朋友, 还不走,等什么? (KLCI 1016) 14/05/2009

时光隧道

原帖由 Arsenalwenger 于 6-3-2009 02:22 PM 发表

已经是久闻了。
被批：总统没料到，用出口术。结果隔夜掉-4%。

我还以为是当天的新闻来的
左边是它的日期。
原来不是。

谢谢你的提醒。

新闻没有日期的，以后我不要去那个网站了

calm88

Technorati Mary Stokes, Jelena Vukotic and Elisa Parisi-Capone | Feb 28, 2009

The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region is the sick man of emerging markets. While the global crisis means few, if any, bright spots worldwide, the situation in the CEE area is particularly bleak.  After almost a decade of outpacing worldwide growth, the region looks set to contract in 2009, with almost every country either in or on the verge of recession.  The once high-flying Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) look headed for double-digit contractions, while countries relatively less affected by the crisis (i.e. Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia) will have a hard time posting even positive growth.  Meanwhile, Hungary and Latvia’s economies already deteriorated to the point where IMF help was needed late last year.


The CEE’s ill health is primarily driven by two factors – collapsing exports and the drying-up of capital inflows.  Exports were key to the region's economic success, accounting for a significant 80-90% of GDP in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia. By far the biggest market for CEE goods is the Eurozone, which is now in recession.  Meanwhile, the global credit crunch has dried up capital inflows to the region.  An easy flow of credit fueled Eastern Europe’s boom in recent years, but the good times are gone.  According to the Institute of International Finance, net private capital flows to Emerging Europe are projected to fall from an estimated $254 billion in 2008 to $30 billion in 2009.  Whether or not this is formally considered a ‘sudden stop’ of capital, it will necessitate a very painful adjustment process.

Classic Emerging Markets Crisis In The Works?

What is especially worrisome is that the days of easy credit flows were accompanied by rising external imbalances that rival or even exceed the build-up of imbalances in pre-crisis Asia – e.g. current account deficits in Southeast Asia from 1995-97 fell within the 3.0-8.5% of GDP range, while those in CEE were in the double-digits in Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltics in 2008.  As examined in a recent RGE analysis piece, the vulnerabilities in many CEE countries – high foreign currency borrowing, hefty levels of external debt and massive current-account deficits – suggest the classic makings of a capital account crisis a la Asia in the late 1990s.

Spillover Effects To Rest Of World

Like the Asia crisis of 1997-98, a regional crisis in Eastern Europe would have far-reaching effects.  As Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff noted in a recent New York Times article: “There’s a domino effect.  International credit markets are linked, and so a snowballing credit crisis in Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries could cause New York municipal bonds to fall.”  Western Europe looks set to be particularly impacted via its strong trade and financial linkages.  Of particular concern is the strong presence of Western European banks (via subsidiaries) in the CEE, where they hold 60-90% market share depending on the country, which paves the way for contagion.

So is this the making of a cross-border banking crisis?  It could be.  Given the sharp contraction in Eastern Europe’s economies, combined with high foreign currency-denominated lending (particularly in Croatia, Hungary and Romania), weakening currencies and heavy reliance on non-deposit external financing, Eastern Europe’s banks will likely see a large spike in non-performing loans.  Banking systems in the region are likely only as strong as their weakest link – or in this case, weakest country.  That’s because of the ‘common lender’ phenomenon.  As many CEE countries share foreign parent bank(s) in common, this paves the way for problems in just one of these countries to have ripple effects into other CEE countries.  So even a relatively healthy economy/banking system like the Czech Republic’s – with a reasonable loan-to-deposit ratio and scant fx-denominated lending to households – is still vulnerable.

The CEE has borrowed $1.4 trillion from BIS reporting banks abroad and most of it from Western European banks (USD 1.3 trillion).  Austria is far and away the Western European country most heavily exposed to the CEE region (via Austrian-based banks like Raiffeisen and Erste Bank).  These banks’ collective exposure to the region amounts to over 70% of Austria’s GDP.  Notably, however, other Western European countries’ total exposure is far less.  Belgium and Sweden are the next in line after Austria; their lenders’ total exposure to the region amounts to a still significant 20-25% of GDP.  Some fear that parent banks, if they get into trouble, could either fire-sell subsidiaries or simply walk away. Another concern is Europe’s fragmented regulatory system, which means that if a cross-border bank needs to be unwound, the process is likely to be extremely messy.

