EPF的收益会比股票高，你的有任何意见？

heamq

对，
保守的假设每年有3%的股息，
连本带利就已经会有7万多了。

gowin

EPF better than stock market


It never gives negative returns


IN general, most people have the impression that the money placed in the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) always generates lower returns compared with the returns from their own investments.

In this article, we will look into the returns from EPF versus returns from the KL Composite Index (KLCI). We assume that investors are able to generate their own returns equivalent to the returns from the KLCI.

Based on our 23 years of data compilation, it is generally true that the average returns generated from EPF are lower than KLCI returns. From 1986 to 2008, the average return of EPF was 6.7%, 2.3 percentage points lower than the average return of 9% from the KLCI (see table).

http://biz.thestar.com.my/archives/2008/12/3/business/b_09epf_table.jpg

However, most people do not understand the risks they need to undertake when they invest by themselves. The standard deviation of EPF is only 1.5%, 22.2 percentage points lower than the standard deviation of 23.7% from the KLCI.


We use standard deviation to measure risks. Most investors only look at how to generate the extra 2.3 percentage point returns, forgetting that they need to undertake a much higher risk to generate the extra returns. The extra return is unable to compensate for the extra risks that investors need to take.

Let’s assume one investor invested RM10,000 in the EPF and the KLCI respectively at the beginning of 1986. Logically with the average KLCI return higher than the average EPF return, the fund in KLCI should be higher than the fund in EPF in most periods.

However, as the table shows, by the end of 2008 (we assume that EPF will only be able to generate a return of 4.25%), the fund placed in KLCI would have reached RM40,000 versus RM43,946 generated by EPF, a shortfall of RM3,946.

The main reason behind this shortfall is that the EPF never gives negative returns whereas the KLCI generated negative returns eight times over the past 23 years.


There is a market saying that out of 10 people who invest in the stock market, only one can make money, the others will lose money. Warren Buffett says if you want to win, you don’t lose. Hence, we disagree with some people who advise others not to place money in EPF because it generates lower returns.

In most periods, the money in EPF gets lower return than the money placed in KLCI. However, the main reason for the lower fund value in KLCI by the end of 2008 was the market crash during 1998.

The money in KLCI dropped by 47.1% to RM18,105 in 1998 from RM34,246 in 1997 whereas the money placed in EPF increased further to RM26,594 in 1998 from RM24,924 in 1997. After 1998, it took nine years for KLCI to catch up with the fund value in EPF.

Last year the fund value in KLCI (RM46,000) finally surpassed the fund value in EPF (RM42,154). However, as a result of the recent market crashes, we are anticipating the fund value in EPF to overtake KLCI again this year.

It will take a few years from now for the KLCI to catch up with the EPF again. Unless investors are constantly monitoring their own investments and are able to avoid most of the negative returns, we think it is safer to put money in the EPF rather than withdraw it for their own investments.


Thestar

我想要倾听所有资历深的大大，各种的想法。。。

[ 本帖最后由 gowin 于 4-12-2008 02:18 PM 编辑 ]

江湖

EPF 一个永远不会有赎回潮的基金

akyong

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和母熊比，放银行都比他强啦！
EPF的收入如果没有从股市来那还可以说有得比。不然，只能说你比EPF笨，不能从股市里拿钱。
如果EPF在股市里倒贴，那么人民可要去上吊了。如50亿在股市里倒贴了，到时国政就是谋杀人民的凶手。

heamq

该篇文章的作者做了错误的计算比较，
如果你用1万块在1986年头开始根据KLCI成分股投资，
你的答案应该是7万多，而不是像作者所说的4万，
所以是比EPF的4万4千好多多，

至于原因是什么，就暂时卖个关子吧！

ee33

dividend的关系？

gowin

感激heamq大大点起对于这个文章的盲点。

mysinvestor

作者认为我们愚蠢
通货膨胀吃完