朋友, 还不走,等什么? (KLCI 1016) 14/05/2009

goodluck88

谢谢calm兄分享。。。

8years

哈哈哈哈，不管今天有没有起，你的回报率已经是50%了，怎样看你都是请定了。我满仓的回报率比你还要少，真是望尘莫及。

我微观全部有关指数包括黄金或美金，感觉市场认为经济即将更醒，可能会在经济更醒6个月前率先领跑。所以说市场千变万化，少一成功力也会被市场吞没。续98年后，我可能又一次捉底成功，目前依然闭关中，还不能轻下决定，还需再看看。

yewsin56

原帖由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 01:21 发表
第一, 我认为27/Oct/2008还不是底. CDS 太大wok 了, USD600万亿去杠杆化
第二, Chookf 讲房價见底,经济才见曙光
第三, 政府救了又救都还有问题
第四, 金融第二波, 第一波美国, 第二波欧洲. 第一波金融,第二波实体 ...

帮你想帮你加
第十五，要经过成交量少之又少压价了又再压价，股民多数绝望的时候。
第十六，大多数机构在媒体上都看空后势。
第十七，推出600亿救市的利好政策，但投资者已对此麻木不仁。
第十八，证卷行股民很少，冷冷清清空空荡荡。
第十九，大盘波澜不惊，指数振幅很小。
第二十，散户们与基金和其他机构都亏损严重。
第二十一，出现大量的有投资价值的股票，本溢比在十多倍上下。
第二十二，周围不断有退出股市的股民。
第二十三，投资者的心态很脆弱敏感，一有风吹草动就胆战心惊。
第二十四，投资者对赢利的期望值较低。大家可比照看看。

calm88

Just relinquished all the shares  when HSI touched 13220. Now 100% cash position. Wait for HSI drops back to 12500 - 12800. Use the profit, buy again to aim at 13500 - 14000. Don't ask why 12500,12800, 13500, 14000. I guess only. I duduce 3-6 months trend. 3-6 days up and down are all guess works.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 02:58 PM 编辑 ]

calm88

越來越觉得自己像个投机者... 不是像...直情就是投机者!

我想做经济人或投资者多些.

patience88

今天很旺场啊,calm兄不再现身的? 分享你的进展.

[ 本帖最后由 patience88 于 19-3-2009 11:03 PM 编辑 ]

calm88

虚擬到实体, 银行到企业, 实际到心理层面, 小众到大众. 又到要"短"恒生的时后了. 入市再记下來. 再观察未來三天看如何? (20,23,24 March 2009).

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 19-3-2009 11:58 PM 编辑 ]

goodluck88

卡贴。。。。。。。。。。

fabregas81

謝謝CALM大﹐8大和YEWSIN大的分享

calm88

Very short term:
1) Tim Geithner monday plan to rescue banks...Guess: Stocks go up or down??
a) Buy toxic assets from banks with the help from private sectors to enable banks to lend again. (even all toxic assets  purchased by FED, Banks dare not to lend at this massive crisis period. Other debts turn sour too. Smart businessman may not willing to borrow. Businesses which borrow either are experiencing business problems or want to roll over their debts.)
b)

2) G20 Meeting... ,... Guess: ??
G20 agenda focuses on 3 main areas.
a) Solve the crisis through fiscal (US wants it, German waits) and monetary means (UK, Japan US desperately doing it) and by encouraging banks to lend.
b) Regulatory reform in medium term (UK and France want it, US waits)
c) strengthening world institutions such as IMF so that they can provide more help to crisis-hit developing countries. (EU and US want it, China waits)
But everyone has different priorities. One day meeting will not able to agree on all issues. World stock market turns gloomy?

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 22-3-2009 02:09 PM 编辑 ]

goodluck88

1。早盘上了，下午套利吧。。。

calm兄如何看？

calm88

Money's muddled message
Economist
Today’s fattened central-bank balance-sheets evoke fears of inflation. Deflation is the bigger worry

BACK in 2002 Ben Bernanke, then still a Federal Reserve governor, declared that “under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” That does not mean it is easy.