Policymakers In Virtual Straitjackets

CEE policymakers have fairly limited tools to cope with the crisis.  Fiscal policy is constrained by the fact that belt-tightening is required to restore order to the balance of payments in some countries (i.e. Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, and the Baltics), while euro adoption ambitions limit the fiscal response in others (i.e. Poland).  Meanwhile, monetary policy easing is constrained in countries with heavy foreign currency-denominated lending, like Hungary and Romania, where a weakening of the local currency could potentially trigger defaults, thereby impacting financial stability.  In others (i.e. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania), monetary policy is not an available tool due to fixed exchange rates.

Due to limited fiscal and monetary policy options, other CEE countries might need to follow in the footsteps of Latvia and Hungary and call on IMF help.  In a nod to the difficult situation of many CEE countries, EU leaders called last week for IMF resources to be doubled to $500 billion to help head off new problems in crisis-hit countries.  It remains to be seen, however, whether IMF help will be enough to return financial stability to the region.

In a recent research report, economists from Danske Bank point to the increasing concern of spill-back from problems in Eastern Europe to the Eurozone.  Polish authorities and commentators, such as Wolfgang Munchau, recently made the point that East European countries should be given a shortcut to join the euro and access to its safety and stability net.  However, current problems faced by some EMU members show that EMU membership alone is no panacea.  Moreover, previous experience shows that currency pegs can be double-edged swords that often end in capitulation.  The current test case for the entire region is Latvia, whose currency peg looks increasingly fragile even after its IMF-led EUR 7.5 billion bailout package.  Devaluation with its ripple effects through the region would be devastating for the mostly foreign-owned banks in the region.

Unlike EMU member countries, EU countries that have not yet adopted the euro have access to the 'medium-term financial assistance' facility worth EUR 25 billion, of which EUR 10 billion in loans have already been extended to Latvia and Hungary. Additional assistance to the region will have to come from a revamped IMF, as noted before and the EBRD is also providing funds to banks in the region. Despite a 20% funding boost, however, its resources are much smaller.

Spotlight On Ukraine

European banks are also exposed to vulnerable economies outside of the EU.  Russia is the second largest borrower from EU banks and it has over $100 billion of debt that must be financed this year. However, it is the Ukraine that may pose the biggest contagion risk, particularly if the next tranche of IMF funding continues to be deferred.  Austrian, French, Swedish, Italian and German banks have a collective exposure of around EUR 30 billion to the Ukraine.  Ukraine has $46 billion in foreign debt obligations falling due in 2009 and the swift plunge of the Hyrvnia has boosted the cost of servicing these debts even as corporate debts are on the rise.  Ukraine’s political divisions and economic contraction of at least 6% suggest further sovereign and corporate ratings downgrades are on the way.  Ukraine may thus be forced to make the budget cuts required by the IMF, but it is also reaching out to the U.S., Russia, China, Japan and the EU for additional funds.

calm88

Government Collapse in Latvia: More Yet To Come?

金融-->经济-->社会-->政府-->军事-->世界

猜猜是什么?

準備好你的cash,见KLCI到恐慌性抛售就扫货啦, 也要买些黄金做保险.

what's next 还沒出场, 要找best timing. 找最好的入市时间区间

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 25-2-2009 10:21 AM 编辑 ]


