朋友, 还不走,等什么? (KLCI 1016) 14/05/2009

elvingan

明天早上入市最好：首选TWSCORP！！
等待着一波反弹完毕才卖出，应该有20~30%赚利~~

calm88

看这楼帖子, 须从第一楼开始看才有味道. 一般上分三大类.
一, 时效只有一至两天的投机类
二, 时效一般上有一到三个月的预测类
三, 时效以年计算的大趋势推测类

Happy Reading

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 13-3-2009 12:20 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

写经济还有一些反应,写摸底转势, 反应竟然下降. 以后写写股票分析, 看看反应又如何?

cct2049

S&P 500 740 -750 點是的關鍵阻力重要位置
冲不过这个關口
下一个支撐位大約在 650-660 點

calm88

Australia's banking historyAustralia's banking history can be divided into four eras: those of the private banks, the Commonwealth Bank, the Reserve Bank and deregulation.


Private Banks (1817-1911)


Governor Macquarie, appalled by the monetary anarchy prevailing in the colony he ruled, gave a charter (which he didn't have the power to issue) to some citizens in 1817 to form Australia's first bank, the Bank of New South Wales. Its purpose was to be a bank of issue, so that its banknotes would provide a sound currency.

It soon had competition and a private banking system developed in Australia. In those days banks took deposits (which were their liabilities) and reloaned the money by discounting bills of exchange (which became assets). The bank could then issue its own banknotes on the security of these assets.

There was no central bank. Each private bank stood or fell on its own credit. As long as its assets were believed to be sound, its notes would be freely accepted.

This was quite pleasant in good times, because a bank could expand its balance sheet rapidly by issuing its own notes. But whenever a panic struck and the notes were presented back for the bank to honour, banks were liable to hit the wall.

This happened with alarming frequency. There were bank collapses in almost every decade of the 19th century. The climax came in 1893 after the failure of fraudulent land banks in Victoria triggered a wholesale run on banks. In the space of six weeks, 12 banks closed their doors. Those banks accounted for two-thirds of the total banking assets in Australia.


The Commonwealth Bank Era (1911-1957)


The crisis increased pressure - which had been building for some time - for the formation of a central bank. The Commonwealth Bank was formed by the Federal Government in 1911 to issue notes which would be backed by the resources of the nation.

This solved the currency problem. Notes issued by the CBA and later the Reserve Bank have always been accepted as legal tender, although their exchange value varies internationally.

And for a while it looked as though the other great problem - unsound bank lending - had also been solved. From 1894 until 1979 only three banks failed in Australia, all in 1931.

Banking became more tightly controlled during World War II, with the central bank dictating overdraft rates and, later, statutory reserve deposit ratios and liquid asset ratios.


The Reserve Bank Era (1957-1983)


The CBA's central banking powers were transferred to the Reserve Bank of Australia when the RBA was created in 1959. In this era, banking was tightly controlled, but safe. As the post-war boom of the 1950s developed, the banks began chafing under these restrictions. Finance companies were growing quickly, untrammelled by central banking controls and able to lend on anything from domestic appliances to cars, houses and companies.

The banks formed finance companies or invested in them and became players in this rapidly expanding market. The finance companies began lending to the corporate cowboys of the era. FCA, an offshoot of the Bank of Adelaide, financed Alan Bond's first property speculation in 1960.

A whole fringe banking system began to emerge. The licenced banks were still controlled, but finance companies, merchant banks, foreign banks and (to a large degree) state banks were not subject to RBA supervision.

There was a natural affinity between these fringe bankers and the plethora of corporate cowboys and speculators who grew up in the 1970s and 1980s. A speculator who is hoping to make 100% on his deal is not too fussy about whether his financier is lending to him at 10% or 20% and will cheerfully pay a fee as well.

