★ 风----险 ★

ytlcorp

先声明，网上讨论纯粹针对事件而不是针对某人。
至于其他网友是赞成还是反驳，那是他们的事，也没有兴趣知道.
除了此外，至于"他"真正功力及财富是名不虚传还是名副不实，本人连一点兴趣知道也没有.
总而言之，网上讨论只是表发个人意见(赞成还是反驳)。当然反驳别人的理论必须有人理由支持. 一直来有话直说，也不须假客气....

Kenger

原帖由 ytlcorp 于 3-10-2005 04:33 PM 发表
先声明，网上讨论纯粹针对事件而不是针对某人。

你确实真的敢这样讲。。

原帖由 ytlcorp 于 21-9-2005 06:17 PM 发表
先看这里所谓偶像的投资原则根本是不伦不类投资／投机者.
有资格称为投资者吗？

原帖由 ytlcorp 于 21-9-2005 09:13 PM 发表
但是这里的人以为用别方法－ CAGR算法就可以算出个人每年平均投资回酬率.
以为战胜国外投资大师的投资组合回酬率，就沾沾自喜。

不过这是你品行的问题，本人连一点兴趣知道也没有。

二哥，
你敢承认错误，值得敬佩。之前还以为你也是贬低别人来提高自己的人。期待你更多的分享。

葉孤一座城

原帖由 Kenger 于 3-10-2005 01:20 PM 发表
同样的，他也只是提供一种看法。他只是自己试过可行才来这里吃力不讨好的跟大家分享。有必要用＇妖言惑众＇这样的字眼吗？或许你们也可以换另一个角度看东西。大家尊敬他是因为他无私的分享和修养，不是因为他投资 ...

果然功力深厚，短短几句就让人原形毕露。

高人不露相，拜服！

secondbrother

我认同应该尊重其他人，所以我收回那句话。

我根本不许要踩低别人来提高自己。我自己有几多斤两，我自己很清楚。我也没有必要向其他人证明什么。

发表不同的看法不是等于踩低别人，没有理由的反驳才是。

之前，我说了 PETER LYNCH，COLD EYE，I－CAPITAL......
我是否＂踩低＂他们？？？ 我对他们的方法有所保留，并不是＂踩低＂他们。

guazing

我认为ytl兄与二哥所谈的确能使我有所警惕，虽不至于使我改变乐观的看法，但却让我明白知识的浩瀚，我所知道的确可能只有冰山的一角。很赞同ytl兄所说的这句话：
大家深信投资也是一门艺术缘故，还在学习中。
我们只有在虚心求知的心态下不断学习才可趋向成熟。

guazing

口角是非等事我不善于处理，但我知道"一边手掌拍不响"。
只要说话过得了自己，过得了别人。我不在乎别人说什么！
但如我的确曾说过不当的话，我会毫不犹豫的认错。

如我发现别人无意间说了我不喜欢听的话，我很快会忘掉。我的想法是：
不要生气，为什么要用别人所犯的过错来惩罚自己呢？

ytlcorp

最近看到一章文章关于如何从股市中赚取USD两百万在短短18个月内。
(English version), 原本资金是USD25，000.
这是活活的例子,也是不争的事实.
世界上最伟大的投机者就是
★Nicholas Daxxxx★
也是崇拜&尊重投机者之一

