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【IOICORP 交流专区】 IOI 老板一年前的致词
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发表于 4-11-2008 05:54 PM
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Palm oil price unlikely to rise in 2 years
# Aseambankers slashes profit estimates for Sime Darby and IOI Corp
# Rating on Malaysia's plantation industry cut to 'neutral'THE price of palm oil, which has plunged 64per cent from its Marchrecord, is unlikely to advance for two years asa possible globalrecession risks cutting demand for commodities,Aseambankers MalaysiaBhd forecast.
The edible oil, used in cooking and as a biofuel, will probablyaverageRM1,600 (US$452) a ton in 2009 and 2010, Ong Chee Ting, ananalyst atAseambankers in Kuala Lumpur, wrote in a report today. Palmoil is nowtrading at about that level.
The global financial crisis has pushed the US closer torecession,reducing international trade and demand for goods from crudeto foodexports. The forecast for steady palm oil prices suggestsefforts bythe government in Malaysia, the world's second-largest growerof thecommodity, to boost prices may fail.
"The risk of an extended global recession has clearly emerged,"Ongsaid. "While we remain enthusiastic over its long-term prospects,theplantation sector's intermediate-term returns have become lessjuicy."
Malaysia's government said October 30 itplans to cutdown some palm oil plantations in an effort to trimproduction and helpreverse tumbling prices. Indonesia, the worldbiggest maker of palmoil, and Thailand are taking similar steps toreduce domestic output ofcommodities including rubber.
Aseambankers also cut its earnings forecasts for producersincludingSime Darby Bhd and IOI Corp, Malaysia's two largest palm oilmakers, forthe next three years. Ong slashed his profit estimatesbetween 11 percent and 96 per cent.
'Demand Destruction'
"Demand destruction is the key concern for 2009," Ong said, cuttinghisrating on Malaysia's plantation industry to "neutral" from"tacticaloverweight."
In the worst case, the price of palm oil may plunge to less thanRM1,200a ton, should crude oil drop to less than US$50 a barrel,Aseambankerssaid.
Crude oil, trading at US$63.25, has tumbled about 57 per cent fromarecord US$147.27 a barrel in July. Still, palm oil probably won'tstayat such a low level for more than four months, according to thereport.
Before today's cut, Aseambankers previous forecast for palm oil prices in 2009 and 2010 was RM2,500 a ton. - Bloomberg |
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发表于 4-11-2008 05:56 PM
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| Notice of Shares Buy Back - Immediate Announcement | | Reference No CU-081104-359E4 |
| Company Name | : | IOI CORPORATION BERHAD | | Stock Name | : | IOICORP | | Date Announced | : | 04/11/2008 |
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发表于 4-11-2008 06:07 PM
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| Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965 | | Reference No CU-081104-5EA61 |
| Company Name | : | IOI CORPORATION BERHAD | | Stock Name | : | IOICORP | | Date Announced | : | 04/11/2008 |
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| Name | : | Employees Provident Fund Board | | Address | : | Tingkat 19, Bangunan KWSP
Jalan Raja Laut, 50350 Kuala Lumpur |
| | NRIC/Passport No/Company No. |
| : | EPF ACT 1991 | | Nationality/Country of incorporation |
| : | Malaysia | Descriptions
(Class & nominal value) |
| : | | Ordinary shares of RM0.10 each |
| Name & address
of registered
holder |
| : | Employees Provident Fund Board
Tingkat 19, Bangunan KWSP
Jalan Raja Laut, 50350 Kuala Lumpur
(Purchase of 2,200,000 shares and 5,250,000 shares from the open marketon 28 October 2008 and 29 October 2008 respectively. Following theabove purchases, currently held 709,229,500 shares.)
AmInvestment Management Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 3,267,875 shares.)
BNP Paribas Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 564,000 shares.)
CIMB-Principal Asset Management Sdn Bhd
(Purchase of 546,600 shares on 29 October 2008. Following the above purchase, currently held 11,107,400 shares.)
Credit Agricole Asset Management (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 1,222,000 shares.)
Hwang DBS Investment Management Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 1,198,200 shares.)
Mayban Investment Management Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 2,000,000 shares.)
Nomura Asset Management (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 3,558,900 shares.)
PHEIM Asset Management Sdn Bhd
(Purchase of 100,000 shares and 350,000 shares on 28 October 2008 and29 October 2008 respectively. Following the above purchases, currentlyheld 10,450,000 shares.)