The speculators generated huge profits for the financiers (including the banks) but sometimes the profits were only paper. The interest and fees would be capitalised as part of the loan to the speculator and sometimes the speculator would collapse and the loan would never be repaid. It could take a decade for the loss to be realised and by that time the banker who made the original loan - and earned a commission and promotion on the deal - may well have retired.

Banks and especially fringe banks were making increasingly unsound loans, for two reasons. The first was high profits which could be reported (but not always collected) from high risk business. The second was competition to get or maintain market share.

From the 1970s, the financial system began suffering serious tremors. The Mineral Securities collapse of 1971 sparked the most serious money panic in Australia since 1893. In 1974 Mainline and Cambridge Credit collapsed. In 1977 there were panic runs on building societies in South Australia and Queensland and two bank-owned finance companies had to be rescued by their parent banks. In 1979 Associated Securities collapsed and FCA got the Bank of Adelaide into so much trouble it had to be taken over by ANZ.


Deregulation Era (1983- )


Between 1983 and 1985 Treasurer Paul Keating deregulated the system by (a) floating the Australian dollar in December 1983; (b) granting 40 new foreign exchange licences in June 1984; and (c) granting 16 banking licences to 16 foreign banks in February 1985.

This accelerated lending competition further. Banks competed with by reducing the security they required and lowering their rates. Crazy loans were made to corporate cowboys.

After the cowboys collapsed the banks were left counting their losses, which ran to tens of billions. A new wave of managers took over and the banks rebalanced their balance sheets by charging stiff rates to their good customers to make good the losses on their bad customers. Australia's four big banks today have been burned by the 1980s and learned the lessons. How long they remember the lessons is another question.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 15-3-2009 05:58 PM 编辑 ]

蚂蚁小弟

咦，怎么过来你家，看到的，却是我家东东
嘿嘿

您老也来参详参详啊
好事来的
小弟不明白的就要靠大哥了

蚂蚁小弟

谢谢calm兄分享

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 13-3-2009 05:57 PM 发表
Australia's banking historyAustralia's banking history can be divided into four eras: those of the private banks, the Commonwealth Bank, the Reserve Bank and deregulation.


Private Banks (1817-19 ...

Re-regulation...恢复监管
Increase cost of capital, long term interest climbing up. 资金成本上揚, 长期利率长升
less income for Banks, Insurance companies operate in developed countries. 发达国家的银行,保险业收入太跌
Less or no more FDI for developing countries. 外资减少流入发展中国家
Less export. Export-oriented growth model may not work liao. Need to change country Econ Growth model 出口减弱. 出口创汇谷增长模式到终点了. 出口导向经济体须要改变经济成长模式了.这是一个时代的終结?
so All countries concentrate on encouraging domestic consumption, Gov Spending. 所以大部分发展中国家, 不管大小, 都靠內需与政府开水喉lu.

Malaysia is a country too small for D.Consumption so Econ no good loh Currency experiences long term depreciation. So go out to ocean to invest. 小马,国小民寡, 内须不足,经济焉能不滞. 汇率长期焉能不降. 我们奔向"大海洋"前进吧,与大鯊魚游泳, 跟大鱷交朋友.因为你不找他,他会來找你.

国家经济须要一个Structure Reform(上高链,佔市场, 勤找niche, 培小企, 建大业, FTA, 中印非, 南美洲, 美日欧,不放过, 死proton, 毙保护, NEP,输脱裤, 滅债赁,減補贴, 政经改, 春天來).

