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中央银行在和通货紧缩进行殊死斗争.
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这是我继"其实我对股市长期看涨"的续文.
http://cforum2.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=1400611&highlight=
这里我用对比的方式来表达,津巴布维和美国到底有什么共同点.
第一篇:
我听人说,"在市场上人们普遍觉得货币短缺的时候,是不可能会造成通货膨胀的."
津巴布维:
Zimbabwe introduces $50 billion note
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/africa/01/10/zimbawe.currency/index.html
HARARE, Zimbabwe (CNN) -- Zimbabwe's central bank willintroduce a $50 billion note -- enough to buy just two loaves of bread-- as a way of fighting cash shortages amid spiraling inflation. 
Zimbabwe's dollar is virtually worthless, with foreign currency now being used to purchase basic items. The country's acting finance minister, Patrick Chinamasa, made the announcement in a government gazette released Saturday.
Although Chinamasa did not give the date on which the $50 billion and new $20 billion notes would come into circulation, an official at theReserve Bank of Zimbabwe said the notes would be distributed to all banks by the end of Monday.
Zimbabweis grappling with hyperinflation now officially estimated at 231million percent, and its currency is fast losing its value. As ofFriday, one U.S. dollar was trading at around ZW$25 billion.
When the government issued a $10 billion note just three weeks ago, it bought 20 loaves of bread. That note now can purchase less than half ofone loaf.
Realizing the worthlessness of the currency, the RBZ has allowed most goods and services to be charged in foreign currency.As a result, grocery purchases, government hospital bills, propertysales, rent, vegetables and even mobile phone recharge cards are nowpaid for in foreign currency, as the worthless Zimbabwe dollar virtually ceases to be legal tender.
Once a regional economicmodel, Zimbabwe is in the throes of an economic crisis, with unemployment running at more than 80 percent and many families unable to afford a square meal. President Robert Mugabe's critics blame his policies for the economic meltdown, but he says the West is sabotaging his efforts.
In order to attract foreign currency, Zimbabwe's central bank has,since September, licensed at least 1,000 shops to sell goods in foreign currency. All mobile phone service providers are now licensed to accept foreign exchange for airtime and other services.
John Robertson, an economist in Zimbabwe, said he's puzzled by the introduction of the $50 billion and $20 billion notes.
"I am not really sure what these notes would be for," he said. "No one now accepts the local currency. It is a waste of resources to print Zimbabwe dollar notes now. Who accepts a currency that loses value by almost 100 percent daily?"
In August, the RBZ slashed ten zeros from the currency. But the zeroes have bounced back with more vigor.
A power-sharing deal between Mugabe andopposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai signed in September, and brokered by former South African leader Thabo Mbeki, raised hopes of halting Zimbabwe's plunge into economic destruction.
But the pact has stalled over the allocation of key cabinet ministries,with Tsvangirai accusing Mugabe of grabbing all key posts such as defense, home affairs, local government, foreign affairs and finance.
美国:
US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank pump an extra $82bn into banking system
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3864287.ece
Gary Duncan, Economics EditorThe US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank united yesterday to opena new front in their battle to quell the persistent money market strains that are fuelling the global credit crunch.
The Fed and the ECB lined up with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to mount a third phase of joint operations to curb the transatlantic credit squeeze endangering the world economy. The central banks said that they would again raise sharply, by as much as $82 billion (£42 billion), the amount of funds they were pumping into the US and European banking systems in their effort to rein in elevated market interest rates.
The latest concerted action by the central banks comes as the continuing hoarding of funds by institutions in Europe and America has kept interest rates for lending between commercial banks high – despite an easing of conditions in broader credit markets. Steep money market rates are aggravating the squeeze on lending to companies and households, jeopardising economic prospects.
Yesterday the Fed increased by half, to $150 billion, the value of its Term Auction Facility, a monthly operation set up in December that makes one-month loans to US banks against collateral including devalued mortgage-backed securities.
