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发表于 16-9-2009 04:46 AM
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有点难一个个去PM...
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Expert Advice Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2009 11:55 pm
EUR/USD
Euro's retreat after rising to fresh 2009 high of 1.4654 yesterday suggests consolidation below there may take place and minor correction to support at 1.4515 is likely. However, renewed buying interest may emerge around 1.4477 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4191 to 1.4654) and support at 1.4448 (previous resistance now support) should hold, bringing another rally. Above said resistance may extend towards 1.4688 (50% projection of 1.2457-1.4339 measuring from 1.3747). However, upside should be limited to 1.4738/40 (approx. 50% projection of 1.4191 to 1.4636 measuring from 1.4515) and 1.4763 (1.618 times projection of 1.4045 to 1.4407 measuring from 1.4177) should hold, bringing retreat later.
Look to buy euro on dips, adventurous can venture short on such rise to 1.4738/40. Below 1.4448 (previous resistance turned support) would risk correction to 1.4407 (another previous resistance) but reckon 1.4360/65 should limit downside.
STRATEGY: Buy at 1.4480, Target: 1.4660, Stop: 1.4420 O.C.O. Sell at 1.4740, Target: 1.4580, Stop: 1.4800
GBP/USD
The British pound ran in to heavy offers after intra-day recovery to 1.6661 and has retreated sharply on active cross-selling in sterling versus euro together with the release of better-than-expected U.S. data. Correction of recent upmove to 1.6428 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6113 to 1.6742) is likely. However, only below 1.6400 would risk stronger retracement towards 1.6351.
In view of this, exit long position entered at 1.6460 and stand aside in the meantime. On the upside, recovery is likely to be limited to 1.6522 (previous support turned resistance) and 1.6588 should hold and bring another decline later.
STRATEGY: Exit long entered at 1.6460 and stand aside
USD/CHF
Dollar’s rebound after intra-day fall to fresh 2009 low of 1.0322 suggests further consolidation above this level may take place and correction to 1.0466 is likely. However, renewed selling interest may emerge well below resistance at 1.0529 (previous support turned resistance) and bring another decline. Below said support may extend marginally to 1.0265/68 (1.236 times projection of 1.0885 to 1.0529 measuring from 1.0708). However, 1.0245 (50% projection of 1.0700 to 1.0339 measuring from 1.0425) may attract buying interest and bring rebound later.
In view of the above analysis, whilst still looking to sell dollar on recovery, the more adventurous may venture buying on such decline to 1.0245 as 1.0202 (61.8% projection) should hold, bringing another correction. Above resistance at 1.0555 (previous support turned resistance) would signal a temporary is formed and risk correction towards 1.0590/00.
STRATEGY: Sell at 1.0500, Target: 1.0300, Stop: 1.0560 O.C.O Buy at 1.0245, Target: 1.0440, Stop: 1.0180
USD/JPY
Dollar’s rebound after falling to 90.18 earlier suggests further consolidation may take place and mild upside bias remains for correction of recent decline towards 92.11 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 93.31 to 90.18). However, sharp rise beyond resistance at 92.60 is unlikely and the greenback should falter below 93.02.
In view of this, prefer to buy dollar on dips for such a rebound. Only below psychological support at 90.00 would risk one more fall towards 89.44-50 (approx. 1.236 times projection of 95.07 to 91.94 measuring from 93.31) before prospect of another recovery.
STRATEGY: Buy at 90.60, Target: 92.10, Stop: 90.00 |
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