Malaysia ringgit hits 3-yr low on outflows, then rebounds on debt sale
* Malaysian bonds of $2.9 bln due on Wednesday * 7-year govt bond sale attracts investors * Ringgit cuts losses after new bond issuance By Jongwoo Cheon and Umesh Desai SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, July 30 (Reuters) - The Malaysian ringgit hit a fresh three-year low early Tuesday due to redemption of maturing bonds, but it turned higher on strong demand for new government bonds, which should help the currency strengthen further Early in the day, the ringgit lost 0.3 percent to 3.2365 per dollar, its weakest since July 1, 2010, pressured by bond outflows. The local currency touched 2.5520 to the Singapore dollar, the weakest since July 1998. Pushing down the ringgit were concerns on outflows, as 9.2 billion ringgit ($2.9 billion) worth of government bonds are due on Wednesday, according to the central bank data. However, the Malaysian currency turned slightly higher, to 3.2230 as of 0605 GMT, compared with Monday's close of 3.2260, as agent banks of the central bank were spotted selling dollars and some investors covered short positions, traders said. The country sold 4.5 billion ringgit in 7-year government bonds at an average yield of 3.889 percent with the bid-to-cover ratio at 1.91 times. The ratio was higher than the 1.73 at an auction earlier this month for bonds maturing in 2023, even though the yield for the shorter maturity was higher. "This is similar to recent U.S. Treasury auctions as well," said Melody Lim, strategist at OSK-DMG in Singapore. "Rates are on a normalising trend and the higher yields have indeed attracted more investors." There were indications that holders of the bonds maturing this week put money back into the government bonds but at the same time demanded a higher yield. Last week, the bid-to-cover ratio at a U.S. Treasury auction of seven-year notes was the lowest since May 2009. U.S. Treasury yields have increased to the higher end of their recent range on fears the Fed may start to spell out plans to reduce buying. Most expect the Fed to start tapering in September. One trader said he believes that "feared outflows from maturity of 9.24 billion ringgit of Malaysian Government Securities should be mostly done by now." "We expect to see some relief rally in MGS with fears of a poor auction proven unfounded," the trader added. The 5-year swaps eased by 5 basis points for the day so far to 3.75/71 last from 3.80/75 in the morning.
REBOUND AFTER REDEMPTION? The ringgit may well rebound once the maturity repatriation is completed, traders and analysts said. "There is some probability that dollar/ringgit may fall after the big maturity of the government bond," said Saktiandi Supaat, head of FX research for Maybank in Singapore Supaat said the pair may head to as low as 3.160, although it depends on how the maturity pans out. A senior Malaysian bank trader in Kuala Lumpur also expected the ringgit to strengthen above 3.2200, saying that some overseas speculators built up bearish positions in the currency to cover bond outflows. The ringgit has lost 2.0 percent against the dollar this month, becoming the second-worst performing emerging Asian currency after the Indonesian rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters data. Still, it is premature to expect the Malaysian currency and bonds to stabilise at a time of caution over the Federal Reserve's planned reduction in monetary stimulus and weaker domestic economic fundamentals, some analysts said. Earlier this month, Malaysia's central bank warned that a weak global environment may hurt growth. "Even though we had some inflows, there is an enough risk to see outflows in the fourth quarter again as we will see Fed exit talk," said Yuna Park, a currency and bond analyst at Dongbu Securities in Seoul. "A high foreign holdings is very risky as it will increase volatility." With Malaysian debt attracting sizable inflows between April and May, foreign holdings stood around 32 percent of outstanding debt and 34 percent of reserves based on the latest data, according to a BNP Paribas note. (Additional reporting by Yantoultra Ngui in KUALA LUMPUR; Editing by Richard Borsuk)
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