Background
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Background
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Since March the Fed has offered US banks $50 billion in a funding auction under the facility every two weeks, but this will be lifted to $75 billion.The Fed is also increasing a currency swap deal with the ECB to $50 billion,from $30 billion, while a similar swap with the Swiss central bank willdouble in value to $12 billion. Both facilities will be kept in place untilat least January.
The enhanced currency swap plan comes amid concerns by the Fed and theEuropean central banks that European banks are exposed to a severe shortage of dollar funds, thus exacerbating stresses in dollar money markets.
The ECB said that it would raise the value of 28-day loans of dollar funds it offers to $25 billion each fortnight – up from irregular $10 billion to $15billion amounts previously.
The Fed also widened the range of assets it was prepared to accept from US investment banks as backing for lending under another emergency scheme it created in March after the near-collapse of Bear Stearns. The Fed will now take AAA-rated asset-backed securities as collateral for these loans.
The Bank of England did not take part in the concerted action yesterday but did announce that it would increase the monthly funding cushion it provides to Britain’s banks under its regular monthly money market operations. The Bank said that from May 8 it would raise the ceiling on the reserves that UK banks can hold with it to £2.5 billion or 5 per cent of “eligible liabilities” of each bank, whichever was the greater.
The ceiling had previously been set at £1 billion, or 2 per cent.
[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 24-3-2009 10:00 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 09:08 PM
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"拯救大型企业,长远来看,是有益而无害的,我们绝对不能容许AIG, Citigroup倒闭.非洲国家之所以那么穷,完全是因为他们政府腐败,实施放任不管的政策."
Zimbabwe: Central bank governor warns of parastatal collapse Central bank governor Gideon Gono has warned President Robert Mugabe the prevailing state of collapse in key parastatals is compounding the persistent economic crisis. This is despite the trillions doled out to failing state companies over the past two years.
By Independent (Zimbabwe), by Dumisani Muleya | 01.22.2006
Gono,battling with a crumbling economy, said in a report to Mugabe the situation in parastatals and local authorities was appalling and sabotaging prospects of economic recovery. He said this was largely because the enterprises' "tentacles are far-reaching and have aneconomy-wide impact".
Government, which has strong interventionist policies, holds sway across a vast swathe of the economy through the parastatals. Local authorities also play a major role in the economy.
In the report dated November 11 2005 and titled Operational Challenges of Parastatals, Gono said state companies such as the National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ), Air Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (Zesa), Zimbabwe Iron & Steel Company(Zisco), Rural Electrification Agency, District Development Fund (DDF),Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe (Caaz), Zimbabwe Broadcasting Holdings (ZBH), Zimbabwe United Passenger Company (Zupco), Cold Storage Company (CSC) and Hwange Colliery were in a precarious state.
He said other parastatals, the Zimbabwe NationalWater Authority (Zinwa), Industrial Development Corporation (IDC),Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), and Agricultural & Rural DevelopmentAuthority (Arda) were in almost the same predicament.
Gono said despite pouring in trillions to revive the parastatals under the Productive Sector Facility and the Parastatal Re-orientation Programme which started in February last year, the situation remains dire.
Common problems besetting the parastatals includeweak corporate governance, poor financial management systems, an entrenched lethargic business culture, incompetent management, huge debts, poor pricing structures and capacity under utilisation, he said.
On the NRZ, Gono said the company faces "major capacity constraints that have compromised the national transportsystem". He said the NRZ had received $125,2 billion by November last year but remained in crisis.
"The challenges at the parastatal include deterioration in the rail infrastructure characterised by in excess of140 speed restrictions, vandalised communication equipment and dilapidated yard facilities," he said.
"Out of a total of 8 098 wagons only 3 467 are working vis-a-vis a market requirement of 8 629. Out of a total of 179locomotives only 66 are working and of these 15 are underpowered.Current capacity utilisation is therefore 33%." The NRZ has a debt o fUS$13,8 million.