散户也须要一个Thinking Reform (出海去, 与鯊游, 见大鱷, 交朋友, 强自身, 单刀利, 通世情, 避险境, 政经文, 要专研, 生意经,要朗诵,长赚益,要成长, 人贪怕, 要克制, 减债赁, 增陰功, 资本重, 要管理. 重父母, 重家人,重朋友, 重孝礼, 重情义, 要贡献, 要回馈, 要知足,要道德, 要养性, 要平靜. 人一世, 始安怡. )

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 02:16 AM 编辑 ]

fighter00101

原帖由 飞天价 于 11-2-2009 09:23 AM 发表
楼上表酱认真，我只是随便灌水。
我希望软着陆，慢慢跌跌到年尾12月就最好，
那我就有时间储蓄子弹。

根据网上大部分资料。。。 股市可能2010年中才有机会满满复苏。。

bill gates 说要5年到10年才可能到回以前的价位 ！！

所以还有很多时间准备子弹。。

加油 ！！

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 10-3-2009 11:53 PM 发表
今晚美股造好上300点, 见6850. Confirmed 转势. 明天恒生上300点开市12000, 再call. Call 完了就等最佳转势时机, 最后最灿烂的煙花可能就在5月中到6月中出现了. 到时小心啦.

现在最须要做的是等待

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 12:05 AM 编辑 ]

8years

今天听了calm88兄讲解的投资策略实在是进可攻，退可守，实在是好策略，让真正闭关修炼的我多多受益了。也祝calm兄已经取得50%的回报率，我望尘莫及。希望calm兄可以多讲些你判断的原因，好让大家可以学习学习，感谢感谢。
我非常赞同calm兄对大势的判断，不过非常好奇calm兄是如何取得这些判断，希望calm兄不吝指教指教。

calm88

金融股终归是靠杠杆做生意, 又不透明, 现在又处于风眼间, 火中取"杰", 勇气可加! 用大部份资金投入, 也太进取了些. 真的要对你写个服字.

现在风向顺着吹, 问题还不大, 万一看錯风向, 或风转向, 一半资金在金融股, 被綁事小, 若长持唯恐有失(收档, 国有化之类), 无险可守... ...

若认为底部未现, 这一趟只是抄反弹, 那可参考以下另一种方法:

美港股反弹到差不多(比如今晚的美股 DJ 7334, 和明天的HSI 13300-13500) 或卖出金融股,持现金... 或卖出金融股, 转持资源股也不坏. 这就看你觉得反弹到顶了吗?

衍生産品用於策略部署应可达到进攻皆宜的境地, 凡事都留两手策略, 以应万一. 涉险大贪, 则可免则免.

金融股与衍生産品一样, 风险太高了.

明天我会在13300- 13500 出脱最少一半持股. 另一半再"博" 500 - 1000点 (13500 - 14000). 说明是博, 就只有五五波了. 一不对路, 就做"田雞" - - - - "Yang".... 现在就別买了, 市场又快又狠,兵凶战危, 大势向下, 小心啦!

以上所写以美港股为对象. 马股应该牛皮吧...如升上就short它.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 12:23 AM 编辑 ]

8years

我对资源股不熟识，你有什么介绍？你还没有解释你对大势的看法如何得来。

我认为大势出现了奇怪的现象，有可能是金融股的底部，所以我还想再看看市场的想法如何，我听到市场的声音是很害怕金融股真的接触了底部，如果是这样，之前卖出的人可能必需买进，这从成交量可以看得出来。我目前还没有什么心水，依然还要见步走步，最近闭关就是研究这些东西。我认为事情没有我们想象的那么简单，这看起来不是简单的反弹，要再细心研究是真反弹还是真触底。

所以希望可以得到你的讯息来参考参考。我的看法可能会遗漏了什么方面没有看到。市场瞬息万变，算少了一样整盘棋就会不同了，我希望集各方的看法来得到最佳的结论，希望你不吝赐教，感谢感谢。

calm88

原帖由 8years 于 17-3-2009 12:20 AM 发表
我对资源股不熟识，你有什么介绍？你还没有解释你对大势的看法如何得来。

我认为大势出现了奇怪的现象，有可能是金融股的底部，所以我还想再看看市场的想法如何，我听到市场的声音是很害怕金融 ...

大佬, 我也只是见步行步je, 长期趋势(十年"八年"较易捉摸, 如越南. 中期趋势(三五年)也不难,如经济,産业循环. 短线(1年半載) 就开始要用概率行事了. 超短线(三两个月)就时时五五波(=沒用), 而且须时时大量阅读, 很须心力. 难得会出现六四或七三现象, 就用少量资金博它的概率了.

