，香港出口表现最差情况已在今年首季反映，上半年出口将下跌21%，但他对下半年香港出口展望审慎乐观，预期第三季出口下跌程度将放缓，而第四季将好转。
　　“现时本港玩具及电子业出口信心有明显改善，相信可以带动本港出口复苏。”梁海国于记者会上表示，相信出口复苏将会由电子及玩具业带动。
　　另外，他相信，以全年计，中国大陆出口仍然不会有太大改善，但北京的刺激经济政策带动投资，可望改善个人消费意欲，有利整体经济环境，相信中国经济前景仍然较佳。
　　至于全球经济，今年将出现收缩，发达国家尤其严重，故对香港出口带来影响。他相信，2010年环球经济将复苏增长，幅度约逾2%，但未来两至三年增长速度将维持缓慢。
　　梁海国建议香港公司开拓中国内陆省份、和一些二三线城市巿场，因这些城市对出口依赖度较低，受金融海啸的影响也较轻微。
　　香港贸发局于今年3月进行调查，访问约500家在中国从事生产、采购或市场推广等活动的香港公司，发现其中33.4%已着手开拓内销。

tanhy

中国一年来首次减持美债 4月净抛44亿美元

美国财政部昨日晚间发布月度国际资本流动报告（TIC），中国4月份减持44亿美元美国国债，这是中国一年多来首次减持美国国债。
　　可查资料显示，自2008年5月份至今，中国虽试图调整外汇储备投资策略，但鉴于美元作为全球储备货币的地位一直难以撼动，不得不持续增持美国国债。
　　一年间，中国累计增持美国国债约为2600亿美元。
　　截至今年4月底，中国持有的美国国债为7635亿美元，仍是美国国债的最大持有者，但与3月底的7679亿美元相比降低44亿美元。值得注意的是，除英国外，持有美债规模紧随中国的日本、俄罗斯和石油输出国4月份也纷纷减持美国国债。同期，美国短期证券投资和其他政府票据的海外购买额度也下降445亿美元。
　　随着中国持有美债规模的扩大，有外媒称中国已经陷入“美元陷阱”。本月初，来自美国智库的一份报告指出，作为美国的最大债主，中国巨额外汇储备和美国过分依赖中国资金，不利于全球市场的稳定。
　　同样是本月初，到访中国的美国财政部长盖特纳曾试图宽慰中国投资者，承诺在美投资的安全性，并计划逐步削减美国国内财政赤字。在刚刚结束的八国集团财长会议上，盖特纳也和俄罗斯财长作了一番“沟通”。
　　观察人士指出，目睹中俄等国减持美国国债，盖特纳四处出面宽慰，但其所言显然只能姑且听之。国际货币基金组织昨日发表最新报告说，美国经济今年将下降2.5％，“坚实的复苏”要到2010年年中才会出现。

tanhy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he
sees the United States losing its top AAA credit
rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the
U.S. economy and stock market.

Prechter, known for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, joins a growing
coterie of market heavyweights in forecasting
the United States will lose its top credit rating as the government issues
trillions of dollars in debt to fund efforts to
bail out the economy.

Fears about the long-term vulnerability of the prized U.S. credit rating
came to the fore after Standard & Poor's in May
lowered its outlook on Britain, threatening the UK's top AAA rating. That
move raised fears that the United States could
face a similar risk, with the hefty amounts of government debt issued in
both countries to pay for financial rescues causing
budget deficits to swell.

Prechter, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York,
said he sees investors' confidence in an economic
rebound fading, a trend that will drag the S&P 500 stock index .SPX well
below the March 6 intraday low of 666.79 by the end
of this year or early next.

"There will be a leg down in stock prices, and it will affect all other
areas," including corporate bonds and commodities,
said Prechter, who is executive officer at research company Elliott Wave
International, based in Gainesville, Georgia.

Prechter, who is known for his bearish views, has repeatedly forecast a
steep decline in stocks this year, even as the stock
market has rebounded from 12-year lows set in March as optimism about an
economic recovery has risen.

Despite the government and Federal Reserve's massive rescues for financial
companies and securities markets, Prechter
expects credit markets to clam up again as they did in the first phase of
the global financial crisis and for the U.S.
economy to sink into a depression.

Although U.S. banks' recently passed government "stress tests" that
assessed the adequacy of their capital levels to absorb
losses and have been able to raise some capital in debt and equity markets,
"the banking sector is in severe trouble," as
more loans turn bad, he said.

The economy "is obviously heading toward a depression," despite the
government's efforts to dodge one, said Prechter.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has not averted a re-run of the 1930s
Great Depression, even though investors are
becoming firmly convinced that the Fed has avoided disaster and that the
economy has hit bottom.

"It's the next leg down (in stocks) that will make it clear that these
things are not true," Prechter said.



呵呵，要来的终究会来

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 16-6-2009 08:16 AM 发表
昨天DOW JONES 没有最后10分钟的奇迹发生
两个可能性：

1）炒家改变玩法，不玩最后10分钟了（可能今天才顶）

2）炒家不顶了，走鬼啊！

如果今天1）没有发生，我相信就是2）了

連续几天都小跌, 怎麼搞的.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 18-6-2009 10:33 AM 发表


連续几天都小跌, 怎麼搞的.  

炒家的心意很难抓摸的
上2个礼拜的最后10分钟奇迹，可能代表他们手上还有很多票
如果真的是这样，就需要一点一点丢，而不是抛售
不过大势的乐观气氛已经不见了

耐心点吧

財神

原帖由 alpinev18 于 18-6-2009 10:33 发表


連续几天都小跌, 怎麼搞的.  