Gono said Air Zimbabwe was still locked in crisis despite getting $580,7 billion covering foreign currency liabilities,working capital, and funds to service its overdraft facilities. He saidthe national airline was dogged by problems emanating from servicing unprofitable routes, unsustainable overheads, bad management and huge debts. Air Zimbabwe has a US$14 million debt and $100 billion owing.
Zesa got $235,7 billion but was bedevilled by a poor tariff structure, lack of investment and rehabilitation of electricity generation capacity, a high wage bill, unsustainable operational losses($86 billion for October 2005 and a projected $8 trillion by last December), and corporate structural problems. The company has a foreign debt of US$330 million.
Source: http://www.theindependent.co.zw/ 
美国:
Bernanke: AIG failure would have been 'devastating' to financial system Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke re-affirmed the Fed's and the U.S. Treasury's previous decisions to bail out the banking sector and AIG, and underscored that an AIG failure would have been 'devastating' for theU.S. and global financial systems, C-SPAN reports.
In response to questions from the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke reiterated that wholesale nationalization of the U.S. banking system would not be necessary and that is not the government's plan. However,at the same time, Bernanke added that the banking bailout may need more money beyond the $700 billion Congress has already approved.
Duringthe past 18 months, the Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled to $1.9 trillion as it has sought to stabilize key financial institutions,such as Citigroup (C) and AIG (AIG).
Further,Bernanke provided his clearest statement to-date regarding the implications of a potential AIG failure. "A failure of AIG would havebeen devastating for the U.S. financial system. Nothing makes me angrier than AIG's circumstance...And I share your anger, Senator,"Bernanke said, C-SPAN reported.
Still, Bernanke remains optimistic regarding the ultimate effectiveness of the federal government's interventions. "I think we will eventually get results, we will eventually stabilize the financial system...and the economy will return to growth," Bernanke said.
AIG may need $300-500 billion more?
One economist told DailyFinance Tuesday that effectiveness may hinge onmore, assertive action by the Fed with respect to AIG. Economist DavidH. Wang, whose specializations include credit analysis, said he believes AIG "may need $300-500 billion more in Fed assistance,depending on the extensiveness of its operations."
"AIG is intertwined in the global financial system with a myriad of credit default swap products, derivatives, and other financial products," Wang said. "Based on what I've reviewed about their operations so far, I would be very surprised if AIG did not need at least another $200billion more in assistance, and most likely more."
Still, Wangexpressed full-confidence in Bernanke's strategy to-date. "Bernanke has data you or I can not review," Wang said. "While one can critique minor tactics, I do not doubt for a minute that had the Fed not intervened with AIG, and AIG failed, the consequences for the U.S. and global financial systems would have been devastating. An AIG failure would have made the fall-out from the Lehman Brothers failure look like a picnic."
Monetary / Economic Analysis: Intestimony, Bernanke also said there were limits on how high the U.S.national debt could go, but did not specify a percent of GDP ceiling.The U.S. is trending toward a national debt equaling 60% of U.S. GDP --high but not unprecedented, he said, and the ultimate arbiter of theceiling would be the international financial community, and it's very hard to know when they would balk.
The good news there: That gives the U.S. more 'resource room-leeway' to add debt, if needed, for financial system stabilization. To be sure, no one wants to add more debt, but if economist Wang is correct about AIG's health, the U.S. --and other governments around the world, for that matter - - have no other choice.
[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 24-3-2009 09:12 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 09:22 PM
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"美国为了国家利益,而拯救他的银行,带来的好处是肯定会多过坏出的."
津巴布维:
From the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (boldface theirs):
As Monetary Authorities, we have been humbled and have taken heart in the realization that some leading Central Banks, including those in the USA and the UK, are now not just talking of, but also actually implementing flexible and pragmatic central bank support programmes where these are deemed necessary in their National interests.