The series of riots that erupted in Bulgaria, Lithuania and Latvia in January, followed by Latvia’s government collapse last week, raise concerns that Eastern European countries may experience a period of deep destabilization and social strife as the economic crisis deepens and unemployment rates soar. The recent wave of popular unrest was not isolated to Eastern Europe.  Ireland, Iceland, France, the UK and Greece also experienced street protests, but many Eastern European governments seem more vulnerable as they have limited policy options to address the crisis and little or no room for fiscal stimulus due to budgetary or financing constrains.  Deeply unpopular austerity measures including slashed public wages, tax hikes and curbs on social spending will keep fanning public discontent in the Baltic states, Hungary and Romania.  Dissatisfaction linked to the economic woes will be amplified in the countries where governments have been weakened by high-profile corruption and fraud scandals (Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria).  The political forces most likely to benefit from public disaffection are those running on the populist platforms, which could disrupt efforts to battle the effects of the economic crisis.  Latvia could be a case in point, as there are growing concerns that the coming election campaign might suspend the fiscal austerity measures required by the IMF bail-out package.  Two other political hotspots that are at risk of early elections are Romania and Estonia, while Bulgarian national elections are due in mid-2009.

EU’s Free Market Rules Under Pressure: Eastern Disillusionment and Western Protectionism

Overall, a big rise in support for populist and radical parties in the region could put social, structural and environmental reforms on hold in the region and could even call into question the economic and political model Eastern European countries have followed since the 1990s.  The eastern EU member states’ decisions to open their markets and move toward greater integration with the EU are now being second-guessed by some.  Moreover, the protectionist measures implemented in some western EU states in support of their automotive and financial sectors are threatening the EU’s single market rules and could particularly hurt Eastern European economies.  Meanwhile, a backlash over immigrant labor is likely.  With the 2009 unemployment rate set to rise to 8.75% in the EU27, according to the European Commission, member states are tempted to interpret the laws in a way more favorable to their nationals.  This suggests that migration trends will reverse and the eastward flow of remittances will dwindle.  The return of Eastern European migrant workers, in turn, may add to social discontent in their countries of origin.

Growing East/West Divide in the EU?

The financial crisis has exacerbated the East/West divide within the EU illustrated by the persistent bickering between the Czech Republic, the current holder of the EU presidency and France over trade and protectionist bail out packages that hurt automotive industries in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.  So far, the EU has helped economically troubled Latvia, Poland and Hungary with swap lines and loans and called for the resources of the IMF to double in order to help the countries facing the crisis.  Yet, there have been a growing number of calls for EU-led coordinated support to the Eastern European economies (recently echoed by the World Bank).  If there is a perceived lack of help, the financial crisis could deepen the divide between so called “Old Europe” and “New Europe” and bring structural changes to the political landscape in Eastern Europe, such as strengthening the nationalist, euro-skeptic voices in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Poland) and the pro-Russian parties in the Baltic states.



This is called quality article.





[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 8-3-2009 12:41 PM 编辑 ]

calm88

Not a V                           
Is a U
May be L
Merrill Lynch said is W

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 7-3-2009 01:00 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

金融-->产业-->市场(股汇楼商)-->就业-->社会-->国家-->世界

hdcyng

原帖由 calm88 于 6-3-2009 03:53 PM 发表
By Ah Hong2166

Market Predictions (Sorry, i only know English)
Dear Friends,

        
        We are approaching the 3rd phase of the bear market, quarterly report of companies are disappointi ...

U got wrong info !!!  Wrong history KLSE movement in 1998 !!!
History low is Jan 98 not Aug 98!!!

calm88

原帖由 hdcyng 于 7-3-2009 02:08 AM 发表



U got wrong info !!!  Wrong history KLSE movement in 1998 !!!
History low is Jan 98 not Aug 98!!!

1998 年9月1日 262.70 见底

stanleymyc

谢谢分享，马股向下跌是注定的。

看来，投资美股最值得。

calm88

长期我较看好中越股市(有优股,有时势), 美欧次之(有很多优股, 时不予我), 马股再次之(少优股,只能于特定之时大举投入). 其他沒时间研究,不能尽录.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 8-3-2009 01:18 PM 编辑 ]

amat_abu

可 以 介 紹 一 些马股 值 得 進 場 的 嗎？ 當 然 不 要 太 貴 的。

相思泪

原帖由 amat_abu 于 7-3-2009 04:09 PM 发表
可 以 介 紹 一 些马股 值 得 進 場 的 嗎？ 當 然 不 要 太 貴 的。

我也想知道，先谢谢各位前辈。。。。

calm88

原帖由 amat_abu 于 7-3-2009 04:09 PM 发表
可 以 介 紹 一 些马股 值 得 進 場 的 嗎？ 當 然 不 要 太 貴 的。

现在还不是买股长期投资的时后, 所以就少谈了.再等等吧!