RHB Asset Management Sdn Bhd
(There is no change in shareholding. Currently held 2,060,000 shares.) |
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| Details of changes | Type of transaction | Date of change | No of securities | Price Transacted (RM) | Acquired | 28/10/2008 | 2,300,000 |
| Acquired | 29/10/2008 | 6,146,600 |
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Circumstances
by reason of which change has occurred |
| : | i) Direct interest
Purchase of shares from the open market
ii) Indirect interest
Purchase of shares managed by Portfolio Manager |
| | : | | | Direct (units) | : | 709,229,500 | | Direct (%) | : | 12.02 | | Indirect/deemed interest (units) |
| : | 35,428,375 | | Indirect/deemed interest (%) |
| : | 0.6 | | Total no of securities after change |
| : | 744,657,875 | | Date of notice | : | 29/10/2008 |
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发表于 4-11-2008 07:29 PM
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发表于 4-11-2008 07:35 PM
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原帖由 傻人最有傻福 于 4-11-2008 05:54 PM 发表 
Palm oil price unlikely to rise in 2 years
谢谢你的新闻，我三楼半的套房不懂要退房还是住下去 ?
这种新闻, 很明显, 下一轮炒作要开始了... 不懂我有讲错吗.. |
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发表于 4-11-2008 08:18 PM
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经济新闻 -
本地库存料写新高 2008/11/04 19:18:09
●南洋商报
此外，当原棕油产量在10月及11月飙至新高之际，本地的存量可能创下历史新高，于11月达210万至220万公吨，局限了短期上涨的可能。
同时，邻国印尼也将原棕油出口税的征税水平从每公吨550美元，提高至700美元。
联昌国际投资分析员说：“这项举措能提高印尼原棕油产品的竞争力。”
分析员认为，这项措施对印尼业者的影响不大，却可能导致国际原棕油价格滑落，大马业者将因此受影响。 |
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发表于 4-11-2008 08:37 PM
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发表于 4-11-2008 08:47 PM
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原帖由 弹煮 于 4-11-2008 07:29 PM 发表 
证明了基金经理们开始要进攻了，叫你们贱卖给它。
IOI很厉害哦，便宜的时候不停回购自家股票 |
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发表于 4-11-2008 08:50 PM
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回复 1987# Orochimaru 的帖子
我以为share buyback成为了IOI每日任务 |
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发表于 4-11-2008 09:14 PM
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发表于 4-11-2008 09:20 PM
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回复 1989# chengyk 的帖子
偶正想要找个地方问这个问题。
原来答案是“东邪” 
他好久没上来了，不知换鸟什么名字咧 这个傻人最有傻福会是他吗？ |
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发表于 4-11-2008 11:45 PM
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人家说天黑要收衣，
可是有种雨叫对流雨，
它偏偏是在大大大太阳时下的。
这几天的股市就象出大太阳，
虽然我晒在3楼半的衣服还没干，
不过还是先收回来。
对流雨来的快去的也快。
我想可能可以换2楼的套房来住。 |
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发表于 5-11-2008 12:07 AM
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IOI明天会去到3.50  |
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发表于 5-11-2008 12:12 AM
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希望能去到RM4.50，
我把我最后的套房也LELONG出去。
不过如果回到2楼也不要紧，
我等着接。 |
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发表于 5-11-2008 12:15 AM
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回复 1993# u346018 的帖子
你就想咯 你以为大户是傻的?