That is precisely the path that we began over 4 years ago in pursuit of our own national interest and we have not wavered on that critical path despite the untold misunderstanding, vilification and demonization wehave endured from across the political divide.
Yet there are telling examples of the path we have...For instance, when the USA economy was recently confronted by the devastating effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the Iraq war, their CentralBank stepped in and injected life-boat schemes in the form of billionsof dollars that were printed and pumped into the American economy.
....the USA economy confronted a severe mortgage crisis... The USA Central Bank again responded by injecting over US$160 billion betweenDecember, 2007 and March, 2008.... leading central banks in the globaleconomy are bailing out troubled economic sectors to achieve macroeconomic and financial stability....the Bank of England...providing a £50 billion lifeline to the UK’s banking sector.
Here in Zimbabwe we had our near-bank failures a few years ago and weresponded by providing the affected Banks with the Troubled Bank Fund(TBF) for which we were heavily criticized even by some multi-lateral institutions who today are silent when the Central Banks of UK and USA are going the same way and doing the same thing under very similar circumstances thereby continuing the unfortunate hypocrisy that what’s good for goose is not good for the gander....
As Monetary Authorities, we commend those of our peers,the world over, who have now seen the light on the need for the adoption of flexible and practical interventions and support to key sectors of the economy when faced with unusual circumstances.
美国:
Troubled Assets Relief Program
[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 24-3-2009 09:24 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 09:28 PM
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到底是"非洲国家和美国的经济差距,在于他们由不同素质的人执行,和他们的思想观念的不同."
还是"英雄惜英雄."
Zimbabwe's central bank chief: "Bush offered me top World Bank job"
http://www.topnews.in/zimbabwes-central-bank-chief-bush-offered-me-top-world-bank-job-297307
Harare - Zimbabwe's controversial central bank governor Gideon Gono claimed that outgoing United States president George W Bush had endorsed a proposal to give him a senior position in the World Bank, state media reported Wednesday.
Governor Gideon Gono also said that the purported offer was approved by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and that it was conveyed to him by James McGee, the outspoken US ambassador to Zimbabwe, the government-controlled Herald newspaper reported.
It said Gono made the remarks on Monday at a private launch of abook Gono has written, in which the claims are described in detail.
President Robert Mugabe recently reappointed Gono as governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe for a second five-year term, despite Gono's proclivity for printing money to fill the hole in government coffersbeing held largely responsible for stratospheric inflation of at least 231 million per cent.
The virtually worthless Zimbabwe dollar has also plunged 30 millionper cent since August when he redenominated the money by striking off10 zeroes. The International Monetary Fund has described the ReserveBank as "bankrupt."
Gono claimed the offer was made by a World Bank senior vicepresident "with the full blessing of none other than George W. Bushhimself, and the US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice." Comment was not immediately available from the US embassy in Harare.
This occurred at the time that "I was being dragged to the UNto be put on the sanctions list," he said. Gono had written to theWorld Bank to ask "how the bank could offer him a job when he was on its targeted sanctions list."
He claimed the bank replied that it would remove him from the list, and see what to do with his friends already on the sanctions list.
The United Nations has no sanctions list against Zimbabwe. The only attempt yet by the UN Security Council, in June this year, to condemn the country for its human rights record, was vetoed by Russia andChina.
The United States and the European Union have imposed targeted sanctions against members of President Robert Mugabe's ruling clique,including Gono.
Gono, like Mugabe, repeatedly claims that these sanctions are responsible for Zimbabwe's economic and humanitarian ruin.
On Wednesday, a government minister claimed that Western governments had been "contaminating it (Zimbabwe) with cholera and anthrax... to justify military intervention."