长期趋势较看实力(基本因素...边个唔知你呵妈是女人!! !#$%^&*). 超短期真的看资金流向, 大户与散户心理,短期政经消息, 传媒吹水(我们要反向), 综合各样资讯, 反复推敲, 最重要还是"猜"大户站在那一边. 希望对你有幫助.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 12:54 AM 编辑 ]

8years

“而且须时时大量阅读, 很须心力. 难得会出现六四或七三现象”
那么calm兄看到或阅读到什么现象而得出有六四或七三现象呢？
calm兄又如何"猜"大户站在那一边呢，依据什么来判断呢？

你开贴时10-2-2009，股市还没有大跌，但是你却可以预测到底部的形成和顶部的可能地方，而且还30%huk下去，必然是看到了其他人看不倒的新闻或事实或经验判断。是什么东西让你在10-2-2009就能判断有六四或七三现象呢？

calm88

第一, 我认为27/Oct/2008还不是底. CDS 太大wok 了, USD600万亿去杠杆化
第二, Chookf 讲房價见底,经济才见曙光
第三, 政府救了又救都还有问题
第四, 金融第二波, 第一波美国, 第二波欧洲. 第一波金融,第二波实体,第一坡经济, 第二波社会,重重叠叠. 股市不会一跌到位,会上落慢慢上移或下挫.
第五, 保护主义如囚徒困境, 大机率会不乐观. 中期(一两年看坏)
第六, technicla chart 下降有节奏, 大户要赚钱, 三两个月就要耒一次上落.如果不赚, 每个月要被鬼佬上司"丟"一下.你说爽不爽?!要不要赚?! chart 也说超卖了. 短线大户in charge, 中长线我们都死了, 所以大户不理.
第七, 八年说, 好多人恐慌, 就反向进场.我buy 這个idea.
第八, 运气
第九, 专心做好一样东西, 全天候贯注一点
第十, 心定, 心靜
第十一, 所有时势的推敲, 要化繁为简, 找最key 的element下判. 假设前提有沒有改变? Key 也是ever changing 的
第十二,要试试了解整个subject 的运作,与参与者, 谁又是key? key 也是永"变"的
第十三, 时时须要information feed, 以作update 判断
第十四, 多与能人做朋友, 接收能人用心说与做的一切, 无论我认为是对是错都接收他. 还有做人不可太吝啬, 快请我吃饭!

...想到再加...

don't wish the job be easier, wish you be better.

谢谢你的提间, 這都是隨心写的, 也可以做个纪录.

专心去看,用心去学与累积. 如8k师博说, 大胆假设, 小心求证. 错了就检讨, 对了就再追踪, 看将來还会发生吗? 证实它是一时风潮或永恆趋势.

希望有启发.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 02:45 AM 编辑 ]

yewsin56

能买便宜货的机会是一件好事来的，
明日马股再大跌的话，起码我敢买。

8years

嗯，
第十一, 所有时势的推敲, 要化繁为简, 找最key 的element下判. 假设前提有沒有改变? Key 也是ever changing 的
第十二,要试试了解整个subject 的运作,与参与者, 谁又是key? key 也是永"变"的
很有启发性，要好好看看。这次你赚的比我多，先你请，下次我赚的比你多时再请你，这可公平呼？

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 12:03 AM 发表
明天我会在13300- 13500 出脱最少一半持股. 另一半再"博" 500 - 1000点 (13500 - 14000). 说明是博, 就只有五五波了. 一不对路, 就做"田雞" - - - - "Yang".... 现在就別买了, 市场又快又狠,兵凶战危, 大势向下, 小心啦! ...

This battle has not end yet. During morning session, HSI proved me wrong. May be you need to spend me le.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 17-3-2009 02:30 PM 编辑 ]