股价真的这么重要吗？

calvink

说到股价的执著，
就拿xx37来说好了。xx37本身的业绩本来就是非常的好。
但是，可惜，吸引来了好多的炒家。跟着价钱也啃着跟着上上下下，总共4轮

hahaha..每次，当炒家丢票时，小弟总是爱queue 在 $1.2-$1.3之间。原因，这是xx37的 06-07年的最低点。
imagine,当xx37 up until $2时， 这= 56%-67% 哦

alfredfx

i just reply you part of it.

ur study as well. the full part you can read out yourself. fundamental chg.

why analyst keep revise target price every 3-4 days when market hot ?

chukh1

原帖由 alfredfx 于 22-3-2007 11:18 PM 发表
i just reply you part of it.

ur study as well. the full part you can read out yourself. fundamental chg.

why analyst keep revise target price every 3-4 days when market hot ?

哈哈..我知道答案..
大佬, 可以说吗?哈哈哈!

calvink

soros 的理论能够行的通。
原因：
1)he understand the rules of games
2)he has lots of cash..billions of dollars...说的难听一点，拥有最多资金的人，就能够操纵整个市场。

但是，soros最后还是在HK lost 了。原因，也在于最多资金的人赢了。中国用了15billions 来护持整个市场。
soros没择了，只好乖乖的退出。

chukh1

原帖由 calvink 于 22-3-2007 11:27 PM 发表
soros 的理论能够行的通。
原因：
1)he understand the rules of games
2)he has lots of cash..billions of dollars...说的难听一点，拥有最多资金的人，就能够操纵整个市场。

但是，soros最后还是 ...

他的资金不会多啦..如果要跟全球资金来比较..
只是他打战的策略太好了..搞到其他的势力也心痒痒..
他是败在做东西去到太尽了..
最后,被人发现到他的粮草在哪里..被人烧掉了!哈哈!

alfredfx

soros spot the weakness and create the battle field.
His theory ->

secondbrother

jackphang兄，老板的野心，也就是 fisher 15个要点之三 attitude of management （如果没有记错）。还ok 拉...也不需要特别强调。

关于 1.20 和 1.21 的问题也可以在 fisher 的 1/8 或 1/4 找得到。

calvink兄，之前你不是说读太多书不好的吗？嘻！嘻！你说大跌的那时，
有朋友来电问： 一小时跌了100点 怎样好？？
我回问他：那你投资了那么久有没有看过一小时跌了100点？？
他说：没有！
我：那你等什么！！！

那天多数人都用 stop lose （一班人是用10％），那里知道一早没有买家！！ 哈。bad call！！

jackphang

股价并不是唯一判断是否能够买入卖出的条件之一。这个道理就有如公司管理层能不能够带来更多带给股东们财富的机会。从这里，我们可以看到，如果长期持有YTL,PBBANK,IOI等等，未来的30年必定有个小成。这里，我们可以让所谓的passive investor利用股灾来时才来购入此类型股票，来赚取未来长期的盈利。

一直以来，我们都是看着有关财政报告，然后预测未来一两年的公司走势，然后设定本身的价格。过了价格后，就售出了股票。很可能在售出了股票后，由于管理层有了新的计划，结果当新闻公布出来时，我们又被逼以更高价购入，因为其目标价格又被调高了。这是我从马星、Digi等等公司得出的结论。一直以股价来做唯一的买入卖出的指标，只会让你沉沦在赚取差价的短暂快乐当中。

jackphang

以下是我从CFA学来的判断股价的真正价值的方法，简单介绍，毕竟我也是初学者，望大家一起参与讨论。

DDM Model -> DPS / (r -g) ,我们又称Gorden Growth Model,也就是说这模式是用来以股息处于(一定要的回酬率减持续成长率)。适合稳定的公司，比如蓝筹股。条件：r 一定要大于g，g一定是持续的，一定要有DPS.

Multi stage DDM Model -> 一些快速成长的公司一定会经历过不同的阶段，从快速成长然后到成熟阶段。我们可以利用分阶段的方式来让DPS折价回来，最后算出现在的股价值多少。弱点：很难预测有关的阶段的成长率。

DCF Model -> gto28有介绍过有关DCF的算法,也就说把说有的Free Cash FLow来折价回来。弱点：很难去算出未来的Free Cash Flow.而且FCF的定义不一样：有些喜欢用EBITDA,一些使用FCFE, 一些使用FCFF, 一些使用EBIT.

Residual Income Model ->与其算Accounting Profit,不如去算Economic Profit.把机会成本也拿来加进Accounting里，得到最后的盈利。这个必须有精确的Economic Cost的算法。

最简单的股价法：Market Multiplier

跟同行比较，然后得出的比较。以下有些比较法：
1。Price/Leading EPS
2。Price/Leading Sales
3. Price/Leading Cash Flow
4. Price/Leading Book Value
5. Expected DPS/ Price

为什么要用Leading?因为我们必须预测未来的股价值多少，而不是过去的股价应该值多少。

来吧，大家一起来做功课。

i am disagree about it

for me all the stock are bad unless it starting going up. if thecompany is earning money but the stock price is going down. That meanit is useless stock this is because you are lossing money if you buyit.

sambora

原帖由 stockmaster 于 15-4-2007 08:08 AM 发表
i am disagree about it

for me all the stock are bad unless it starting going up. if thecompany is earning money but the stock price is going down. That meanit is useless stock this is because  ...

没有人可以预知那只股将起，如果可以世界首富就是你

Mr.Business

我把这帖save起来了，一共17页，准备慢慢研究。
谢谢jackphang兄与各位网友的种种心得，请继续加油。

calvink

原帖由 stockmaster 于 15-4-2007 08:08 AM 发表
i am disagree about it

for me all the stock are bad unless it starting going up. if thecompany is earning money but the stock price is going down. That meanit is useless stock this is because  ...

Yes , you are right, but the problems is how do you know when is the lowest price??
There is not such things as free lunch. You must know what you are buying and how much it's worth. The valuation is very different to everyone. So, it's depend a lot on your judgement and study.

You can peg it down to book value but a good business will never sell at book value and it's normally trade at multiple of current earnings. The only yardstick that you can use is to compare with the peers business that are trading on the stock exchange around the world.

The only things for price appreciation is what Second brothers said before "Change of Appraisal". This happen when the circle of finance community notice the potential of growing business and profit in the future 5 years or less.

Example:
Digi & KNM

calvink

原帖由 stockmaster 于 15-4-2007 08:08 AM 发表i am disagree about itfor me all the stock are bad unless it starting going up. if thecompany is earning money but the stock price is going down. That meanit is useless stock this is because  ...

Yes , you are right, but the problems is how do you know when is the lowest price??There is not such things as free lunch. You must know what you are buying and how much it's worth. The valuation is very different to everyone. So, it's depend a lot on your judgement and study.You can peg it down to book value but a good business will never sell at book value and it's normally trade at multiple of current earnings. The only yardstick that you can use is to compare with the peers business that are trading on the stock exchange around the world.The only things for price appreciation is what Second brothers said before "Change of Appraisal". This happen when the circle of finance community notice the potential of growing business and profit in the future 5 years or less.Exampleigi & KNM

mysinvestor

精华精华，浮上来，２００９需要你。