原因是从USD25，000变成2，000，000在18个月内！

Daxxxx first became interested in the stock market in 1952 when he received some mining stock in exchange for performing in a Toronto nightclub. The stock trebled, with Darxxx selling near the top. He learned a valuable lesson when the stock subsequently crashed.
Daxxxx realised that knowledge and experience were the keys to success. He read more than 200 books about successful speculators and about the market. At one time he studied for some eight hours per day. When he was at his peak, he read Tape Reading and Market Tactics by Humphrey Neill, and the classic The Battle for Investment Survival by Gerald Loeb, almost every week.
Between 1956 and 1958 Daxxxx turned $25,000 into $2.25 million. He would scan newspapers for a few minutes late at night or early in the morning and select the stocks that met his requirements.
As he travelled he would obtain a copy of the Wall Street Journal and Barrons from the local United States Embassy. He ignored everything he read but the stock prices.
Daxxxx was a true market master, often stating that it was not so much his trading profits which pleased him, but rather the peace of mind he achieved by following the system he developed which best fitted his personality.
The inevitable cynics at the time stated that Darxxx was simply lucky, making his money in a very strong bull market. It is true that the market was very strong, however Daxxxx’s method has been shown to be effective in all market conditions. Strong bull markets can, of course, produce faster profits.
Daxxxx was essentially a technical analyst who used mental charts. He watched price action and reaction and volume on a weekly basis, and also used a nightly telegram from his broker giving him the high, low and close prices of the stocks he was following.
Daxxxx looked for stocks making a big advance on high volume. He bought when he believed that informed buyers were entering the market. When he was dancing in Calcutta, for example, he noticed in Barron’s stock tables that the stock E. L. Bruce was advancing. It moved from a price of 16 to 50 on a volume of 35,000 shares. He bought some at 51 and sold them at 171 some six weeks later.
Essentially his system involved noting a stock making a large volume expansion, which indicated a large increase in demand. If the stock then rose in price, indicating that buyers were in control, he would place an order and set his stop-loss order.
Darxxx would establish a so-called ‘box’, or trading range. If the stock broke below it, his stop-loss order would be hit and he would take a small loss. If the stock broke out on the upside, he would buy more, especially if the breakout was accompanied by large volume. After a breakout Daxxxx would use a trailing stop loss to ensure that he locked in most of his profit, while giving the market sufficient room to make normal retracements without the stop being triggered.








谢谢，guazing兄劝告，铭记于心里

[ 本帖最后由 ytlcorp 于 15-10-2005 09:52 AM 编辑 ]

secondbrother

ytlcorp兄，老实说，我不懂得欣赏这篇文章。投机和投资很难并存，无可否认投机和投资同样可以赚钱。

个人认为投机需要比投资付出双倍的努力才可以赚到钱。我是个懒人，懒人只好用懒人的方法。

ytlcorp

谢谢，secondbrother兄的批评.
也赞成你的观点.
其实我故意贴这张文章主要让投机高手，别为了小小投机成绩，就目中无人。
所谓天外有天，人外有人.


我只是崇拜伟大的投机者， 但从来没有使用他们的投机方法.
特意不要写出那位伟大的投机者名字，以免以后"投机派"会以Nicholas Daxxxx做为反驳的典型理论.
还阅读不少国外投机高手的发表，..
只是不想贴在这里，以免足进投机／技术分析的风气

nsh7222

ytlcorp和二哥都讲的很多好东西，在佳礼我们的确需要多元化的投资方法，二位能做到有深厚的底子功夫却不介意与人分享，值得一赞！！好比某人自称技术分析多好又多好，到头来还是为了sugar大吹大虚，您二人可堪称佳礼技术分析派中的代表，只做，不多讲，好呀！！

guazing

原帖由 ytlcorp 于 15-10-2005 01:51 PM 发表
谢谢，secondbrother兄的批评.
也赞成你的观点.
其实我故意贴这张文章主要让投机高手，别为了小小投机成绩，就目中无人。
所谓天外有天，人外有人.


我只是崇拜伟 ...

"天外有天，人外有人"
同意，同意！ytl 兄所说有理。投机何止一人懂？占为己出更可笑。

我认为"国外投机高手的发表"贴在这里非常适合，因为此楼名为"风－险"。没什么不妥。

ytlcorp

既然有人要求，我就答应.

以下是Nicholas XXXXXXX的技术分析的图表



还有一位投机大师 － XXsse Xexxxxx

XXsse Lxxxxxx, in his office in 1929 just after the "Crash"--when he made over 100 million dollars.
Few investors have made and lost fortunes to equal those of the legendary XXXXX XXXXXXX, a notorious stock market speculator during the first half of the 20th century. He often remarked," Markets are never wrong; opinions are."

Human nature is no different today than it was back in the 1920s and 1930s when XXXXX XXXXX was a  major force on Wall Street. Investors have the same hopes and fears today that they had seventy or eighty years ago. Mr. XXXXXXXX saw repeatedly that the opinions of many of his colleagues were frequently wrong, as the market went on its own merry way in a direction contrary to what they had expected.
In these periods of gyrating markets where it is difficult to know the markets trend, XXXXXXXX remarked over 80 years ago:
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after an investor has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance

Bokks published in 1923 offers timeless wisdom for all investors and traders:

Never act on tips.
Use a system and don't deviate from it.
Never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high.
If a stock doesn't act right don't touch it; because, being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit.
Don't blame the market for your losses.
Never add to a losing position. A losing position means you were wrong.
Stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows you a profit.
Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.
Don't argue with the tape. Do not seek to lure the profit back. Quit while the quitting is good--and cheap.
There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side but the right side.
The speculator's chief enemies are always boredom from within.
A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game.
Bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
Use money management at all times.
Establish your trading plan before the markets open.
Detailed your plan for each trade.
Establish entry and exit points and understand risk reward rations.
Accept small losses as part of the game if you want to win.
Trade markets from the short side.
Stand aside from a position, knowing you have taken a position.
Develop a trading plan for each potential situation you may face.
Do not look at quotes during the day.
Do not concentrate on break-even levels when you are losing.
Don't liquidate a winner to keep a loser.
Develop and maintain an exit plan. Follow this plan with rigid discipline.
Sustain your patience. Big movements take time to develop.  
Don't be overly curious about the rationale behind a move. The key to wealth in trading is simplicity.

guazing

非常感谢ytl 兄的分享，
80年前已经有那么精辟的理论，不错！
并非全都适用在现今大马市场。但却是投机技巧的不二基本功。我认为不论基本派或技术派皆应该了解这些原理，所谓"知己知彼，百战不＂歹台＂"

secondbrother

很多理论或方法都有本身的短处（short coming)。如果你只了解它的长处就派上用厂，后果不堪设想。最基本的 ROE, 很多人以为会用 ROE 就很了不起，可以找到＂好＂公司。麦青远 （John Mak), 在他的书里大力推荐 ROE 的 concept, 不过他从来不曾说出 ROE 的短处（short coming)。使很多＂麦青远迷＂都长犯下同样的错，这是谁的错.....???????

了解理论或方法长处和短处会对你更有帮助。

guazing

同意！我时常认为"宁愿错过，不可买错"。在考量买进时务必从各角度衡量。二哥曾经说过，基本派与技术派很难并存，但我认为在某程度上两种学术可以并用。如我把投机的对象限制在拥有基本面良好的股项，这样是否会比较安全？只是在可进行投机的时机就会相应减少了，甚至相当难以寻找。当然配合的来时，已不纯属正真投机技术了。

其实我两种学说都只略懂皮毛，只是想多学点理论，不自量献丑，请指教！

ytlcorp

在华尔街投資界里，的确有几位投资／机大师成功把技术分析和基本因素合二为一 （FA ＋ TA）。
根据我所知，其中一位众人所知是William O＇Neil。
这也是无可否认典型的例子,但是个人偏向投资方面.
依我之见，其实他的一部分基本因素来源自成长投资法(Philip A Fisher)添加基本因素条件跟Philip A Fisher概念也不谋而合.
但是在理论上难于履行，面对种种困境.

[ 本帖最后由 ytlcorp 于 16-10-2005 04:25 PM 编辑 ]

XiaoXiaoNiu

Jesse LXXXX was born in South Acton, Massachusetts, in 1877. The son of a farmer, he left school in his early teens, and traveled to Boston where he became a 'board boy' for Paine Webber. His position required him to update stock, bond and commodity prices on their large chalkboard.

As LXXXX recorded the ever-changing prices, he noted that prices often moved in predictable patterns. He soon concluded that the markets could be beaten, and that large sums of money could be made.

At that time LXXXX did not have sufficient money to trade in stocks himself, so he spent his lunch hours in bucket shops, where he could attempt to make money by predicting the direction of selected stocks and commodities. By the age of 15 he had made more than $1,000 - which would be a considerable sum in today's dollars.

Bucket shops were little more than gambling dens. After ignoring a warning to keep away from these establishments by his supervisor at Paine Webber, LXXXX was sacked from his position.

The Boy Plunger was now a full-time trader. Such was his success that he was banned from entering the bucket shops in Boston. He then tried the mid-West and East Coasts, where he made some $50,000. He resorted to disguises and used false names in order to circumvent the bans. In his 20s, Jesse LXXXX moved to New York.

In New York LXXXX commenced his career as one of the greatest stock traders of all time. In 1906 he received a tip to short Union Pacific, and did so in a big way. The stock began to rise, and LXXXX was in trouble. The San Francisco earthquake caused Union Pacific stock to plummet, leaving LXXXX with a $250,000 profit. It also left him with a clear understanding of the dangers of blindly following tips.