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 6-3-2009 12:13 PM 发表
猜: 三,四月反弹(60%机率), 四六月大插又见底(30%机率)
目标: 这个帖,点击率会爆升20% (from 6095 to 7300)...

08年10月尾见第一个底. 4月后,3月初或3月中见第二个底.

3月中开始反弹3到4个月至6月中开始大调整, 预测见第三个底. 这个底可能就是大底了.

说明是猜, 就別太认真啦. 但我是根据这个思路下注(看到这些词句, 就知道是投机啦.投资人就再等多3个月也不迟)

六月有沒有底? 是不是大底? 到4,5月再看也不迟.这份路线图还会依据新进的资讯,再做推演.


如果我错了, 3月就见这轮熊市大底, 那么6月买股投资5年还不错呢!!

如果6月见大底, 到时才买就肥啦!!

如果我又错了, 3月是底6月也是底, 但还有更大的底在下半年或2010年头三月. 这肯定是世界将会发生"大件事"

如:世界性(洲际连锁性崩溃)的经济危机深化, 金融危机深化, 大国或多个小国政治或社会出现大麻烦动蕩, 美元大贬或大战(希望不会发生).

当然,这些"大件事"的发生, 会有一段醞釀期的,我们凡人希望可以捕捉到蛛丝马迹, 还望神憐我世人,助人催吉避凶, 保护家人,朋友与财富.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 9-3-2009 10:12 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

原帖由 calm88 于 11-2-2009 07:42 AM 发表
新年过后,股市海啸要耒了... 到处浮现了讯号,準備好你的现金,为未来五年创造财富

新年前,将所有的股票卖掉吧.2月1日致3月初"可能"会有第二波的大插,让有準備者可大举买入马股与港股...第一注投资!!
说"可能"是因 ...
时机点:
新年后,股價会大挫,这一浪谷底或发生于2月15日至3月初. 将來其他谷底的发生, 还须要更多观察与推断将来时局发展.

谢谢大家赏睑, 点击率超过预期. 美中不足之处, 有一部份要靠女人与八年的底部填数.


其实很想写一篇专谈汇率的文章. 汇率对世界的影响超出我们的想象. 汇率is the key.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 8-3-2009 06:07 PM 编辑 ]

calm88

目标: 这个帖,点击率会爆升20% (from 6095 to 7300)
[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 6-3-2009 12:25 PM 编辑 ]

原创] 底部: 最吸引人也最危险的地方   1 2 3 4 5 6 .. 9  calm88
10-2-2009  216 / 7343 8-3-2009 01:17 PM
by calm88

达标!

king1892

原帖由 calm88 于 8-3-2009 01:10 PM 发表

当然,这些"大件事"的发生, 会有一段蕴亮(不会写,又找不到liang)期的

醞釀期

釀niang第四聲或ㄋ一ㄤˋ

8years

很有水准的推算，我也是这么认为。

calm88

原帖由 king1892 于 8-3-2009 08:33 PM 发表


醞釀期

釀niang第四聲或ㄋ一ㄤˋ

多谢King Sir 指点. 改佐啦!! King Sir 永远是咱们的良師益友.
.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 9-3-2009 11:15 AM 编辑 ]

calm88

HSI Trend started to reverse. See the bottom Liao.
Check tonight DJ. If DJ is up, the reversal is confirmed.
Can buy Hong Kong share liao for this round of rebound

calm88

金價由USD1000回调, 现见USD893, 再等到USD800左右, 又要準備进场lu. 其实黄金今年目标價USD1200 和USD1800.
2010年和2011年就很大wok 了.

今晚美股造好上300点, 见6850. Confirmed 转势. 明天恒生上300点开市12000, 再call. Call 完了就等最佳转势时机, 最后最灿烂的煙花可能就在5月中到6月中出现了. 到时小心啦.

[ 本帖最后由 calm88 于 11-3-2009 01:02 AM 编辑 ]