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楼主 12#
8-6-2026 11:53 PM引用: aidj 发表于 6-6-2026 10:51 AM
黑色星期五 扯上了加息，刚刚看 下半年 利息期货 文风不动
记录下来 台湾媒体 又炒作 今年年底 升息。
Lv.14 14#
10-6-2026 08:52 PM
Now I have all the data I need. Let me build a comprehensive dashboard.Here's the full picture with the actual BLS data now in hand.
**The CPI print confirmed at exactly 4.2% YoY** — matching consensus, which is itself important: no shock relief, no nasty surprise, just a clean confirmation of the hawkish repricing that's been building for weeks.
**What the data actually shows**
The CPI-U rose 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, with the energy index accounting for over 60% of the monthly all-items increase. The critical nuance is the split between headline and core: core CPI rose just 0.2% month-on-month, below the 0.4% seen in April and below forecasts of 0.3% — this matters enormously for the policy debate. BofA framed it precisely: the policy focus will likely be on core PCE implications, especially because it has been running above CPI since last November.
**The rate hike probability landscape**
Before today's print, CME FedWatch showed a 63% probability of a 25bp hike by October 2026, driven by the strong May jobs report (172k payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) and rising energy inflation. By December, odds of a hike are nearly 70% according to CME FedWatch, while investors see an 80%+ chance the FOMC holds steady in June and July.
The soft core reading today (0.2% MoM) is the one number that complicates a clean hawkish narrative. If anything, this print likely keeps the December hike probability in the 63–70% range rather than pushing it materially higher — a 4.2% headline confirmed, but core contained.
**The Warsh wildcard**
Warsh inherited a central bank holding at 3.50–3.75%, an FOMC that produced four dissents at its most recent meeting, and inflation running stubbornly above the 2% target. Warsh's previous FOMC voting record shows he's a monetary hawk — from 2006 to 2011 he repeatedly cautioned against lowering interest rates even as the unemployment rate surged during the financial crisis.
The June 17 meeting itself is almost certainly a hold, but the language in the statement and Warsh's inaugural press conference will tell markets whether the bias has shifted from "patient" to "ready to tighten." Watch specifically for any change to the phrase "in a position to lower rates" — its removal would be the signal that the next move is a hike, not a cut.
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