Gono described his book, "Zimbabwe's Casino Economy:Extraordinary Measures for Extraordinary Challenges," as "shedding light on the deep philosophical drivers that shaped the orientation conduct of the RBZ's monetary policy programme under my watch for the last five years." (dpa)
[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 24-3-2009 09:29 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 09:36 PM
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From now on, think of the US as a bigger Zimbabwe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finan ... igger-Zimbabwe.html
"I've been condemned by traditional economists who say printing money drives inflation," observed Gideon Gono last month. "But once the IMF advised America to print money, I decided God was on my side and had come to vindicate me."
For readers who may not know, Mr Gono is governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe. He'll be feeling particularly pious this weekend – as the mighty US has, indeed, just started printing money. We're supposed to call it "quantitative easing", I know. But if Mr Gono can tell it as it is, why can't we?
......
Such unprecedented policies are needed, we are told, to "fight deflation". As regular readers know, I think deflation is largely a myth – an alibi for wildly expansionary fiscal and monetary policy concocted by Western governments and their media lackeys.
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
2008 211.080 211.693 213.528 214.823 216.632 218.815 219.964 219.086 218.783 216.573 212.425 210.228 215.303 0.1 3.8
2009 211.143 212.193
从2009年2月,即使官方的cpi都是212,比2008年头高.(2008年开年是个严重通货膨胀的时期.)
这个叫做有迫切的义务和通货紧缩决斗? |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 09:48 PM
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Zimbabwe中央银行行长专访.
"没有商业银行的multiplier effect,货币就不可能被放大,就不可能会有恶性通货膨胀.""面对非常危机,只有非常手段才能解决到问题(至少不会增加问题)"
‘It Can’t Be Any Worse’
The head of Zimbabwe's reserve bank explains the policies that have led to hyperinflation.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/181221
Alternatively heralded as an incompetent fool and a tragic hero, Gideon Gono has been at the center of Zimbabwe's economic decline since he was appointed governor of the country'sReserve Bank in 2003. A ZANU-PF insider and by many accounts president Robert Mugabe's right-hand man, Gono generally keeps himself shielded from the foreignpress, fortifying himself in luxury hotels or his 47-bedroom mansion in Harare. Gono is known in some circles as "Mr. Inflation" because he has overseen the printing of billions of dollars in worthless notes, most recently Zimbabwe's trillion-dollar bill, to be launched later this year. But he is more than a central banker. He is thought to have had a hand in many of Zimbabwe's controversial government ventures, from rewarding party loyalists with land to downplaying the magnitude of the choleraepidemic. In an exclusive interview with NEWSWEEK's Alaina Varvaloucas and Jerry Guo in Johannesburg, Gono addresses his critics in the international community. He blames most of his country's woes on Western economic sanctions, though Western officials maintain that thetravel and business bans directed at top members of the Mugabe regime cannot undermine an the economy. Gono sees himself as a rags to riches success story with a Puritan work ethic: he says he doesn't drink, only sleeps 4 hours a night, runs daily and has a blood pressure of 120/60.Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: A lot of people have blamed you for Zimbabwe's economic collapse.
GONO: TheWest wants you to think it's because of mismanagement. But sanctions have had quite a devastating effect on the country. I cannot think ofany genocide that is worse that that. By their very nature, sanctions are supposed to induce fear. It's like terrorism. It's callous.
But the United States maintains that the sanctions are targeted toward top members of Mugabe's regime, like yourself.
Theydo have an impact [on me] but it is the degree of suffering that theworld is missing. It's not like I'm an international persona non grata;I often travel. Quite contrary to what the world has been made tobelieve, the sanctions are not really hitting the middle to high-income bracket. The impact of sanctions is to deny the country access to credit facilities, and then we are unable to import fuel. Then the poor suffer.
Now the global economy is also going through a credit crunch. What do you make of that?
Isit back and see the world today crying over the recent credit crunch,becoming hysterical about something which has not even lasted for ayear, and I have been living with it for 10 years. My country has had to go for the past decade without credit.
Your critics blame your monetary policies for Zimbabwe's economic problems.