On March 18th America’s inflation rate was reported at 0.2%, year on year, in February. The same day the Fed said “inflation could persist for a time” at uncomfortably low levels. Yet some economists and investors insist high inflation, even hyperinflation, is lurking in the wings. They have two sources of concern. The first is motive: the world is deleveraging, ie, trying to reduce the ratio of its debts to income. Policymakers might secretly prefer to do that through higher inflation, which lifts nominal incomes, than through the painful processes of cutting spending and retiring debt, or default. The second is captured by the Fed’s announcement that it plans to purchase $300 billion in Treasury bonds and an additional $850 billion of mortgage-related debt, bringing such purchases to $1.75 trillion in total, all paid for by printing money. It is not alone: around the world, central-bank balance-sheets have ballooned (see chart).

This is scary stuff to those who swear by Milton Friedman’s dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” But the role of the money supply in creating inflation is less obvious than monetarism suggests.

The quantity theory of money holds that the money supply, multiplied by the rate at which it circulates (called velocity), equals nominal income. Nominal income in turn is the product of real output and prices. But does money supply directly boost nominal income, or does nominal income affect velocity and the demand for money? The mechanism is murky.

Central banks control the narrowest measure of the money supply, called the monetary base—typically, currency plus the reserves that commercial banks hold with the central bank. But the relationships between the monetary base, broader monetary aggregates and nominal income is highly unstable.

Central banks have mostly given up trying to target inflation via the money supply. Instead, they study the “output gap” between total demand and the economy’s potential to supply goods and services, determined by such things as the labour force and capital stock, as well as inflation expectations. When demand exceeds supply, inflation rises. When it falls short, inflation falls, and in the extreme becomes deflation. To influence demand, the central banks move a short-term interest rate up or down by adjusting the supply of bank reserves. Changes in the policy rate ripple out to all interest rates paid by borrowers.

The financial crisis has bunged up that transmission mechanism. Risk aversion, fear of default and depleted bank capital have caused private borrowing rates to deviate sharply from policy rates. Central banks have responded by expanding loans to financial institutions, purchasing private securities and buying government debt. They have financed this growth in their assets through increased liabilities such as commercial-bank reserves, swaps with central banks and other ways of printing money.

Is this monetarism? It depends on whom you ask. The Fed calls its policy “credit easing” to emphasise that, though its policy rate is almost zero, it is using different channels to ease credit and boost spending. Even its Treasury purchases are to “improve conditions in private credit markets”. That these actions expand the money supply is secondary. Similarly, the Bank of Japan is buying stocks and may make subordinated loans to banks to boost their capital and lending capacity; the money supply is not a consideration. The Bank of England, on the other hand, calls its purchases of government and private debt “quantitative easing” and explains it in monetarist terms. It expands investors’ holdings of money, encouraging them to shift to other assets, boosting wealth and investment. It acknowledges this may not work. Indeed, merely the news that it would purchase government debt drove down long-term interest rates, just as the Fed’s announcement did, an entirely conventional stimulus to demand. The rhetoric may be different but the policies are largely the same.

If the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus works, output gaps will eventually close. Then central banks will have to reverse their unconventional policies and raise interest rates. They may hesitate in the face of political pressure or an explicit decision to err on the side of inflation rather than deflation. In that case, inflation will rise.
Go forth and multiply

But for the moment deflation is a bigger threat. If the Fed’s current policies fail, fiscal policy can be employed to boost demand. There, too, the Fed has a role: it could buy the bonds needed to finance tax cuts or government spending, thereby limiting the impact on long-term rates. Such debt monetisation evokes fears of hyperinflation. But inflation would result only if monetisation boosted aggregate demand enough to exceed aggregate supply. Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomic Advisers, a consultancy, reckons America’s output gap will reach 9% of GDP by next year. To eliminate that he says the Fed would have to monetise more than $1 trillion of additional stimulus over two years, assuming standard multiplier effects.