In 1907, he gained a reputation as a 'bear raider', trading the short side of the market on a massive scale. It is believed that the powerful J.P. Morgan sent go-betweens to LXXXX to ask him to scale down his activities.

W.D. Gann, in 45 Years in Wall Street (page 117) described LXXXX as "one of the most spectacular traders of his day". Gann stated that LXXXX was an honourable man who "believed in paying debts even after he had been relieved through the courts of bankruptcy".

In fact, LXXXX and many other traders and investors, including Gann himself, once lost their money when the brokerage firm Murray Mitchell and Company failed in 1913. In Gann's words "In 1917 when LXXXX came back and made a fortune, he not only paid back my proportionate part of money which I lost through the Mitchell failure, but paid everyone else". Gann added, "This was an honourable thing to do, and because of LXXXX's honor and honesty, in 1934 when he was broke, I backed him and got other people to raise money and back him. LXXXX came back again and made money".

Gann's one criticism of LXXXX was that LXXXX had only studied how to make money - not how to keep money. In Gann's words "He had the greed and the drive for power, and when he got a large amount of money, he could not trade conservatively. He tried to make the market go his way instead of waiting until the market was ready to follow the natural trend".

LXXXX's success gave him a lifestyle that many could only dream about. The tall, thin blonde speculator bought a 200-foot yacht, the Anita. He dated famous women, including actress Lillian Russell. His trading exploits soon became well known, and people would often comment that someone was "as rich as Jesse LXXXX".

During World War I, LXXXX anticipated that coffee would have a substantial rise in price, and established huge long positions. His profits amounted to millions of dollars, however the coffee contract was voided. The government believed that he was profiteering at wartime. This bankrupted LXXXX for the third time.



using inside information;
concealing his market positions;
cornering stocks; and / or
arranging for misleading, or incorrect, information to be published.
LXXXX became well known for his tactic of waiting until a stock he had bought had risen to the point where he had made substantial paper profits, and then 'confiding' in a journalist from the New York Times, or other influential newspapers, that the stock was a great buy. LXXXX would then unload his massive position, selling into the buying frenzy created by the journalist's article.

At his peak, he owned huge estates in several countries, Rolls Royce cars, and yachts, and was famous for his lavish parties.

He also maintained a secret suite of offices in Fifth Avenue. It was in these offices that LXXXX ran a full-scale brokerage operation, with numerous telephone lines and private telegraph lines. The office featured a full size quote board, updated by his clerks. He also employed a team of research staff. The sole purpose of this office was to facilitate his own trading and investment activities.

In 1933, LXXXX was suffering from depression. After a 26-hour drinking binge, he fell into a police station and told the policemen that he had lost his memory.

Unable to accumulate money at the rate he previously did, LXXXX decided to sell his trading secrets in the form of a book. How to Trade Stocks was published in 1940 in two versions - a leather-bound edition, and an 'any man's' edition. The book failed to capture the trading public's hearts and minds.

Later that year, Jesse LXXXX consumed two drinks in the Sherry-Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. He wrote an eight-page letter to his third wife, saying to her "my life has been a failure".

The man who had affectionately become known as the Boy Plunger, the Great Bear, and the Cotton King, then walked into the hotel's hat-check room, sat in a chair, and shot himself in the head. So ended the life of someone who was arguably the greatest trader of all time. Jesse LXXXX, trader extraordinaire, the man who had made millions, left an estate of less than $10,000.
The New York Times had Jesse LXXXX's epitaph as its editorial:

What good he did, what harm he did, what his life meant to himself and to others - such questions are for the novelist… His passion drove him on… He lived in a time when the speculating he did came to seem like that of boys pinching pennies… He left no clouds of glory behind him, nor any miasma of human misery that he had created… The 'Street' in which he operated is not what it used to be. His death punctuated the end of an era.

後記

Jesse LXXXX 一身傳奇﹐也落得如此下場。

認清自己的弱點﹐可承擔的風險。
不要因小成就﹐夜郎自大。

爭贏了全世界﹐過不了自己﹐騙不了自己。

[ 本帖最后由 XiaoXiaoNiu 于 16-10-2005 10:56 PM 编辑 ]

ytlcorp

小小牛兄，近来好吗？
不见已久，但是投资功力大大提升，真是可嘉可喜.
其实你所提到那位投机大师跟我之前讲好象是一摸一样.

悶蛋

顶一顶,我...

油条

感谢你的一顶，让这帖子升上来。。。

消化中。。。