I'vebeen condemned by traditional economists who said that printing moneyis responsible for inflation. Out of the necessity to exist, to ensuremy people survive, I had to find myself printing money. I found myself doing extraordinary things that aren't in the textbooks. Then the IMF asked the U.S. to please print money. I began to see the whole world now in a mode of practicing what they have been saying I should not. I decided that God had been on my side and had come to vindicate me.
Do you feel optimistic about Barack Obama's incoming administration? I don't want anyone to put unnecessary pressure on Obama and hold him to supernatural powers. He's coming into a situation that is untenable already. By the very same standards, I don't like anybody saying if President Mugabe was to go tomorrow, the fortunes of Zimbabweans will change for the better, as if he is personally liable for our situation.
A lot of people do hold Mugabe personally liable. Wouldn't sanctions be lifted, at the very least, if Mugabe lets go of power?
[Laughs]. The sanctions will not be lifted because Mugabe leaves office. It is not about Mugabe.
How so?
Unless they are engaging in some colossal intellectual honesty, they will not admit the sanctions are political. There are other countries with serious human rights shortfalls, even war, but you find [Western] investors going there.
Would you do anything differently if you had the last five years to do over again?
Thereare certain things, policies with the benefit of hindsight, where we could've managed our affairs better. I don't want to leave you with an impression that Gono or Mugabe are direct descendants of St. John or St. Paul. We are human.
What would you have changed?
Thereis a very high level of indiscipline and corruption in the Zimbabwean economy. I would enact tougher legislation that would ensure offenders would never do it again. I would also deal differently with the critics of our land-reform programs, and invest more in educating them. We were out witted in the propaganda war. We didn't go out there to explain to the world how our war of liberation came about in the first place.
Is it time to change course then?
Onlya fool does not change course when it is necessary. Because economicsis not an exact science, you want to be able to be relevant. The onlyconstant is change and adaptation.
In November you shut down Zimbabwe's stock exchange. Will you open it again?
The stockbrokers were creating a money supply that wasn't there. I printed Z$1.5 quadrillion, but the exchange was operating with Z$100sextillion. So I said, "Who is doing my job?" Unless there is morediscipline and honor, the exchange will stay closed. I can't be bothered. I don't know when it'll open. It's a free market, a business which must be allowed to succeed or fail.
So will 2009 be a year of improvement or disaster?
It'sgot to be a good year. What keeps me bright and looking forward toevery day is that it can't be any worse. And those who have studied the history of economies know that we are down, but that the only thingthat can happen is we will move up. That is a certainty.
What about the cholera epidemic? Many have called the government's handling of the health crisis a crime.
Thecholera is under control. I've been personally involved in ensuring that we minimize and finally eliminate the disease. Every year there isa cholera outbreak in southern Africa; the epicenter of the disease just happened to be in Zimbabwe this year.
Do you view your term as a success?
It'sa mystery to many how I have survived. I am modestly credited with thesurvival strategy of my country. The issue is if you want to break Zimbabwe and want it to fall, just deal with one man. You deal with Gideon Gono.
That sounds a bit egotistical.
Iowe a lot of my character and who I am today from a humble background.I was poor. I got my start making tea and keeping house. That is when Ideveloped my own philosophy of life. Don't look down on anybody. I still lay claim that I am the best tea maker in the world. Of cleaning floors and toilets I take pride. I'm a normal guy: I miss going to the supermarket. One would like more freedom.
Do you have constant security?
It'selaborate. It's an occupational hazard. If you ask Bernanke orGreenspan, it's the same, but it just differs in intensity. If youraise the interest rate you'll be friends of people who have access tomoney. If you lower the interest rate, you'll be the darling ofborrowers, but pensioners will curse you to hell. It's never about popularity. At all times you are definitely hurting some people in the economy.
Many say you profit off the poverty of others.
That is simply not true.
.........