明天有可能是最后的晚餐 |
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发表于 5-11-2008 12:22 AM
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那就把套房改成养老院，
住住下就惯了。 |
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发表于 5-11-2008 12:26 AM
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发表于 5-11-2008 01:18 AM
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发表于 5-11-2008 07:09 AM
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等不及了～ 今天一开市，起码3.20了吧？ |
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发表于 5-11-2008 07:46 AM
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花旗：盈利下修至3.9%‧大馬企業明年進賬更少
（吉隆坡）全球金融危機對本地經濟造成一定程度的衝擊，大馬企業在明年的盈利表現，料比預期進一步緊縮。
花旗集團指出，企業盈利仍潛在進一步下跌空間，預料明年會縮小至3.9%，花旗集團較早前估計公司盈利可取得6%增長率，今年9月，花旗集團宣稱大馬股市“很糟”，政治形勢不明朗是其中一個隱憂。
花旗報告指出，從新加坡及香港投資者提供的意見，他們的專注在“大馬是否正走入顯著下跌期，在過去的6個月，當政治局勢佔據多數人的目光時，經濟數據鮮少成為焦點。
下調明年成長預測至3.5%
大馬政府在8月預測，2009年經濟可取得5.4%成長率，不過今日（週二，11月4日）宣佈下調成長預測至3.5%，至同時公佈系列防患於未然的振興經濟措施，以刺激內需，維持經濟成長。
瑞銀的報告指出，明年經濟成長可能停滯不前、甚至介於零水平，成為11年來最糟的一次，主要是商品價格下跌，而且，全球金融危機打擊出口領域的表現。
價值吸引不足
儘管與區域國家比較，大馬股市今年下跌38%，是東南亞市場表現最好的一個，可是，其賬面值卻接近2001年的1.4倍，與其他市場比較，尚嫌吸引力不足。亞洲其他股市 雖然跌幅大，不過，交易水平相對也較低廉。
花旗指出：“從區域市場的角度來看，大馬市場的價值吸引力有些不足。”
種植金融股盈利走緩
衝擊綜指盈利成長
大馬分析員也有同感，基於種植和金融股盈利展望大幅放緩，衝擊大馬綜合指數明年獲利預測，亞歐美研究大砍綜指盈利成長至3%，較早前的預測為6%。
2009年市股仍不樂觀，全球經濟放緩和信貸緊縮夾攻，亞歐美研究對馬股最壞預測，綜指可能跌至810點水平。然而，不排除全球股市年杪回升可能性，隨著利息成本和信貸價差逐漸緩和，充沛現金的機構投資者料重返股市。
外資持股大幅減少
限制綜指進一步下跌
亞歐美研究列出推動年杪回彈因素，分別是馬幣年杪收復部份失地、政治局面趨向穩定，及原棕油可能暫時回升，都一一支持綜指暫穩跌勢一陣子。
此外，馬股的外資持股比例大幅減少，至目前介於18至19%，也限制綜指進一步下跌。
亞歐美近期在新加坡促銷大馬資金市場，獲得正面反應，表示隨政治紛爭結束，外資或回返馬股。
種植業收入展望少32%
亞歐美以2009年原棕油平均價降至1600令吉估算，種植業收入展望將少了32%，此外，貸款成長率降至介於4至5%，也打擊銀行也明年盈利下滑6.6%。
2009年的綜指盈利成長，很大程度取決於原棕油走勢，加上經濟放緩對銀行業貸款成長和資產素質影響。估計，最快綜指盈利至2010年才會回升7.7%。
選擇大資本抗跌保本股
10月爆發的全球信貸市場大海嘯，嚴重打擊大馬股市，這波跌潮損失慘重公司，包括高負債水平、高外資持股比例、經濟週期影響，出口導向、原產品及業務依賴發展中國家的公司
種植業公司損失最大
在眾多崩跌領域當中，種植業公司的損失遙遙領先，IOI集團（IOICORP,1961,主板種植組）股價受害明顯，其餘包括亞洲航空（AIRASIA,5099,主板貿服組）、雲頂（GENTING,3182,主板貿服組）和科恩馬集團（KNM,7164,主板工業產品組）
亞歐美認為，大膽的投資者可投資受重創領域，如種植和銀行，目前小型銀行股已接近估值底線。
尋求抗跌保本的投資者應反其道而行，選擇大資本、符合回教教義、高流通量、低風險和低外資持股比例，又提供持續盈利和周息率的公司。
亞歐美研究指，出這類抗跌保本的公司遍布於收費大道、獨立發電廠商、消費和選擇性的博彩和銀行股。
亞歐美研究心目中最抗跌的大資本股，分別為南北大道（PLUS,5052,主板貿服組）、馬電訊（TM,4863,主板貿服組）英美煙草（BAT,4162,主板消費品組）和國家能源（TENAGA,5347,主板貿服組）。
次一級的抗跌股包括成功多多（BJTOTO,1562,主板貿服組）、大眾銀行（PBBANK,1295,主板金融組）、丹絨（TANJONG,2267,主板貿服組）和名勝世界（RESORTS,4715,主板貿服組）。
亞歐美研究將環城大道（LITRAK,6645,主板基建計劃組）、大馬機場和純消費公司如肯德基（KFC,3492,主板貿服組）和健力士英格（GUINESS,3255,主板消費品組）列為充滿活力的中資本股。
http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/17748 |
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