这样的小跌才可怕，上次18xx的时候也是慢慢的小跌。
不知不觉就跌到了14xx。

tanhy

美国上个礼拜宣布领失业救济金的人减少，结果各主要媒体就很兴奋的说失业人数减少，经济开始好转
有没有人认真的去研究过事实真的如此？

事实是，领失业金的人减少，因为他们已经没有资格领取

美国各州的policy 都不一样，不过一般上只会给失业人士26个礼拜的救济金

即时说，过了半年还找不到工，你就准备吃自己，而这次有一半的人是因为这样而被踢出失业名单（那我宁愿失业）

所以说，在市场上有各种各样的假消息。身为投资者一定要懂得分析，否则傻头傻脑输了钱,还以为只是运气不好。

tanhy

Goldman Sachs on pace for record bonuses: report
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc is on pace to make record bonus payouts after a robust first half, the Guardian newspaper reported on Sunday.


Goldman staff in London were briefed on the outlook and told they could look forward to the bonus hikes if the company registers its most profitable year ever, the report said.

The surge in projected profit can be attributed to a lack of competition and increased revenue from trading foreign currency, bonds and fixed-income products, the newspaper said, citing insiders at the firm.

Bonuses have been a point of contention between the Obama administration and Wall Street, which last fall endured a credit crisis that paralyzed the financial markets. The U.S. Treasury responded with the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which made $700 billion in loans available to banks.

Goldman Sachs received $10 billion from TARP, which it repaid last week.

In letters to lawmakers last week, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein said the firm is obligated to "ensure that compensation reflects the true performance of the firm and motivates proper behavior."

A Goldman Sachs spokesman in New York was not immediately available to comment on Monday.

历史性高的花红！！！
既是说有很多傻瓜的钱在里面！！！

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 22-6-2009 08:40 PM 发表
美国上个礼拜宣布领失业救济金的人减少，结果各主要媒体就很兴奋的说失业人数减少，经济开始好转
有没有人认真的去研究过事实真的如此？

事实是，领失业金的人减少，因为他们已经没有资格领取

美国各州的po ...

澳洲的GDP 0.1% 增長? 脫离RECESSION ? 請看看人家怎样说. SOURCE : SMH.COM.AU

No recession ? Tell that to the burgeoning jobless
Ross Gittins
June 4, 2009

IF YOU are optimistic enough to believe the economy's modest growth in the March quarter means we're not in recession, good on you. Let's hope there are a lot like you.
There more people who believe the economy is still firing on at least one cylinder, the smaller the downturn will be. That's because the reduced spending prompted by fear and anxiety - negative psychology - does as much to push the economy down as more concrete factors do.
But my job is to tell it as I see it, not to concort happy fair stories, no matter how convenient such deception might be. And the truth is - as every sensible economist will tell you - we are already in recession and have been for some months.
What this episode demonstrates is how silly it is for the media to persist with the notion we're not really in recession unless the economy goes backwards for two quarters in a row. The trouble with that arbitrary rule is it's too prone to throwing up false negatives - just what it did yesterday.
The acid test for recession is not quarterly movements in gross domestic product, it's what's happening to unemployment. This has risen by 1.5 percentage points in 14 months. That's more than 160,000 extra people without jobs. Not in recession did you say ?
Even so, there are two positive messages from all this.
First, despite all the criticism from Malcolm Turnbull and the self-appointed economic experts of talkback radio, there is now convincing evidence the Government's cash bonus payments have succeeded in limiting the slowdown in consumer spending and in bolstering demand for new homes. That's true even though the factors that did most to produce yesterday's surprise positive growth were a sharp fall in imports and increase in rural exports.
Second, Wayne Swan's repeated claim the world recession won't hit our economy nearly as hard as the major developed economies are being hit is now a lot easier to believe.

alpinev18

tan 大大失踪了?

还是忙着算鈔票?

这一次的金融风暴和10年前的亞洲金融风暴有一點不同... 那就是 10 年的亞洲风暴, 車都賣不出, (即一個車牌可以顶很久.. 好像JFA XXXX, JFA 可以顶几個月). 可是10年后的.. 車还是可以賣. 奇怪.

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 26-6-2009 09:15 AM 发表
tan 大大失踪了?

还是忙着算鈔票?

这一次的金融风暴和10年前的亞洲金融风暴有一點不同... 那就是 10 年的亞洲风暴, 車都賣不出, (即一個車牌可以顶很久.. 好像JFA XXXX, JFA 可以顶几個月). 可是10年后的.. 車 ...

最近没什么新闻，伯南克那些话，讲了等于没有讲

小星的人储蓄这么多，基本上影响不大，政府还有大把储备准备救市

不过最近有个朋友在担心饭碗，不知道是个案还是好像某个官员说的，可能会有第2轮的裁员潮

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 26-6-2009 02:01 PM 发表


最近没什么新闻，伯南克那些话，讲了等于没有讲

小星的人储蓄这么多，基本上影响不大，政府还有大把储备准备救市

不过最近有个朋友在担心饭碗，不知道是个案还是好像某个官员说的，可能会有第2轮的裁员潮

我覚得是很有可能. H1N1, 很多人都不敢出門了. TRAVEL AGENTS, AIRLINES, 购物商場要自求多福.

裁員是很有可能的, 10% 的UNEMPLOYMENT = 大把人没$消费, 经済要怎样好?