美国:
Bernanke May Buy Treasuries After Gilt Yields Fall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=af81EoUv7m24&refer=home
Bernanke and the Fed led the way last year in taking unconventional steps to aid the economy by supporting the commercial-paper market and moving to buy mortgage-related debt.
[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 24-3-2009 09:55 PM 编辑 ] |
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楼主 |
发表于 24-3-2009 10:10 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 6-6-2009 12:50 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 6-6-2009 12:55 PM
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上面的文章，充分的证明了美国目前的货币政策，是和几年前津巴布韦的货币政策完全一样。
我相信不少人都懂因果报应这种东西。
不过，对于货币理论这种需要智商140以上才能明白的理论，很多人的因果知识就用不上来了。 |
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发表于 6-6-2009 12:59 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 6-6-2009 01:03 PM
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发表于 6-6-2009 01:19 PM
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原帖由 hoollly 于 6-6-2009 01:03 PM 发表 
近来有两个流行。
去美元化和人民币国际化
高層之人
中層之人
下層之人
這三種人最快被定死的是那一層之人? |
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发表于 6-6-2009 01:21 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 6-6-2009 01:59 PM
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原帖由 khokhokho 于 6-6-2009 01:19 PM 发表 
高層之人
中層之人
下層之人
這三種人最快被定死的是那一層之人?
我估计是中产阶级，因为中产阶级离开直接生产最远，说穷不穷，说富不富。如果一起掉下来，生存能力恐怕比下层之人还要差。 |
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发表于 6-6-2009 03:43 PM
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发表于 6-6-2009 11:35 PM
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回复 11# hoollly 的帖子
hoollly兄，你好。
请教一些问题：
1。知道中国和蛮多国家currency swaps; 中国自己也弄跨境贸易
人民币结算试点。。你认为规模足够吗？
2。commodities的交易平台，不用美元结算的有些什么commodities,什么平台？
有没有可能减少以美元结算？好像看到越来越多commodities platform在进行着。。
3。那些区域货币(gulf currency, 南美洲，欧元区)。。会不会成功？
4。汇率市场的干预，需要用到美元。。
这方面有什么办法吗？这可能比较是个问题。 |
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发表于 6-6-2009 11:44 PM
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有一个很奇怪的现象。。
一些网友说hoollly兄老是看跌股市。。(甚至说这让他们错过这次涨潮)
但hoollly兄其实观点是“对股市是长线看涨的”。。印钱，通货膨胀。。
真是奇怪。。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 7-6-2009 12:04 AM
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原帖由 flyingfish 于 6-6-2009 11:35 PM 发表
hoollly兄，你好。
请教一些问题：
1。知道中国和蛮多国家currency swaps; 中国自己也弄跨境贸易
人民币结算试点。。你认为规模足够吗？
2。commodities的交易平台，不用美元结算的有些什么commodities,什么平 ...
客观来说，美国联邦储备局的举动是在摧毁美元。中国的举动客观来说是协助美国摧毁美元。
金融家们需要一个世界货币，美元是世界货币的最大障碍。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 7-6-2009 12:05 AM
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原帖由 flyingfish 于 6-6-2009 11:44 PM 发表
有一个很奇怪的现象。。
一些网友说hoollly兄老是看跌股市。。(甚至说这让他们错过这次涨潮)
但hoollly兄其实观点是“对股市是长线看涨的”。。印钱，通货膨胀。。
真是奇怪。。
任何价格运动都没有直线运动，而股市运动则是锯齿状进行的。
短期来讲，股市将会再度激烈下跌，中期来讲，波动性非常大，长期来讲，股市是会激烈上涨的。
这中间可没有任何冲突和矛盾。 |
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发表于 7-6-2009 09:49 AM
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回复 19# hoollly 的帖子
hoollly兄说的是“没有冲突和矛盾”。。
但短期，中期，长期其实可以提前/延后发生。。各人定义也不同。
而一些看的人选择只看到你短期的观点。
我想是因为这样吧。。 |
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