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发表于 3-11-2016 06:10 AM
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from so many previous case price of the share plunged almost 20% (RM 2.2 to Rm 1.82 today closed )within 3 days without any major announcement from company , we can conclude it probably some people spreads the rumors to the market which affect the investor confident. Again , normal people are not insider or management people , so look at the screen drop endlessly will follow like sheep climb the mountain end up die at the bottom.finally.
Although management had clarify with FGV is listed company and under company act which all the management and decision is made by them to protect the shareholder benefit and no other third party as rumor said government will set up one team to over right the FGV management committee. Again , rumor is true or not we dunno , but one thing is the person who spread the rumor had acheived their objective which cause this share ride like roller coaster. Contra player who bought 27-31/10 will suffer huge loss if they bought this share at these period. we can see FGV volume daily usually is 50,000 -100,000 lot, but started from 31th, volume increased 10 times approx 660,000 lot, today 400,000 lot..obviously it is over reacted which oversold.
1. Recently cpo increased dramatically this year mainly due to demand more than supply which seller had final said and winner.
2. Indonesia and malaysia almost control whole cpo world market 80% , so indonesia is our main competitor and we also know that indonesia had overtake us become No 1 in the world. Anyway from china import data , July to September , Malaysia export to china are increased and for Sep Malaysia overtake Indonesia become biggest exporter for cpo to china market . Facebook said robert kok limit malaysia cpo quota to china totally insult Robert kok images and reputation.
3. Data also show the india market for cpo demand is increased this few years, so far crude palm oil market mainly is asia market especially china and india.
4. Due to el-nino weather also main factor cause cpo output is less and reserve drop to 6 years lowest.
5. Weaker Currency for Rm usually will let malaysia become more competitive compared indonesia and probably main factor why china import more from our country.
This probably explain why our CPO price are quite stable and above expectation from Rm 1700 last years to Rm 2750- Rm 2800 currently.
Risk for FGV- debt is high, any buy over deal will increased the short and long term debt
Good news for FGV- pls refer above 5 point,
- political influence is high, government will back up
- 3rd quarter will announce soon, last years 3rd quarter is lose m33mil, this year price stable should had flying color results , election coming soon should be lot of sweets and sugars for the shareholder, otherwise a jib gor ass will not stable in the election.
- hope china trip will bring more good news especially for cpo quota which china willing to commit more and we can know by this week.
anyway, i had buy this share today and probably why i buy due to above my personal view . Pls don simply follow , probably will drop again tomorrow . Anyway pls don buy the share for short term or contra, too risky or simply confuse other investor sure drop or increase and put Target price. Pls trade ur own responsible. Good luck tomorrow.
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发表于 2-11-2016 01:13 PM
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