The obstacles are primarily political, not economic. Finance ministers are averse to debt and central banks even more so to monetising it for fear of becoming a tool of the government. That aversion is usually healthy but not when deflation looms. The option should be on the table, as long as there are safeguards for the Fed’s independence. Frederic Mishkin, a former Fed governor now at Columbia University, says the important thing is that the Fed, not the Treasury, be the initiator of such purchases, and only after stating that it is consistent with price stability.

On March 15th Mr Bernanke said that the biggest risk facing the economy now is that “we don’t have the political will, we don’t have the commitment to solve this problem.” At least for the moment, it is not the Fed chief’s gumption that is lacking.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 24-3-2009 12:36 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

I am 100% Cash again. Sold the last portion of the derivative today at 13191. Now is time to rest...May buy some share to participate for the last part of this rebound, less risky. Then sell everything and wait to short. The second most dangerous point will appear in next 2 weeks: 23 March to 5 April

我的外国资金又100%现金在手了.在13191将所有的衍生産品卖光了. 现在也该休息下...可能会买些母股, 参与最后的烟花盛典.风险较低. 之后,清倉等下挫"短"它. 第二危险的点将在这两个星期出现3月23日 至 4月5日

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 24-3-2009 12:34 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

我回來啦. 哗!今天股市升得很多呀! 港股清仓了...明天要上14000了, 我又卖早了,又错了.

现在手上还有些unit trust 和马股. 伺机抛售...最迟星期四卖光它. 见900点就short 它. 到星期四如果还在880以上也short它

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 24-3-2009 12:30 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

今天HSI 要上14000了, 我也开始短了15%资金. 待会转"信任退休基金"去Money Market...短线吃不完啦, 下午再看看将马股抛售另外30%(昨天临收市,卖了30%)...今天明天也可能要开始Short 大马期指了...要hold 半年那种. 第一次献及你,心平气和.

以上动作用以下分析为根基.

港股上最多14500... ...到时再"短"..下探13000... 在4月上旬完成. 3月与4月基本上是上揚的.5月与6月就是世纪惊天大

马股未耒半年向下探7XX... ... 尤其要看5,6月... ...

长期投资...再等等吧!

这些都是我的備忘录.只供參考..我都沒100%把握...你信我写的, 你就蠢啦

如果以上都錯了怎么办?6月全买,给多50%premium也安啦! 等五年大牛了

沒时间写理由. 自已補上.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 26-3-2009 10:53 AM 编辑 ]

8years

你才讲不要投机，要投资，现在。。。。。。

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 18-3-2009 12:13 AM 发表
越來越觉得自己像个投机者... 不是像...直情就是投机者!

我想做经济人或投资者多些.

可以用几个方向答你:

1)读Graham 的书第八章,或

2)向我们国父请教八下,或

3)最赖皮的, 我想之麻, 世事不"如願"者,十之八九

第2), 3)点只限于口舌之爭,于人无益

第1)点可以参长, 又可增进功力,何乐而不为.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 26-3-2009 11:07 AM 编辑 ]

Gnoit

谢谢楼主无私的分享， 我从第一贴爬起， 获益不少。也怪自己发现此贴迟了（赚少很多了）， 楼主对大势分析的很准决， 很强。
我也是2月中进场但太早离场了，所以赚少很多 。。

私人问题， 楼主是全职投资者吗？

希望 楼主继续分享和加油。 我会常来此楼做客的。

那么， 楼主认为美股六月尾才是正真的低吗？

calm88

今天又是临收市再"短"多18%总资金..共33%入市了.

信任退休基金延迟一天才转入money market.

马股再出30%...明天可能要出完它.再看市场"热度"如何.

转势是最迷人的. 我们现在是处於转势的关口吗?

calm88

私人问题， 楼主是全职投资者吗？
只是业余

那么， 楼主认为美股六月尾才是正真的低吗？
底是底, 但是不是真正的底就还不知道了. 去到那兒再看.

当沒时间写分析帖时, 这些帖子记录机械式的买,等,卖...会很闷的. 那就请你转贴好新闻, 如经济,世界, 政治等news, 与大家分享, ok?

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 26-3-2009 10:41 PM 编辑 ]